UFC on Fox 17: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Don't unplug for the holidays just yet.
I know, I know. Work is winding down, the nog is calling, there's more shopping to do and there were eleventy billion UFCs last weekend. I get it.
But if you knuckle down just a little bit longer, I promise that thou shalt be rewarded.
UFC on Fox 17 goes down this Saturday from Orlando, Florida. It's all free and it's topped off with one of the best fights of this busy UFC season: a rematch between lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos and challenger Donald Cerrone.
It's just one of four fights on "big" Fox for the evening's main card. And because we never snooze, our Bleacher Report MMA staff predictions team is here with the picks and breakdowns. Craig Amos. Nathan McCarter. Steven Rondina. Jonathan Snowden. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Randa Markos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
1 of 4
Craig Amos
This isn't an easy test for The Ultimate Fighter fan favorite Randa Markos, but she does enter with the advantage of having faced much stiffer competition than Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Don't be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.
Markos, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I love this matchup, as it'll tell us a lot about both women. Even though they're both Top 10 level fighters, they're still young and developing. I lean toward Markos' ground game being the difference.
Markos, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
This is one of those fights that shows how hard it is to pick fights in the strawweight division. Markos is highly regarded due to her underdog run on TUF 20, where she beat Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig. Kowalkiewicz is highly regarded due to her impressive run in KSW. There's cause to brush off and/or buy into either woman, which really makes this a toss-up. I'll lean toward Markos because her wrestling skills give her a higher likelihood of taking a decision.
Markos, unanimous decision
Jonathan Snowden
Markos battled a collection of mean girls on The Ultimate Fighter and it appears the UFC chose sides. How else could you explain this matchmaking? Kowalkiewicz is one of the best fighters in the division that no one has ever heard of. That's about to change.
Kowalkiewicz, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Kowalkiewicz is a nice prospect, and I think she'll make some hay in the UFC. But she doesn't stand out in any particular area, including wrestling. Markos does. Sometimes the equation balances itself.
Markos, unanimous decision
Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz
2 of 4
Amos
Nate Diaz's only win since 2012 came against a worn-down Gray Maynard. He remains a dangerous fighter, but Michael Johnson has been excellent lately, even after dropping a split decision to Beneil Dariush this summer. The Menace will cruise to a decision win.
Johnson, unanimous decision
McCarter
Johnson's progression since TUF has been fun to watch. He's much more diversified than Diaz, and as long as he fights smart he should take this fight.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Rondina
It's tough to pin down how good Diaz really is. Unfortunately for him, it isn't tough to pin down how good Johnson is.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Snowden
I may lose all my street cred in Stockton, California, but not even my inner fan boy can visualize a Diaz win here. This is a terrible fight for him, a clear punishment for making life for the Zuffa brass difficult over the years.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Harris
It's been about a full year since Diaz last competed, and this is not a nice welcome-back gift. It's almost like the UFC doesn't like the Diaz brothers very much. Johnson will use his wrestling and improving boxing to wear down and outclass the younger Diaz.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2
Junior Dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem
3 of 4
Amos
Alistair Overeem has fought with more caution of late, and it's helped him piece together a pair of wins. Employing that tactic might help him survive a round with Junior dos Santos, but eventually the Brazilian will find the target with something hard and bring the fight to an abrupt conclusion.
dos Santos, KO, Rd. 2
McCarter
Overeem has always had a glass jaw, and dos Santos is one of the best strikers in the division. You can see where I'm going with this. I can't see Overeem surviving three rounds without eating it.
dos Santos, KO, Rd. 1
Rondina
Overeem's stance leaves him open to big shots down the middle, and every UFC loss Overeem has on his record came right down the pipe. Guess what dos Santos' specialty is?
dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 1
Snowden
Overeem is the better fighter in the clinch and at distance. But many fights are won and lost in the no-man's land in between. It's there that dos Santos will land a punch that sends the big Dutchman to the mat.
dos Santos, KO, Rd. 2
Harris
Old Junior Two Saints over there went from 27 to 45 in the span of like six months. His recent battles have aged him. We'll see how much pop dos Santos has in his hands and how much quickness he has in his feet when he tangles with Overeem, over whom there is little doubt: dangerous but diminished.
dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 2
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Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone
4 of 4
Amos
Donald Cerrone has shown improvement since losing to Rafael dos Anjos in 2013, but it's not like dos Anjos has stagnated since then. It'll be competitive, but the lightweight strap will leave on the same shoulder that it rides in on.
dos Anjos, unanimous decision
McCarter
Dos Anjos is a very good fighter, but I am still trying to believe he is championship material. I just can't seem to get there. Cerrone needs to be successful early, and I think he will be.
Cerrone, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Man, this is a tough one...I know it's been coming back to bite me lately, but CHAMPIONSHIP ADVANTAGE!
dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Snowden
One glance at the event poster tells you exactly what the UFC wants to see happen. A giant image of Cerrone dominates, with the champion's tiny head making only a cameo. But, as the Stones so famously sang, you can't always get what you want. Dos Anjos will push Cerrone into the cage and make his life miserable for 25 minutes.
dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Harris
No matter who wins, a lot of people are going to be left shaking their heads over why they keep doubting the winner in the face of so much evidence against doing so. Despite being the UFC's most anonymous champion at the moment, dos Anjos is strong, skilled and well-rounded. Cerrone is getting better all the time, with his muay thai more razor sharp than ever. If he wins this, he'll be four for 2015, not to mention—finally—a champion. With so much change in the air these past few months in the UFC, I have to give the nod to Cowboy.
Cerrone, TKO, Rd. 1
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