Miami Heat Believe They Have (Just) Enough Shooting to Be Elite
MIAMI — Each night, Miami Heat drivers, cutters and post scorers struggle to find air bubbles amid the suffocating mass of bodies overcrowding the paint.
The team has still found a way to win more games (18) than it loses (13), but offensive possessions often play out like precarious high-wire acts.
The Heat know their offensive bread is buttered at the basket, but opposing defenses do, too.
A Glitch in the System
The three ball has become the lifeblood of modern NBA attacks. Not only does the shot itself bring the benefit of an extra point, but the mere threat of it also spreads defenses thin and creates optimal offensive real estate.
Miami has rarely enjoyed that luxury. It hasn't managed to find volume (6.7 makes per game, 26th) nor efficiency (33.2 percent, tied for 24th) from distance. The former may always be an issue, as this roster was largely constructed to play inside the arc. But that can be a challenging style to play without the latter.
"Of course we know that we're a driving and attacking team...," forward Chris Bosh said. "But the three-pointer is a weapon everybody uses nowadays. We have to stay within our identity. But, at the same time, that's going to be a very important shot for us. Guys are going to be open, and that's a dangerous weapon if we can knock them down consistently."
That's a massive if because guys have been open and the Heat can collapse opposing defenses at will.
They get 9.3 points per game off drives by Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic alone. Hassan Whiteside casts a gravitational pull when exploding to the basket as a pick-and-roll finisher ranked in the 90th percentile. Bosh is spending more time on the perimeter than ever, but he's still an exceptionally tough cover underneath (72.4 percent shooting at the rim).
All of that interior action means there are outside opportunities waiting to be exploited. Of the Heat's 20.2 three-point attempts per game, only 3.2 are launched with a defender closer than four feet.
The system is doing its job.
"I've been fine with the three-point looks all season long," head coach Erik Spoelstra said.
The Problem is Real
Unfortunately, shot creation is only half the battle. Actually hitting them is what matters, and that's the part of the equation giving Miami problems.
The Heat are shooting just 31.6 percent with the closest defender four to six feet away. That's just 0.1 percentage points north of the league's worst overall conversion rate. When defenders are six-plus feet away, that number climbs to 36.1. That's still only a shade above the league average of 35.0.
This might sound like an isolated problem with Miami's wayward shooters (because it is), but the effects are felt team-wide. When one part of the offensive assembly lines isn't clicking, the rest has to work harder and less efficiently.
That's why Wade is on course to post the worst field-goal percentage of his career (46.1). That's why Dragic, a 50-plus percent shooter the previous two seasons, is currently hitting at only a 44.9 percent clip. That's why Bosh could be headed toward the third-worst shooting campaign of his 13-year tenure (46.9).
"We need to take care of our spacing," Dragic said. "Sometimes we have too many guys inside the paint, and we hurt ourselves."
Mediocre Would Equal Excellence
No one's expecting the Heat to suddenly turn incendiary from distance, and, frankly, that's not necessary for them to rub elbows with the NBA's elite. A mediocre aerial attack would more than suffice.
The Heat are nearly unbeatable when they're simply competent from downtown.
When they shoot 35 percent or better from distance, they're 8-3. They have an 11-5 record when they match or surpass their opponent's three-point total and a 7-8 mark when they don't.
"When we're in rhythm, we're pretty good," Bosh said. "When we're not in rhythm, we stink. Plain and simple as that."
The numbers bear truth to Bosh's words. Miami has shot 36.3 percent from deep in wins, 28.3 in losses.
This will likely be a season-long struggle. Of the eight players who have attempted at least 20 triples, only two are better than 36 percent shooters for their careers: the streaky Gerald Green (36.6) and sophomore Tyler Johnson (41.1).
Inside the locker room, though, there's a belief that this group has enough gunners to survive.
"Lu [Luol Deng] is a good three-point shooter," Wade said. "Gerald is a good three-point shooter. Chris, as well. It's a long season, so guys are going to go through times when they're not making as many. And then you're going to go through times when you're making more than your fair share."
There all always ebbs and flows over an 82-game campaign. But when the good nights are average and the bad ones several steps below it, the diagnosis runs much deeper than a rough patch.
In the grand scheme of things, that means a story is still being written. Miami's eighth-ranked defense is strong enough to keep it near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, and its 12th-ranked offense is finding ways to make this throwback style work.
Still, a modern offense with minimal shooting has no margin for error.
Change could be needed to increase Miami's odds of holding full-fledged elite status. That could be as simple as redistributing the three-point looks (a tighter leash on Green, a longer one for Johnson) or as dramatic as finding help outside the organization—though that'd be tricky with the franchise looking to cut costs and increase spending power for 2016 free agency.
For now, the height of this team's ceiling and the likelihood of it being reached both remain a mystery.
"We don't know what this team is going to be yet; we are figuring it out together," Wade said. "You guys see it on a nightly basis; no one knows."
It feels safe to assume this group won't rocket up the leaderboard in three-point makes or takes. Without that unlikely leap, the Heat have a steep uphill climb in their quest to jump from good to great.
All quotes obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Dec. 29.
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