2016 NBA Draft Targets Rising and Falling Most in Early Conference Play
The new year has already been good to a handful of NBA prospects looking to strengthen their cases for the 2016 draft.
Two of them are seniors experiencing breakout years. The other two are projected one-and-done freshmen who've given scouts both flashes of potential and production to back it up.
On the other hand, we have just as many high-profile prospects struggling to sell themselves through the first two months. One was once projected as a top-three pick and now finds himself warming the bench. Another is a junior many expected to build on a solid sophomore season. Instead, he's been fairly quiet while his team continues to free fall.
With conference play underway, scouts can start putting a little more stock into player performances.
Rising: Brandon Ingram (Duke, SF, Freshman)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Top Two
Though unlikely to pass LSU's Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram has begun to separate himself from everyone else. He's arguably pulled away into a tier of his own as the No. 2 prospect in the country.
Ingram is averaging 20.6 points and 2.7 threes per game since Dec. 1. His offensive potential has consistently come to life over the past six weeks. We've seen everything from knockdown shooting to mid-range scoring to poster dunks off drives to defensive playmaking (10 blocks, five steals through three conference games).
His monster 7'3" wingspan plays a key role in practically every facet of the game. Ingram releases and finishes over defenders offensively. Meanwhile, his long arms reach into passing lanes and challenge shots around the basket.
His confidence is sky high right now, and it's allowed his upside to shine. You just don't see many 6'9" wings that can handle the ball, shoot and jump like Ingram.
Unless the wheels fall off during later conference play, expect Duke's prized freshman to stay cemented in this year's top-five mix.
Falling: Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, PF/C, Freshman)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Late Lottery
Though up is the only way to go, Skal Labissiere can't seem to budge from rock bottom. His latest effort lasted four minutes against Alabama on Saturday, when he picked up three fouls and a technical without scoring.
He now has one more rebound (49) than personal fouls (48) on the season. Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky's 6'3" guard, has a higher rebounding percentage than Labissiere, per Sports-Reference.com.
Labissiere has looked soft around the basket, where he struggles to get position or finish through contact.
Outside of a few uncontested dunks off pick-and-rolls or putbacks, his offense is nowhere to be found. He hasn't looked particularly sharp defensively, either—at least in terms of knowing when to help or rotate.
Some projected him as a No. 1 overall candidate heading into the year, thanks to his physical tools, bounce, post game and shooting touch. For Labissiere, it's still about long-term potential, which essentially acts as a free pass for the first few months. But it's going to expire unless he shows some signs of life in January and February.
Though he's a freshman, Labissiere turns 20 years old in March.
Rising: Ivan Rabb (California, PF, Freshman)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Top 10
Ivan Rabb has started the year off strong, having recently gone for 19 points and 10 boards against Utah before putting up 17 and eight against Oregon. Most recently, he double-doubled again against Oregon State on Saturday.
He's been active all season, but that activity has started translating into serious production.
"I'm learning the game," Rabb told the San Francisco Chronicle's Connor Letourneau. "I'm getting better every time I step on the floor, and I'm starting to become a better leader. That's what it's all about."
Athletic with great hands and an improved body and nose for the ball, Rabb continues to do damage around the basket, where he's finishing 79.7 percent of his shots at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com, and grabbing 13 rebounds per 40 minutes. He has 22 putbacks on the year.
Rabb has also showcased a blossoming post game consisting of fallaways, jump hooks and up-and-unders. His jumper looks super smooth, as well, both from mid-range (45.8 percent on two-point jumpers) and from the foul line (76.6 percent).
Still just 18 years old, Rabb has emerged as arguably California's most reliable and efficient contributor. He ranks fifth in the nation in PER among freshmen who are playing at least 20 minutes, per RealGM.com. I recently moved Rabb to the No. 5 spot in our latest 2016 mock draft.
Falling: Damian Jones (Vanderbilt, C, Junior)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Late First Round
This was supposed to be a big year for Vanderbilt and a breakout one for Damian Jones. Instead, Jones' numbers are down and the team keeps losing. The Commodores are 0-3 in conference play and lost four of their final seven games in 2015.
Most recently, Jones fouled out in 16 minutes at South Carolina on Saturday. He's had some nice moments that have highlighted big-time athleticism and some skills around the key, but he hasn't made the difference-making impact many expected.
He's also shooting below 60 percent from the line for the third consecutive year—a discouraging sign regarding his shooting development.
With below-average rebounding numbers (14.5 rebounding percentage, per Sports-Reference.com) and no obvious signs of offensive improvement, Jones must turn it on over the next few months to generate legitimate top-20 interest by June.
Rising: Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Late Lottery
Nobody in the country is playing at Buddy Hield's level.
He looks like a pro among college kids. Hield followed up his 46-point explosion against Kansas with a nonchalant 31 points in a win over Kansas State on Saturday.
The shooting clinics he's recently put on were insane. Hield has hit 14 of 23 threes over his last two games alone, and he is now converting at a 52 percent clip from three and is averaging 3.8 makes per game on the year.
Oozing with confidence, he's consistently shown he can hit contested shots, spot up from deep and step back into jumpers off the dribble.
You could argue his improved playmaking and ball-handling are just as important. While he's getting to the line (6.5 times per game) almost twice as often as last year (3.7), he's also done a better job of creating for teammates (12 assists over past two games, career-high 2.4 assists per game).
At 22 years old, Hield isn't an explosive athlete. He often settles on the perimeter and struggles turning the corner or finishing through length inside. But scouts should now feel better than ever about his eventual transition from college star to NBA role player.
Falling: Cheick Diallo (Kansas, PF/C, Freshman)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Mid- to Late First Round
Missing the first five games of the year didn't help, but Cheick Diallo is now eligible and still remains silent.
He's not in coach Bill Self's rotation, having totaled 14 minutes through three conference games. You can blame both a lack of polish and Kansas' deep, veteran roster. Either way, Diallo won't be able to sell NBA scouts from the bench.
And with the team winning games, Self may not have much incentive to make any changes to the rotation.
Diallo initially opened eyes last spring (MVP of McDonald's All-American game, co-MVP of Jordan Brand Classic) with his nonstop motor, high-flying athleticism and ability to impact games as a finisher, rebounder, shot-blocker and hustler. He doesn't need plays run for him.
But based on the last few weeks, Diallo is still clearly in the early stages of his development, averaging a ridiculous nine fouls per 40 minutes. And without much offensive upside—he's more of an energizer than a scorer—NBA teams may not feel the potential reward is worth the price of a high draft pick.
Rising: Brice Johnson (North Carolina, PF, Senior)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Mid- to Late First Round
Brice Johnson generated some buzz with his 39-point, 23-rebound outburst against Florida State. But the truth is Johnson has been an animal all season.
With effortless bounce and good energy, Johnson has converted an absurd 57 of 60 shots at the rim on the year, per Hoop-Math.com, He positions himself for easy buckets off guard penetration and offensive rebounds (27 putbacks through 17 games).
Even if he hasn't developed a proven jumper or polished post moves, Johnson has done a terrific job of selling himself as a potential energizer at the next level.
The fact that he's shooting 80 percent from the line—a good sign regarding his shooting touch—is just a cherry on top.
I'm not sure anyone considered him a first-round option before the season. Johnson now looks like a much better top-30 bet.
Falling: Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky, PG, Freshman)
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Updated Draft Range Projection: Second Round
Isaiah Briscoe is in a tough spot having to share the backcourt and ball with Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray. Regardless, Briscoe has done little to sell himself as a 2016 first-round prospect.
Known more as a scorer than a facilitator out of high school, Briscoe has statistically backed that up, considering he's sporting a negative pure point rating of minus-1.16, per RealGM.com. Only Briscoe hasn't made up for it with scoring production or flashes of offensive upside.
With an ugly 46.6 percent true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, Briscoe has shown almost no touch on his jumper. He's 4-of-22 from three (18.2 percent) and an embarrassing 18-of-53 (34 percent) from the free-throw line.
For a guard who plays mostly below the rim, it's imperative that Briscoe eventually develops some type of jumper.
He's a physical defender and a solid rebounder, but to play the NBA's most competitive position, Briscoe doesn't appear to offer enough offensively. His toughness should look more attractive in the second round than the first.
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