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Duke Basketball: 5 Things Blue Devils Must Prove in Conference Play

Brian PedersenJan 3, 2016

It was a relatively easy start to ACC play for Duke, which opened the league schedule on Saturday with an 81-64 win at Boston College. The Eagles were picked to finish dead last in the conference, though, so not much can be taken from that victory.

Things will get much tougher in the ACC for the Blue Devils, starting with Wednesday's trip to Wake Forest and continuing on until March.

As good as Duke looked on Saturday, shooting 55 percent and leading comfortably almost throughout, there are some things it still has to prove in order to be a true contender in the ACC.

It Won't Tire Out

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Until forward Amile Jefferson is able to return from his foot injury, Duke is going to be incredibly thin in terms of players it can use for meaningful minutes. On Saturday, six players combined for 193 of the 200 possible minutes and four starters logged at least 34 minutes.

Duke is rotating four guards at the three backcourt positions, with Brandon Ingram and Marshall Plumlee basically handling every second of frontcourt playing time.

Freshman Chase Jeter played six minutes in this last game, dropping him to 9.2 per outingstill a long ways away from being someone coach Mike Krzyzewski can rely on.

The use of a zone defense is helping to cut down on fatigue on the defensive end, but at some point, the Blue Devils could wear down. How they handle such exhaustion will be key.

It Can Defend Without Fouling

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Another facet of the thin lineup that Duke has to pay close attention to is foul trouble. With only six players in the rotation, the team picking up early fouls can completely alter the game plan.

The Blue Devils held Boston College to 42.9 percent shooting, including 36 percent in the first half, despite three of guards picking up their second foul in the first half.

Freshman Luke Kennard had two fouls with 14 minutes and six seconds left in the first half. He was limited to only 10 minutes before halftime because of this. But in the final 20 minutes, he played 17 minutes and scored 11 points with just one additional foul.

Both Plumlee and Ingram managed to make it until the final eight minutes of the second half before getting to their second foul, and none of Duke's players ended up with more than three.

If this trend can continue, the Blue Devils will be able to remain aggressive on offense knowing they aren't at risk of adding to fouls gained on the defensive end.

It Can Share the Ball

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Duke assisted on 14 of 27 made field goals against Boston College, which marked the second straight game in which it has achieved an assist rate of better than 50 percent.

For the season, the Blue Devils' 44.7 percent assist rate still ranks in the bottom 20 nationally.

Sophomore guard Grayson Allen, the team leader in scoring (20.6 points per game), is also the team leader with an assist percentage of 19.1 percent. That means he's assisting on less than one in every five shots made by teammates while he's on the court, which is understandable since he's the team's top scorer.

But since his 3.6 assists per game are also the best on the Blue Devils, it shows that too much one-on-one basketball is happening.

To contrast, Division I assist percentage leader Kris Dunn of Providence assists on 57.3 percent of teammates' made baskets.

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It Can Come Through at the Line

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Foul shooting is on the upswing for Duke, ranking 92nd nationally at 71.8 percent, partly because poor free-throw shooter Amile Jefferson has been out of action for the last five games. He was making 55.3 percent of his foul shots, with only center Marshall Plumlee (52.6 percent) worse than him among regulars.

With Duke's ability to have numerous players drive toward the basket, strong foul shooting is imperative. It will also be crucial late in games when opponents try to extend the game by sending the Blue Devils to the line.

They were 19-of-30 from the line against Boston College, a 63.3 percent rate that was fourth-worst this season. It didn't matter against the Eagles, but such struggles could be an issue in tighter games as the ACC slate continues.

It Can Stay Hungry, but Also Healthy

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The last thing head coach Mike Krzyzewski wants to do is tell his players to cool it in the intensity department, but for the sake of Duke's depth right now, it has to avoid injury.

The Blue Devils had a major scare midway through the Boston College win when Grayson Allen went coast to coast after stealing the ball, finishing with a strong dunk but then crashing to the floor. He appeared to hit his head on the way down and stayed down for several seconds.

Thankfully, he was back in action after the TV timeout.

Duke loves the way Allen plays, never taking a second off, but he also has to be careful not to put himself in harm's way. The same goes for everyone who's playing right now.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.

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