NFL Playoffs 2016: Updated Schedule and Divisional-Round Predictions
Four teams soldier on, and four teams are done for the season after a rousing Wild Card Round of the 2016 NFL playoffs—two days of football evoking all the ranges of emotions one can expect from great drama.
There was ecstasy and agony in Houston, as the Kansas City Chiefs rolled to a 30-0 win over the Texans, who had no chance with Brian Hoyer turning in one of the worst playoff performances you'll ever see from a quarterback. The Chiefs get New England next.
A costly fumble and 30 yards of unforgivable penalties saw the Cincinnati Bengals bungle away their home playoff game against rival Pittsburgh, losing 18-16 on a late field goal. The anger in Cincy was palpable, while the relieved Steelers now head to Denver.
After braving sub-zero temperatures for an entire afternoon, Minnesota Vikings fans were left with nothing but despair as kicker Blair Walsh's missed 27-yard field goal in the fourth quarter spared Seattle and allowed them to escape the frigid north with a 10-9 victory. The Seahawks, no doubt feeling fortunate, now must visit the 15-1 Carolina Panthers.
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Finally, the weekend ended with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers rediscovering their mojo en route to a 35-18 come-from-behind road win over the Washington Redskins. The Packers draw a dangerous Arizona squad.
Here's the updated schedule for the 2016 playoffs, followed by a few quick predictions for the divisional round.
| Time (ET) | Away | Home | TV |
| 4:35 p.m. | Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) | New England Patriots (12-4) | CBS |
| 8:15 p.m. | Green Bay Packers (11-6) | Arizona Cardinals (13-3) | NBC |
| 1:05 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks (11-6) | Carolina Panthers (15-1) | FOX |
| 4:40 p.m. | Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) | Denver Broncos (12-4) | FOX |
Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) vs. New England Patriots (12-4)
It's safe to say Tom Brady isn't going to a Hoyer-caliber meltdown against Kansas City in this divisional-round matchup. The esteemed veteran hardly seems capable of such a nadir. The Patriots will be that much tougher for Kansas City to beat because of this.
The Chiefs' sensational rookie cornerback Marcus Peters and miraculous veteran safety Eric Berry each picked off Hoyer on Saturday. Their abilities in coverage do well to complement a multi-pronged pass rush that features the likes of Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson (among others).
The Pats have been vulnerable to a strong pass rush at times this year, which makes team health all the more critical in this game. Even Brady would find it difficult to unlock a KC secondary without his full arsenal of pass-catchers available.
Luckily for him, Julian Edelman appears to be in line to play the Chiefs, according to 7News sports director Joe Amorosino (via FoxSports.com), which should help alleviate some of pressure on Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski. With linebackers and even safeties occupied by Edelman and Amendola's shorter routes, Gronk could have a big game working the seams. He's certainly excited to have Edelman back in the fold.
“Edelman is a great player, great guy,” Gronkowski said, per NESN.com's Doug Kyed. “So excited to have him back. He brings so much to this offense. He’s just a hard worker, brings a great attitude with the team. Just his work ethic is second to none.”
The Pats' run game is very much in question, as they could be relying heavily on 32-year-old Steven Jackson in this one. Jackson carried the ball 14 times for 35 yards in Week 17 against Miami. James White is available, but he's mostly a non-factor in the running game, instead playing the Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead-type role.
If New England is one-dimensional, Kansas City can unleash the full fury of its pass rush and likely force a turnover or two. Brady could suffer lingering effects from an ankle injury sustained in Week 17.
The Chiefs offense is in for a tough game against New England's resolute defense. The task will very nearly be too tall if wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is unavailable. ESPN's Adam Schefter noted Sunday his status is up in the air:
If Maclin is indeed absent or hobbled against New England's stud cornerback Malcom Butler, pitch-and-catch between Alex Smith and Travis Kelce isn't going to cut it. It will be ground game or bust for the Chiefs. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West are a formidable duo, but they face a tough test in New England's ninth-ranked run defense.
It's entirely possible the Patriots will have much more room for error in the divisional round. Smith hasn't even cracked 200 yards passing in his last six games.
Though there is an air of inevitability to the Chiefs after 11 straight wins, the same can be said about New England just about every single year. Look for the Pats to spoil the streak and earn a low-scoring win.
Prediction: New England 20, Kansas City 17
Seattle Seahawks (11-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (15-1)
Seattle certainly figured it's best to really be both lucky and good on Sunday. They were lucky in the sense that Walsh scuffed a field goal most kickers can hit in their sleep, and Russell Wilson is just darn good even when luck appears to have abandoned him. Here's the can't-miss play in which Wilson recovers an overhead snap to find Tyler Lockett for a big gain, per the NFL:
ESPN's Bill Barnwell had the perfect response to the unbelievable turn of events:
You might then be inclined to believe in Wilson and company upsetting top-seeded Carolina in the divisional round. Running back Christine Michael has provided the Seahawks with a steady ground the past two weeks, which can only help against the Panthers' marauding defense.
Wilson was hardly prolific against the resolute Vikings and the frigid elements, throwing for just 142 yards, one touchdown and one pick. However, one can expect Wilson to be throwing in much-better conditions in Charlotte than he did on Sunday, and he's been on a tear for the most part in the season's latter half.
This isn't to say beating the Panthers will be easy. Carolina has the obvious advantages of a week of rest and the comforts of home for the divisional round. Likely MVP Cam Newton is a menace both on the ground and through the air. He's a far greater threat than the ineffective Teddy Bridgewater.
The Panthers could see a boost on the ground game if Jonathan Stewart (989 yards, six rushing TDs) is able to play. He missed Carolina's last three games with a foot injury. Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer reported on January 4 that Stewart believes he'll be ready for this game. Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker have filled in admirably, but they lack Stewart's veteran savvy and ability to churn for extra yards.
Carolina's thin wide receiver corps has meant Newton spends an awful lot of time throwing the ball to tight end Greg Olsen, who will need to have a big game in order for Carolina to advance.
The Panthers did carve out a 27-23 win over Seattle in Week 5—a game in which the Olsen managed 131 yards and a touchdown. That said, this win was well before Wilson caught fire—the defense too for that matter, as ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia writes:
"In their past six road games, the defense has allowed a total of one touchdown. Against the Vikings, they held Adrian Peterson to 45 yards on 23 carries. Defensive end Michael Bennett was a disruptive force versus Minnesota, and the Seahawks will go into next week with health on their side.
Barring surprising injury news this week, they should go into Sunday's game against the Panthers with all 11 starters in uniform. Finishing was a problem the first time they met the Panthers, but the Seahawks' defense has improved, having finished first in the NFL in points allowed for the fourth straight season.
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Strong offenses like those of Carolina, Pittsburgh and Arizona (but only once) have gotten the better of the Seahawks this season, but they've been a different unit as of late. This time, Wilson will deliver the Seahawks to a win in another close, thrilling ballgame.
Prediction: Seattle 28, Carolina 23
Green Bay Packers (11-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
The decisive manner in which the Packers beat Washington on Sunday certainly has them pointing in the right direction and should give them some hope as they face a Cardinals team that waxed them 38-8 in Week 16.
Running backs Eddie Lacy and James Stark worked effectively in tandem, each scoring a rushing touchdown. Rodgers wasn't prolific, but he kept mistakes to a minimum and tossed two touchdown passes. After a sluggish start, the defense effectively neutralized Cousins and the Redskins' rushing attack.
Unfortunately for Green Bay, Arizona is simply a better team across the board than Washington. Rookie David Johnson is much more explosive than Alfred Morris, and MVP candidate Carson Palmer has three excellent receiving candidates in Michael Floyd, John Brown and of course Larry Fitzgerald.
Cousins did manage 329 yards passing against Green Bay. A similar outing for Palmer would prove difficult for Green Bay to overcome against Arizona's merciless defense.
A surging pass rush led by Calais Campbell and Dwight Freeney sacked Rodgers eight times in Week 16. Rodgers averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt against the Redskins. His consistency and ability to hit the deep pass will have to be on point to counteract the Cardinals' assault.
With Lacy and Starks both running well, Green Bay has a decent shot at wearing Arizona down a bit and opening up some play action or rollout calls for Rodgers.
The Packers will put up a much-better fight this time around, but won't find any redemption in the Southwest next Saturday.
Prediction: Arizona 31, Green Bay 19
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) vs. Denver Broncos (12-4)
The question here is obvious: just how healthy will Pittsburgh's biggest stars be in Denver?
Ben Roethlisberger picked up an apparent shoulder injury against Cincy, one that kept him out for a couple of drives late, though he did return at the end of the game. Antonio Brown suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter on a penalized hit from linebacker Vontaze Burfict (who was the tackler on the play that saw Big Ben injured).
According to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Roethlisberger is "day-to-day" for the Denver game. Dulac also had this to say about Brown:
"Also, All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown, who was put in concussion protocol after a hit to the helmet by Burfict following an incomplete pass, is said to be fine and should be able to play against the Broncos."
This is wonderful news for the Steelers, who needed big plays from both of those guys in a 34-27 win over a Brock Osweiler-led Denver in Week 15, though it doesn't address the running game. DeAngelo Williams' status is uncertain for the divisional round, according to NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport. He missed the Wild Card Round with a foot injury.
Fitzgerald Toussant was marginally effective against Cincinnati, though it should be said Jordan Todman managed a robust 5.9 yards per carry. Still, neither back possesses Williams' talent, which would come in handy against Denver's vaunted defense.
Williams managed just 1.9 yards per carry in Week 15 against Denver. The Steelers still won, but they won't want to again find themselves down 14 at halftime, especially not on the road in a playoff game.
The strength in Roethlisberger's arm and the presence of Williams will all but determine this game's outcome. Denver's defense would crush a short throw-only passing attack and middling ground game, no matter the brilliance of Brown and Martavis Bryant.
There is wiggle room in that previous paragraph for one reason, which is we have no idea which version of Peyton Manning turns up at Mile High Stadium. Manning is expected to start after taking over for a struggling Osweiler in Week 17 against San Diego and steering his team to a win.
If the Steelers get the error-prone, noodle-armed Manning we've seen this season, even a banged-up Steelers offense still very much has a chance (and a healthy one is in fine shape).
If Manning can play at merely competent levels and make a few of the brilliant reads it seems only he can process—and running backs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson prove competent—Pittsburgh's chances are slim.
Because of how vicious and truly taxing the Bengals game appeared to be, let's say Pittsburgh just doesn't have enough overall strength to grind out a win in hostile, high-altitude territory. Manning will keep the mistakes to a minimum, and Denver wins on a late Anderson touchdown.
Prediction: Denver 24, Pittsburgh 22
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