Atletico Madrid Straddle Line Between Luck and Judgement in La Liga Title Race

One year and seven months later, Atletico Madrid are top of La Liga as outright leaders.

Go back to when Diego Godin planted his header in the back of Jose Pinto's net in the 49th minute at Camp Nou, on May 17, 2014.

It sent Atletico Madrid top of the league and when they held on against Barcelona until the full-time whistle, they were crowned champions for the first time since 1996.

Since then, they have not led the Spanish top flight outright. Until now.

Thomas Partey's goal in the 81st minute against Levante on Saturday night helped the Rojiblancos capitalise on Barcelona's slip-up against Espanyol earlier on Saturday, putting them two points clear of the Catalans.

After 18 games, Atletico have 41 points, though Luis Enrique's side have a game in hand that could see them usurp Diego Simeone's men.

When you look at how Atletico have made it back to the summit of La Liga, it's hard to know whether it's by luck or judgement. The reality is it's probably a bit of both.

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Simeone chose to throw on Partey for Jackson Martinez against Levante, with the Colombian forgivably unimpressive, given this was his first start since the beginning of November after injury.

With the clock ticking beyond the 73rd minute, Simeone decided Partey was the man to help Atletico make the breakthrough, rather than Fernando Torres, who was sitting on the bench.

That was a big call from the coach, even if most people who have seen Torres play over the previous couple of months wouldn't consider him a viable option for a goal.

But for Simeone, who has stood by his man through thick and thin, to pick Partey was a big moment. And the right call. That's the judgement. Then came the luck. 

Partey played a key part in Atletico's win over Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday, coming on from the bench to set up the opening goal for Angel Correa, and here he became the goalscorer rather than the goal-maker.

He exchanged passes with Gabi and jinked his way into the area, firing a low but weak shot at goal.

Fortunately for him, for Simeone and for Atletico, Levante goalkeeper Diego Marino made a hash of it, palming the ball onto himself and back into the net.

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It doesn't matter how you score, just that you do, of course. Partey exploded, leaping into the air in front of Atletico fans doing the same thing.

If at the end of the season, Atletico are top, then Simeone and the players will deservedly take all the credit.

Even moments laced with luck only come about if you do enough of the groundwork to get in those positions in the first place.

If Partey had lashed the ball into the top corner, instead of scuffing his shot, there would be no debate, his introduction would have been hailed as a masterstroke by Cholo.

There is an art to what Simeone is doing; winning games late and not allowing the opposition time to force their way back into contention.

And all the while he is rotating his players and keeping some key men fresh for the back-end of the season.

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At the same time, Atletico have been lucky that things have gone their way in some games. By utilising the same strategies they could easily have failed to win against Levante and Rayo.

They also came from behind against Athletic Bilbao in December, with Griezmann winning it 23 minutes from time.

There is no doubt that part of what Atletico have accomplished, to be top of La Liga, is down to a combination of judgement and luck. The question is where the divide lies.

Given the brilliant man-management of Simeone, the effort and desire he manages to extract from his players and the qualities his squad has, while not featuring any outright superstars, you would lean towards more of the former.

Tests will come in the months ahead, with the trip to the Camp Nou at the end of January and the visit to the Santiago Bernabeu at the end of February.

There is no luck there. Just judgement.