Alamo Bowl Betting: Oregon vs. TCU Odds, Analysis and Pick

TCU is 7-2 in its last nine bowl appearances and 5-4 against the spread; Oregon is 4-1 both straight up and ATS over its last five bowl games. In one of the more underrated matchups of this bowl season, the Horned Frogs hook up with the Ducks in the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, January 2.

Alamo Bowl point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.8-42.7 Horned Frogs

Why the Ducks can cover the spread

After struggling through a good part of the early season with a new (and injured) quarterback, Oregon got hot in the second half and won its last six games in a row, nearly stealing the Pac-12 North.

The Ducks started just 3-3 this season, losing by a field goal at eventual Big Ten champion Michigan State and, without starting quarterback Vernon Adams, in double overtime to what turned out to be a pretty good Washington State team.

But Adams returned, and Oregon rolled from there, winning six straight, including an upset of Stanford down on the Farm and a 20-point drubbing of USC, covering five of its last six spreads.

Along the way, Adams found a groove, throwing 21 touchdown passes over those last six games against just four interceptions.

On the season, the Ducks rank sixth in the country in total offense and fifth in rushing while averaging 43 points per game. They're also 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as underdogs.

Why the Horned Frogs can cover the spread

TCU started 8-0 this season, rolling over most foes and hitting the 50-point mark five times. But the injury bug took a bite out of the Frogs, and they fell at Oklahoma State. They then lost onetime Heisman front-runner Trevone Boykin to an ankle injury. They sneaked by Kansas but then lost at Oklahoma by a point in a gallant effort as 18-point underdogs, falling out of contention in the Big 12.

TCU then got Boykin back for the season finale against Baylor and beat the Bears 28-21 in double overtime.

The Frogs got outgained and outrushed by Baylor, but before Boykin got hurt, TCU had outgained and outrushed every opponent this season. Boykin is expected to start this bowl game and possibly add to the 40 touchdowns he's already accounted for this year.

For the season, the Frogs rank third in the country in total offense while averaging 41 points per game.

Smart pick

Oregon finished hot, while TCU stumbled down the stretch. And the Frogs are without leading receiver Josh Doctson. The smart money here swims with the Ducks.

Betting trends

• Oregon is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games in January.
• Oregon is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five bowl games.
• TCU is 7-2 SU in its last nine bowl games.
• The favorite has won SU in seven of the last nine Alamo Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.