NBA Draft 2016: Buying or Selling Hot Starts from Surprising Prospects
Every year, we see players get off to surprisingly hot starts and naturally enter the NBA draft conversation.
But not all of them stick. In many cases, prospects will perform well early against inferior nonconference competition before hitting the wall in January and losing some of their luster.
On the other hand, for some prospects, strong Novembers and Decembers are the result of serious development or previously hidden NBA potential (like D'Angelo Russell last year).
I decided whether the following players' hot starts have been fluky or legitimate with regard to their chances of emerging as 2016 first-round options.
Jakob Poeltl (Utah, C, Sophomore)
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Jakob Poeltl hit the 20-point mark just once his freshman year. He's already reached it four times during Utah's first 10 games so far this season.
The Utes haven't played anyone of real substance yet, raising the question of whether Poeltl's production can mostly be credited to mediocre competition.
But I'm buying the new Poeltl, who's suddenly become a featured option in the post equipped with go-to moves and counters. His footwork, touch and overall fluidity each look better, even if he hasn't matched up with an NBA-caliber center.
Poeltl has started commanding double-teams playing back to the basket, where he's unleashed various jump hooks and up-and-unders. And he's converted a few one-to-two dribble drives facing up, showing better body control operating on the move with the ball in his hands.
The fact that he's already made 47 free throws through 10 games after making just 55 all of last year is another encouraging sign regarding Poeltl's improved feel.
Bank on Poeltl drawing top-10 interest this upcoming June.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
2 of 10
Buddy Hield took a while last spring to announce he'd return instead of declare. And he's started his final season on fire averaging 22.1 points on 21 of 42 from three.
But I wouldn't buy into Hield just yet as a surefire NBA asset. At 6'4", he's slightly undersized for a non-playmaking 2-guard with a jump-shot heavy shot selection.
He's never averaged more than two assists or been overly efficient inside the arc (45.2 percent this season), and though he plays with passion and intensity, he's going to have a lot bigger and quicker NBA assignments on defense at his position.
Hield should have a chance to become a shot-making, shooting specialist, but his margin for error won't be very high.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, PG/SG, Senior)
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There had never been much NBA buzz tied to Denzel Valentine through three years at Michigan State. He'd taken steps with every season, but none onto the first-round radar.
Four weeks into his senior campaign, Valentine has arguably jumped out as the favorite for National Player of the Year, averaging 18.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.2 assists for the No. 1 team in the country.
And NBA scouts should buy in.
Valentine does a number of things well, particularly shooting and passing, that should translate and hold value in a supporting NBA role.
At this stage, he looks like a proven shooter, having made 102 threes at a 41.6 percent clip as a junior and already shot 33-of-85 from deep through 11 games. Meanwhile, his current 45.7 percent assist percentage ranks No. 2 in the country, per Sports-Reference.com.
Valentine isn't breakdown quick, but at 6'5", 220 pounds, his size and skill set should work from the 2-guard position, where he can spread the floor and operate as a secondary ball-handler.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
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Wade Baldwin IV has been one of the breakout names in this year's draft conversation. He's emerged as Vanderbilt's leading scorer, averaging 15.3 points. Baldwin has been money from outside (14 of 28 from three) and a weapon in transition.
But it's not the numbers that have me buying in. Baldwin, who's 6'3", 194 pounds with an enormous 6'10" wingspan, has terrific NBA tools and a balanced overall attack, from his driving and shooting to his tough-angle finishing ability and defense.
Don't let the pedestrian assist numbers (three per game) fool you. Baldwin projects as a scoring point guard capable of making the right reads as a passer, putting pressure on the rim and capitalizing around the perimeter.
Look for his name to continue rising up boards as the season progresses.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Ivan Rabb (California, PF, Freshman)
5 of 10
Ivan Rabb has given California an immediate presence around the basket. And with 6'11" size, quick feet, terrific hands and plenty of bounce, he passes the NBA eye test.
Coming in, the big question was whether he'd be ready, given his perceived raw offensive game and 220-pound frame. But Rabb looks more skilled and physically toned than he'd been given credit for.
He's averaging 19.8 points and 13.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, having shown off post moves—jump hooks and fallaway jumpers—and touch (75 percent from the line), as well as a good nose for loose balls (15 putbacks, per Hoop-Math.com).
And he's still just 18 years old. Rabb won't be in Rookie of the Year contention next season (assuming he goes the one-and-done route), but his long-term potential appears convincing enough to chase and reach on in the lottery.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Dwayne Bacon (Florida State, SG, Freshman)
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Dwayne Bacon got off to hot a start, and quite frankly, he looks the part with 6'6" 2-guard size and bounce.
He's averaging 16.2 points and has already gone for at least 20 on four separate occasions. But Bacon has ultimately leaned heavily on his physical tools and athleticism. More than half (30 of 55) of his made field goals have come in transition, per Hoop-Math.com, while he's struggled shooting from outside (30.8 percent from three).
He's also racked up more turnovers (17) than assists (12).
A non-playmaker and work in progress from outside, I'm not sure his half-court game is strong enough. Chances are, Bacon would be a lot higher on boards if he wasn't turning 21 years old before next season.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Grayson Allen (Duke, SG, Sophomore)
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If Grayson Allen's 16-point eruption during last year's title game looked a bit fluky, it shouldn't after the first month of his sophomore season. He's emerged as Duke's top option, having averaged 21.4 points and gone for at least 25 points on four separate occasions.
Though not overly long, I'm buying Allen's start as both a sign of more to come and legitimate NBA potential.
Allen has standard 6'5", 205-pound size for a 2-guard, though his athletic ability is surely above average. He plays with a bounce to his step off the dribble, and when given a lane or open floor, he's capable of exploding above the rim, which leads to easy buckets and trips to the line (seven free-throw attempts per game, 88.6 percent shooter).
In a full-time role, he's already managed to knock down more threes (20-of-44) than he did all last year. Allen has a clean stroke, range and plenty of confidence in his release.
Allen has also shown he can handle the ball a little bit, and though not a facilitator, his ability to beat defenders off the dribble has led to 3.2 assists per game.
As a pro, he doesn't project as the scorer he is at Duke, but I'm buying his shooting, athleticism, attacking ability and motor working in an energizer role. I'd grade him as a first-round talent.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Melo Trimble (Maryland, PG, Sophomore)
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Melo Trimble has emerged as one of college basketball's most dangerous offensive players. He recently hung 25 points on Connecticut after going for 23 in a win over North Carolina.
And so far, his floor game has been better—Trimble averages 6.7 assists per 40 minutes, up from 3.6 a year ago. He's looking like a more complete point guard, as opposed to just a scoring ball-handler.
But despite the progress he's apparently made and production he continues racking up, there is reason to be somewhat skeptical of Trimble's NBA potential.
Below-the-rim ball-handlers haven't fared particularly well lately, from Shabazz Napier and Tyler Ennis to Trey Burke and Shane Larkin. Trimble lacks explosiveness and length with just a 6'2" wingspan.
He doesn't quite project favorably on defense either.
For what it's worth, he struggled badly this summer against international competition in the Pan American Games. I'll buy Trimble as an NCAA stud, but as a pro, backup point guard or bench spark could be the more reasonable projection.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Patrick McCaw (UNLV, SG, Sophomore)
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Patrick McCaw continues to hide below the radar—he's averaging 15.8 points on 50.8 percent shooting while ranking third in the country in steals (3.3 per game).
And though he'll need to add some bulk, there is a lot to like about McCaw's game from an NBA perspective.
At 6'7" with long arms, he has impressive measurements and athleticism for a 2-guard. Quick feet and fast hands also bode well for his defensive outlook.
And after making 57 threes at a respectable 36.8 percent clip as a freshman, he's hitting 2.5 per game so far on 43.5 percent.
There is always demand for wings who can shoot and defend. The fact that McCaw can handle the ball and create for others (3.7 assists per game) highlights versatility and ultimately strengthens his NBA case.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Thomas Bryant (Indiana, PF, Freshman)
10 of 10
Thomas Bryant has created some early buzz at Indiana. With can't-miss physical tools (6'10", 245 pounds, 7'5½" wingspan), he's been a monster in the middle shooting 72.3 percent from the floor.
However, despite his super efficiency and 11.6 points per game, 44 of his 47 field goals made have come right at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com.
Bryant also lacks fluidity as a runner and leaper, while his 13.4 percent rebounding percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, remains below average for a player his size.
He's also showed poor awareness and lateral quickness on defense, particularly in pick-and-roll coverage.
Bryant certainly has NBA potential, but I'm not ready to buy it just yet. He'll need at least two years at Indiana to emerge as a first-round target.
Buy or Sell: Sell
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