2016 NBA Mock Draft: How 1st-Round Projects Are Entering the New Year
With conference play underway, the projected 2016 NBA draft board has started to take shape.
And the No. 1 player only appears to be getting stronger by the week. We've also seen a few new names jump into the lottery mix—prospects who might not have even been considered first-round options just one month ago.
On the other hand, we've seen a few highly rated prospects from the summer begin to lose ground after underwhelming starts. One of them started in the top three and has suddenly fallen outside the top 10.
We used current NBA standings to create the draft order and accounted for previous trades that affect future picks.
1. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons (LSU, SF/PF, Freshman)
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I'd imagine there wouldn't be much debate among Philadelphia 76ers executives regarding the selection at No. 1.
Ben Simmons has separated himself from what could be a relatively underwhelming pack. And though his fit alongside two non-shooters in Philadelphia is worth addressing, chances are Sixers management will value Simmons over both Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor.
Simmons has been as good as advertised, putting up video game numbers through seven weeks: 20.1 points, 12.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.4 blocks. The stats are starting to look even better now that LSU is winning some games.
Simmons once again proved he could turn it on and take over, scoring 36 points in a win over Vanderbilt and making three straight buckets down the stretch to close out Kentucky.
He also showed his maturity. With his teammates making shots and the Tigers controlling the flow against the Wildcats, Simmons refrained from personal shot-hunting (despite not having many scoring chances) and kept the ball moving.
If Philadelphia wins the lottery, there shouldn't be much overthinking. It seems as if Simmons will have a better shot of developing into a franchise player than Okafor, Noel and Joel Embiid.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram (Duke, SF, Freshman)
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He won't be the Los Angeles Lakers' primary target entering the draft, but with Ben Simmons off the board, Brandon Ingram has quietly emerged as a quality second option.
Given his particular skill set and style of play, Ingram also looks like a fit for the Lakers, who'll need a new scoring wing next season.
He's averaged 21.3 points per game since December 1. Ingram, who stands 6'9" with a giant 7'3" wingspan, has recently destroyed defenses around the perimeter, where he's made 21 threes over his last eight games (44.7 percent). And he continues to create highlights above the rim with dunks off drives and takes in transition.
In between, he's even shown off a stop-and-pop and fallaway game in the mid-range.
Having just turned 18 years old, Ingram offers tons of long-term upside once his body begins to fill out. Unless Croatia's Dragan Bender drops jaws in workouts, I will have Duke's freshman star following Simmons at No. 2.
A 1-2-3 consisting of Jordan Clarkson, D'Angelo Russell and Ingram could eventually become a potent offensive trio.
3. Boston Celtics (via Nets): Dragan Bender (Croatia, PF, 1997)
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With a seemingly wide gap between Ingram and the next-best NCAA option, Dragan Bender becomes an attractive gamble.
At 18 years old, his upside, which is fueled by 7'1" size, a handle, jump shot and defensive versatility, should draw looks from every team that drafts in the top five.
He's too young to log consistent minutes right now with Maccabi Tel Aviv, but between previous FIBA events, Eurocamp and the occasional flashes in Euroleague, Bender has given scouts plenty to drool over since 2013.
He's even had a few big recent outings, having averaged 13.7 points in 22.7 minutes during the final three games of 2015.
You just don't see players his size who can put the ball on the floor and spot up from three (16-of-36 so far this season)—or switch off ball screens and protect the rim.
His ceiling is as high as anyone's in this year's field. Given the available options and the Celtics' current frontcourt, Bender and Boston already seem like a match.
4. New Orleans Pelicans: Kris Dunn (Providence, PG, Junior)
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Kris Dunn could be tough to pass on for the New Orleans Pelicans at No. 4. Jrue Holiday will enter the final year of his deal in 2016-17. And quite frankly, there just aren't any other no-brainer alternative options.
Dunn—6'4", 205 pounds, 6'9" wingspan, super quick—has a monster physical profile to match the playmaking and statistics.
He's leading the country in assist percentage for the second straight year, per Sports-Reference.com. Dunn's game revolves around setting the table and creating shots for teammates off ball screens, penetration and transition.
It's also worth noting that, after years of struggling as a shooter, he's 17-of-43 (39.5 percent) from deep through 14 games.
The Pelicans, who rank No. 29 in the league in defensive efficiency, per ESPN, should also value Dunn's ability to pressure the ball and force turnovers. His speed, length and anticipation translate to 3.2 steals per game, good for No. 2 in the nation.
5.. Minnesota Timberwolves: Ivan Rabb (California, PF, Freshman)
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Ivan Rabb's NBA potential was well-documented coming in—you just got the impression it would take some time.
Among freshmen who are playing at least 20 minutes, Rabb ranks fourth in the country in player efficiency rating, per RealGM.com.
Clearly more than just an athlete with size (6'11", 220 lbs), he's flashed mid-range touch (74.1 percent from the line), fallaway jumpers, up-and-unders and hook shots in the lane. And when given space to face up near the short corners or elbows, he has a quick rip through and first move toward the hoop.
With terrific hands, Rabb converts tough angles into easy buckets around the key, while his motor and nose for the ball help translate to 13.2 rebounds per 40 minutes.
He's only 18 years old and looks much stronger than he did this time last season. Arguably the biggest early riser of 2016, Rabb could be in play for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who need some extra bounce at the power forward position.
6. Phoenix Suns: Henry Ellenson (Marquette, PF, Freshman)
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In terms of national attention, Henry Ellenson just might be the most slept-on prospect in the country. He's as skilled and fundamentally sound as any of them, and with 6'10" size, three-point range, a post game and strong rebounding numbers (9.9 per game), his inside-out versatility seems NBA friendly for the stretch-4 position.
Per Hoop-Math.com, he's shooting 43.8 percent on two-point jumpers, which he knocks down off pick-and-pops, isolation and one-handers around the key. Meanwhile, he's hit 13 threes in 15 games and shoots 75.3 percent from the line.
As impressive as Ellenson's perimeter and mid-range games have looked, he's had some trouble finishing against length inside. Limited explosiveness and defensive potential cap his ceiling.
Still, his offensive game looks convincing early on. And he's played key roles in wins over Ben Simmons' LSU and Kris Dunn's Providence.
Ellenson seems like a strong bet to land in the lottery and is a possible replacement for Markieff Morris in Phoenix.
7. Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
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The Denver Nuggets have depth and commitments at just about every position, but their backcourt could use some extra firepower.
That should make Jamal Murray a strong candidate at No. 7, assuming he's in Denver's top-10 mix.
Murray has emerged as Kentucky's leading scorer, averaging 17.1 points and 2.6 threes per game. His ball skills look razor-sharp, from his handle, which powers his shot creativity and one-on-one game, to his shot-making ability and jumper. Lefty runners, 26-footers, off-balance layups—Murray converts tough looks night after night.
With his having totaled 44 turnovers to just 38 assists so far, we can probably start to forget about Murray the point guard. He tends to overdribble or experience tunnel vision and needs to improve his playmaking, shot selection and defense.
But there is no denying his knack for putting the ball in the hole. The Nuggets, along with a bunch of other teams, should value Murray's microwave scoring and shooting.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
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The numbers don't always tell the whole story. There is nothing wrong with Wade Baldwin's 14.7 points and 4.1 assists per game, but that's not what's going to eventually lead to lottery consideration for him.
Baldwin aces the NBA eye test with 6'3", 194-pound size, broad shoulders and an enormous 6'10" wingspan. He's a power guard with burst and extreme length.
An excellent defender, Baldwin is difficult to shake or turn the corner on. And he plays with a live motor and competitive edge.
He isn't given as much playmaking freedom as most other point guards across the country, and therefore, he doesn't put up big assist stats. But he can make all the right reads and passes. And unlike Kris Dunn, who's widely viewed as the best prospect at his position, Baldwin can really shoot, having made 43.9 percent of his looks from three as a freshman and 47.7 percent so far as a sophomore.
Like Russell Westbrook as a sophomore out of UCLA, where he averaged just 12.7 points and 4.3 assists before going No. 4 overall, Baldwin appears to have some hidden upside that the numbers don't show.
Look for his name to keep rising up boards through conference play into May and June, when he'll have a good chance to create even more buzz during the combine and predraft workouts.
9. Portland Trail Blazers: Jakob Poeltl (Utah, C, Sophomore)
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Jakob Poeltl would seem like a nice pickup for anyone at No. 9. There is a sense of security tied to his 7'0" size, athleticism and defensive strengths—qualities the Portland Trail Blazers in particular should value.
While his rim protection, interior presence and coordination originally led to 2015 first-round buzz, the strides he's made offensively have seemingly cemented Poeltl into this year's lottery discussion.
He's averaging 17.7 points on 68.7 percent shooting, having sharpened his post moves and left hand while remaining a pick-and-roll threat and putback machine (18 on the year, per Hoop-Math.com).
10. Sacramento Kings: Jaylen Brown (California, SF, Freshman)
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Jaylen Brown has a few holes in his game, but they haven't stopped him from producing, and they aren't threatening enough to kill his draft stock.
He's scored at least 17 points in four of California's last five outings. Brown is a monster in transition, where his handle and athleticism have already translated to 28 buckets at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com. While he struggles to create in the half court, he does a nice job of attacking and slashing through gaps and finishing through contact inside.
He needs work around the perimeter, where he's shooting 26.9 percent on two-point jumpers and 26.7 percent from three, per Hoop-Math.com.
Still, a shaky jumper at 19 years old won't scare off too many general managers. Brown has promising defensive tools (if he can stop fouling five times per 40 minutes), a sharp competitive edge and enormous room for offensive growth.
The Kings could use a two-way wing. As someone who seems like a low-risk, potentially high-reward option on draft night, Brown offers solid value anywhere outside the top five.
11. Washington Wizards: Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, PF/C, Freshman)
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I'm still banking on Skal Labissiere eventually figuring things out, but it's going to be tough for him to make up for the first seven weeks. Still, he strikes me as a one-and-done type who'll look to sell his potential over his production.
And much of that potential we saw from high school remains intact. Labissiere, who is 7'0" with quick feet, shooting touch and bounce, has the chance to develop into a post scorer, pick-and-pop shooter and versatile defender.
Labissiere has gotten pushed around inside, both under the boards and on the block, where he doesn't get great position. But a lack of confidence seems to be the biggest issue.
Once his confidence returns, I'd imagine his game will come with it.
Though he's no longer a must-draft top-five option, don't write off Labissiere just yet. If it turns out he's just blooming late, the Washington Wizards could get a steal here at No. 11.
12. Charlotte Hornets: Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
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There are no more complaints about Buddy Hield's production coming against lower-level competition. The 46-point bomb he dropped on Kansas eliminates that argument from skeptics' arsenals.
He's now putting up preposterous numbers on the season: 26.3 points per game on 50.2 percent from the floor, 50 percent from three (3.6 threes made per game) and 89.8 percent from the line.
Hield has also shown improvement as a playmaker and passer off the dribble, which bodes well for his transition from college star to NBA role player.
Only two teams right now take more threes per game than the Charlotte Hornets, except they're shooting just 34.7 percent from deep. Hield gives this group a much-needed shot-maker and a potential upgrade at the 2-guard position.
13: Toronto Raptors (via Knicks): Cheick Diallo (Kansas, PF/C, Freshman)
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The playing time hasn't been there for Cheick Diallo, but the activity has been. Per 40 minutes, he's averaging 22.8 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.7 blocks. Unfortunately, he's only getting 9.6 minutes per game.
Blame both a veteran lineup and lack of polish, although in flashes, he has shown he can knock down mid-range jumpers and shots out of the post.
Still, Diallo's identity revolves around his athleticism and motor, which translate to easy buckets, putbacks, rebounds and rim protection. He's a big man who can make plays on the ball without needing his number called.
14: Boston Celtics: Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, SG, Senior)
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With a proven three-point stroke and tremendous passing instincts, Denzel Valentine should fit in anywhere.
He's shooting 40 percent from deep and averaging 7.1 assists per game. I'm not sure his 18.5-point scoring average will translate, given his lack of quickness and explosiveness. But Valentine compensates with major versatility.
At 6'5", 220 pounds, he has 2-guard size with a tight handle, playmaking ability and a high basketball IQ.
Assuming the Celtics end up taking a teenager with the first of their three first-round picks, Valentine—a more NBA-ready contributor—would make sense at No. 14.
He's recovering from a minor knee problem, but he's expected back this month. Look for the buzz to pick right back up upon his return.
15: Utah Jazz: Furkan Korkmaz (Turkey, SG, 1997)
15 of 30Though he's only 18 years old and playing just 13.6 minutes per game overseas, Furkan Korkmaz's athleticism and shooting credentials are bound to result in first-round interest.
He's making 50 percent of his threes in the Turkish Basketball Super League and 41.2 percent in Euroleague. Meanwhile, in 33 FIBA games dating back to 2013, he's averaged 2.5 threes made per game and has shot 38.6 percent from deep.
While he does most of his work around the perimeter, where he can spot up or create his own shot off step-backs and pull-ups, Korkmaz's effortless bounce also translates to easy buckets in transition.
He's an ideal draft-and-stash play for a patient team that is unsatisfied with the available NCAA options.
16: Denver Nuggets (via Rockets): Deyonta Davis (Michigan State, PF, Freshman)
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Projecting Deyonta Davis in the first round means we expect breakout numbers during conference play.
"He's gonna be a hell of a player before we're done here—this year. Not next year," said coach Tom Izzo, per the Detroit Free Press' Joe Rexrode.
He's been terrific so far in 17.1 minutes per game, averaging 8.4 points, 5.3 boards and 2.3 blocks (or 19.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.3 blocks per 40 minutes).
Davis has a sound back-to-the-basket game and shows good poise in the post. And he's been a high-percentage finishing target at the rim, as well as a putback machine on the offensive glass. He leads the team with 18, per Hoop-Math.com.
At 6'10", 245 pounds with long arms and bounce, he stands out under the NBA lens. I have Davis, who turned 19 years old in December, emerging as one of the big 2016 risers from January to June.
17. Memphis Grizzlies: Timothe Luwawu (France, SF, 1995)
17 of 30After hitting a rough patch to close out 2015, Timothe Luwawu went off for 29 points, nine boards and five assists during his 2016 debut.
The breakout year continues. Luwawu, who played in France's second division last season, has emerged as the second-leading scorer in the Adriatic League with 15.2 points per game.
He's added the three-ball to the arsenal, having made 40 of them through 18 games. And with traditional 6'7" size, length and athleticism for an NBA wing, he looks capable of defending both 2-guards and small forwards.
Without any obvious answers on the board outside the lottery, Luwawu, who'll be 21 years old by the draft, could be a good gamble for a team that needs some extra pop from the 3.
18. Orlando Magic: Stephen Zimmerman (UNLV, C, Freshman)
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Stephen Zimmerman isn't exactly the focal point of UNLV's offense, but a limited role hasn't masked his glowing potential.
At 7'0", Zimmerman can move. He runs the floor and plays above the rim, while his shooting stroke, jump hook and passing instincts highlight impressive ball skills and feel.
Though not known for his interior presence coming into the year, he's averaging 13.2 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes.
Since he's likely a few years from being NBA-ready, it would take some guts to draft Zimmerman in the lottery. But he's a project worth taking on once all the flashy names are gone.
19. Detroit Pistons: Grayson Allen (Duke, SG, Sophomore)
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Grayson Allen's breakout continues to look legit, considering he's still scoring 20.8 points per game nearly two months into the season.
He's easily one of the top athletes in the draft. Allen's explosiveness helps make up for his average size (6'5") and wingspan (6'6 ½"). Meanwhile, he's draining 1.8 threes per game at a 41.5 percent clip and shooting 86.9 percent from the line, where he averages 7.1 free-throw attempts.
You get the impression Allen could make a career out of his ability to connect from deep and pick up easy points off drives and transition. He could work well in a supporting role alongside Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond in Detroit.
20. Indiana Pacers: Melo Trimble (Maryland, PG, Sophomore)
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Melo Trimble has looked awesome so far as a sophomore, showing improvement in areas that previously needed work.
He's raised his assist average to 5.7 from three while still putting up 14.4 points per game. Trimble has done a better job of using his handle and quickness to create looks for teammates. And he continues to prove himself as a shooter (38.8 percent from three) and pull-up scorer (40 percent two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com).
Limited explosiveness and defensive potential should keep Trimble out of the lottery discussion. But a team that could use some additional playmaking, firepower and backcourt depth might want to give him a look in the 20s.
Note: Trimble left Wednesday's game against Rutgers with a hamstring injury, but there haven't been any indications it's serious.
21. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks): Diamond Stone (Maryland, C, Freshman)
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Diamond Stone shook the radar with 39 points against Penn State during a showcase of physical strength, agility and soft hands.
You just can't teach his 6'11", 255-pound size and 7'3 ½" wingspan.
He's not going to wow with Hakeem Olajuwon-type post moves, but Stone can spin baseline, knock down jump hooks, put back misses and finish through contact.
Stone has been fairly consistent all season, having scored at least 10 points in nine of Maryland's last 10 games and shot 59.5 percent from the floor. He's also shooting 77.4 percent from the line, an encouraging sign regarding his mid-range touch.
Teams that are looking to beef up their front lines should consider Stone, who won't turn 19 years old until February. He's averaging 13.2 points and 5.5 rebounds in just 21.2 minutes per game.
22. Atlanta Hawks: Dwayne Bacon (Florida State, SG/SF, Freshman)
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Dwayne Bacon sure looks the part with 6'7" size, a solid 210-pound frame and above-the-rim athleticism. And he's putting up 17.2 points per game after recently going for 18 points and seven rebounds against North Carolina.
Back on December 29, he went for 24 points, including nailing the game-winner with 4.6 seconds left off an isolation pull-up jumper in the mid-range.
Bacon has a comfortable handle and does a nice job of getting to the rack and finishing through contact or improvising in the lane. He can create his own shot moving north, south, east or west, and he has enough range to knock down threes (made 13).
He reminds me of New York Knicks wing Arron Afflalo. With his NBA-caliber physical tools, the ability to score from all three levels and the production to back up the potential, Bacon has a real shot at being selected in the first round.
23. Toronto Raptors: Caris LeVert (Michigan, SG, Senior)
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Though I'd grade Caris LeVert as a late-lottery talent, the recent injury news is troubling, considering it happened to the "lower left leg"—the same leg that carries the foot that doctors have operated on twice in two years.
Otherwise, he's been having an excellent year, averaging 17.6 points and a terrific 5.2 assists while shooting at least 40 percent from three for the third consecutive season.
LeVert's versatility seems tailor-made for the NBA. With 6'7" size, long arms and smooth athleticism, he has wing size and terrific playmaking ability out of pick-and-rolls and isolation. And he comes with a proven long-range stroke.
Unfortunately, foot injuries are scary, especially reoccurring ones. Expect teams to dive deep into LeVert's medicals come draft night, which could mean a slide down the board.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat): Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame, PG, Junior)
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Demetrius Jackson has been steady during his first year as the lead guard for the Irish. Averaging 16.4 points and 5.2 assists on 50.6 percent shooting, he takes good shots, moves the ball and rarely turns it over (2.3 times per 40 minutes).
His last step is more explosive than his first, and he isn't a flashy playmaker in the half court. But Jackson does make the right reads and passes within Notre Dame's offense. And he's sharp around the perimeter, where he steps into pull-ups and continues to sink threes at a high rate (41.4 percent).
Though just 6'1" without much length, he compensates for size with strength, explosiveness and shooting ability. Expect the Eric Bledsoe comparisons to heat up closer to draft time.
25. Chicago Bulls: Damian Jones (Vanderbilt, C, Junior)
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Damian Jones has been relatively quiet for a kid who's already announced he'll enter the 2016 NBA draft. And Vanderbilt's six losses don't reflect favorably on him, either.
The good news: Jones is coming off his best game of the season against Arkansas on Tuesday, when he went for 24 points, 15 rebounds and the game-tying dunk at the regulation buzzer.
At 7'0", Jones has terrific physical tools and above-the-rim athleticism. He's even flashed legitimate offensive game with fallaway jumpers, jump hooks and tough finishes.
But until he can string together some consistency, Jones will continue to be viewed as a project. Still, because of his room for growth (upside), he'll be worth gambling on late in the first round.
26. Los Angeles Clippers: Brice Johnson (North Carolina, PF, Senior)
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Brice Johnson was having a breakout year even before his 39-point, 23-rebound outburst against Florida State on Monday.
He's playing with more bounce to his step, and it's translating to extra opportunities for easy buckets. Johnson, a terrific athlete who can really jump, has made an incredible 53 of 56 shots at the rim so far, per Hoop-Math.com. He already has 27 putbacks on the offensive glass, the most of any of our first-round prospects.
While Johnson's projected NBA role is as an energizer who runs, rebounds and finishes, it's also nice to see him shooting 80.6 percent from the line.
27. Philadelphia 76ers (via Thunder): Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga, PF, Sophomore)
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Despite putting up big numbers at Gonzaga, Domantas Sabonis doesn't protect the rim or stretch the floor. Still, late-first-round teams that are looking for a specialist could end up with value in the 6'11", 240-pound power forward.
He has a strong nose for the ball and rim. Sabonis scores at awkward angles around the basket and brings down 10.6 rebounds per game. His offensive game from foul line to baseline has also improved significantly. He's even made a three and shot 82.6 percent from the line.
Sabonis has had a few monster lines as of late, going for 36 points and 16 boards against Tennessee on December 19 and 35 points and 14 rebounds at San Francisco on January 2.
Short arms, average athleticism and limited shooting range work against him. But his energy and activity are worth a look in the 20s.
28. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers): Kahlil Felder (Oakland, PG, Junior)
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Having put up 38 points against Washington, 37 against Michigan State and 30 against Virginia, Kahlil Felder deserves to be taken seriously. The fact that he also leads the country in assists only strengthens his case as a potential NBA playmaker.
Felder has a good feel for setting the table off ball screens and penetration.
And though just 5'9", he compensates with a strong frame, blazing quickness and the ability to hang in the air. He's fifth in the country in free throws made and attempted, a stat that highlights his ability to blow by defenders and beat rim protectors to the spot. Plus, he shoots 38.9 percent from behind the arc, where he sinks 2.5 threes per game.
Averaging 26.1 points and 9.2 assists with huge games against quality opponents, Felder is worth a late-first-round look to see if Isaiah Thomas 2.0 has arrived.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Pascal Siakam (New Mexico State, PF, Sophomore)
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Pascal Siakam hasn't made national headlines with his 23.3 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. And though most of his production has come against low-level competition, his physical tools (6'9", 230 lbs), athleticism and motor pass the eye test.
Plus, he did go for 26 points and 10 rebounds against Baylor two weeks ago.
Siakam runs the floor, plays high above the rim and covers ground on defense. And though not a shooter, he has shown he can make mid-range shots and free throws (career 74.2 percent).
One of the more under-the-radar stars in the country, Siakam could be a sneaky late-first-round play if he chooses to declare this summer.
30. Golden State Warriors: Taurean Prince (Baylor, SF, Senior)
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Taurean Prince has been productive but inconsistent, having followed a number of big performances with duds. He recently blew up for 34 points against New Mexico State before shooting 2-of-12 against Texas Southern and 2-of-6 against Kansas.
The up-and-down play could hurt his chances of jumping up draft boards, but it shouldn't knock him out of the first-round conversation.
At 6'7", 220 pounds, Prince has textbook size for an NBA wing. He's making 1.4 threes per game and shooting 82.8 percent from the line. And he's made strides as a passer and playmaker—Prince already has as many assists (42) as he had all of last season.
As a potential three-and-D ball-mover or small-ball 4, he's worth considering with one of the last few picks of the first round.
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