Are You Buying It? Breaking Down NBA's Latest Trends, Surprises and Trainwrecks
If you stop to blink, you might miss the NBA's latest development.
The world of professional basketball features a constantly changing landscape of dominant teams and star players, one in which the weak links are almost always swapped out for stronger ones. But at the same time, there are still slow-moving shifts that can catch you by surprise if you don't follow the gradual progression of the trend.
We're interested in both here.
This time of year, new rumors are always surfacing. Previously beaten-down teams are rising to new heights. Other former powers are falling down in seemingly inexplicable fashion.
In other words, it's a typical December in the NBA.
Dwight Howard Is Unhappy Again?
Held back by his aging body and the role he plays for the Houston Rockets, Dwight Howard is averaging just 12.6 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks during the 2015-16 campaign. The 30-year-old's point production is the lowest it's been since his rookie season with the Orlando Magic, and it's not like the other major per-game marks stack up strongly against his career averages.
On top of that, the Houston Rockets have continued their apathetic ways, failing to exhibit much desire on the defensive end and consistently losing to opponents they would've steamrolled en route to the 2015 Western Conference Finals. At just 12-14, they've shown few indications they're capable of climbing toward the top of the standings in their half of the NBA.
The frustration, naturally, has led to rumors. Per SheridanHoops.com's Chris Sheridan, "Dwight Howard is extremely unhappy in Houston playing second fiddle to alpha dog James Harden."
ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins took things one step further by reporting on the widespread levels of malcontent in Houston, but it's Howard who has taken center stage. After all, he's the one with the history of malfeasance, first demanding his way out of Orlando and then brewing discontent with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Unsurprisingly, he's denying the reports, as shared by Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:
What else is he supposed to say? His reputation would be further sullied by a public demand for a trade, especially less than a calendar year removed from playing an important role in a deep playoff push.
But given Howard's history, it's tough to side with him.
Remember when he denied he wanted Orlando Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy fired right after reports claiming the opposite surfaced? For those who can't recall, Van Gundy was ultimately fired.
Now, not only have we seen him clash with a ball-dominant teammate before (see: Bryant, Kobe), but his contract situation with the Rockets also might make him a little bit testy. If he doesn't feel like the franchise is fully committed to building around him, it's only because the Rockets shouldn't be.
Houston currently has Clint Capela waiting in the wings, and the 21-year-old big man has been every bit as productive as his older counterpart:
And if that's not enough, the discrepancy between production on and off the court is actually larger for Capela than it's been for Howard in 2015-16:
None of this should make Howard feel secure, especially because he has an opt-out clause this summer and doesn't need to stick around Houston any longer than he wants. If he can secure a trade now, he'd be able to establish himself as a key player for a new franchise, no longer running the risk of losing important minutes to Capela before he hits the open market.
With Howard, we've learned the saying "where there's smoke, there's fire," often rings true. No matter how vehemently he denies the latest rumors, it's hard to brush them aside entirely.
Verdict: Based on history, we'd be foolish not to buy this.
The Fall from Grace of Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
Heading into their Wednesday night clash with the San Antonio Spurs, the Washington Wizards had lost three of their last four games—the lone exception coming via a three-point victory against the Dallas Mavericks. Making matters worse for a team that's fallen all the way to 10-13 on the season, Bradley Beal is expected to miss a few weeks with what feels like the millionth stress reaction of his young career.
But the Wizards aren't the only Eastern Conference playoff team from last season to plummet toward the bottom of the standings.
Even though the Milwaukee Bucks took advantage of an exhausted Golden State Warriors squad and ended the defending champions' undefeated run, they've been atrocious in 2015-16. Naturally, they followed that miraculous victory up with an embarrassing loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, pushing them down to 10-16 on the year.
Should the season suddenly draw to a close, only the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers would have more favorable lottery odds in the Eastern Conference. That's not the position either of these organizations expected to find themselves in after playing postseason basketball last year.
Unfortunately, the underlying numbers back the records up.
According to simple rating system (SRS), which looks solely at margin of victory and strength of schedule, both Washington and Milwaukee belong at the bottom of the pack. The former's score of minus-3.59 puts it at No. 23 in the Association, better than only three Eastern teams. The latter's minus-6.19 SRS places it ahead of just Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
My FATS model (based on historical projections and explained in full here) tells a similar story. The Wizards are playing at a 29.3-win pace, and their current tally of wins and losses puts them on track to finish with a 31-50 record. Meanwhile, the Bucks are performing like a 29.7-win squad, but their previous results point toward a 30-52 record.
There's still plenty of time for turnarounds, but where are the indications that they'll actually take place?
"Teams have figured out how to attack the Bucks defense. They are simply not taking anyone by surprise anymore. The amount of turnovers they force are down and ball-handlers are killing them by making simple passes to the corner," Jesus Gomez wrote for SB Nation in early December about a defense that has slipped significantly.
In 2014-15, Milwaukee posted a 102.2 defensive rating, placing it behind just the Warriors and San Antonio Spurs. But this year, the Bucks are allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions, which puts them ahead of only the New Orleans Pelicans and Lakers.
Even as that number trends in the right direction—and it should, given the youth of the key pieces—there's not enough offensive firepower or defensive rebounding to push this team back into contention for a top spot in the East.
On the flip side, there might be reason for a bit of optimism in the nation's capital, as Gary Neal recently told the Washington Post's Jerry Brewer:
"I don't think we're too far away at all. We've been dealing with a lot on our plate. We're not into excuses, but you have to state the facts: The injury bug has been a real problem. We've had different rotations and lineups, games without all our big guys, games without many of our shooters. If we have different personnel every game, of course, we're going to play like a different team from night to night.
We have to be consistent. We're not happy about the ups and downs. But we still feel like, when we're all finally together, collectively, we have a great chance.
"
It may already be too late for the Wizards to climb all the way back toward the top of the East, but they should be able to get back into playoff positioning as they regain their health and previous levels of chemistry.
John Wall has already been playing more effective basketball in recent weeks, and it's true this team has seen many key rotation pieces go down for various lengths of time during the campaign's first quarter. Perhaps it's a mistake to buy into the resilience of this veteran-laden squad, but it's easier to do so here than with the Bucks, whose youthful exuberance just won't be enough without serious changes.
Verdict: Buying the Bucks' fall but hesitantly selling the Wizards' plummet.
The Rise of the Charlotte Hornets
While two teams sink to the bottom, one has risen close to the top.
The Charlotte Hornets were supposed to be done after losing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who underwent shoulder surgery before the start of the season. Instead, they've forged a new offensive identity behind a vastly improved Kemba Walker and a motivated Nicolas Batum, surging up to the realm of the Eastern Conference standings typically occupied by legitimate contenders.
Not only is Walker averaging a career high in points per game (18), but he's also doing so while scorching nets like never before. Even though he'd knocked down more than 40 percent of his field-goal attempts just once before, he's hitting at a 45.2 percent clip. He's also blowing his previous best from beyond the arc (33.3 percent in 2013-14) out of the water by knocking down 39.6 percent of his deep tries.
The result? Drastic overall improvement on the offensive end.
Picking the right shots and ridding his jumper of some of the hitches that previously created inconsistencies have allowed his career trajectory to change for the better, especially because he's also fared better on the defensive end than ever before.
Take a look at his projected total points added, which indicate how many more points he's provided than an average player would over the course of a season (full methodology laid out in this article):
"The Hornets are deliberately using him off the ball as a spot-up threat, because they finally can," Bleacher Report's Dan Favale wrote while predicting that the diminutive floor general will find a home on this year's All-Star squad. "Defenders no longer have the luxury of cheating off him to provide help; Walker has gravitational pull on the perimeter now."
Meanwhile, Batum has been unleashed.
No longer is he serving as a complementary offensive player, as he did in Rip City alongside Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. He's allowed to handle the ball, and the results have been substantial. Averaging 17 points and 4.7 assists isn't particularly easy while lining up on the wings, but defenses have no idea what to do against a version of Batum that is consistently allowed to serve as a true distributing hub.
Led by those two should-be All-Stars, the Hornets have posted the league's No. 7 offensive rating in conjunction with the No. 7 defensive rating. They're one of only two teams that ranks that high on both ends of the floor, and the juggernaut that is the Spurs serve as the other member of the exclusive club.
According to SRS, the Hornets were the league's fourth-best team this year prior to their Wednesday night loss to the Magic, behind just the Warriors, Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. Per FATS, they're playing at a 49.9-win pace that will leave them earning the East's No. 3 seed.
It's time to view this up-and-coming Charlotte squad as a legitimate contender for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Verdict: We're buying all the Hornets stock we can get our hands on.
Ryan Anderson on the Move?
It's trade season, and that means the phones of general managers across the league are always on. In the case of the New Orleans Pelicans, Dell Demps probably has to keep a charger around because it seems his is ringing off the proverbial hook.
Per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
There are two ways to look at this rumor: from the rest of the league's perspective and from that of the struggling Pelicans.
As for the former, it's only natural that the NBA try to prey upon the Birds, who have dropped all the way into the Western Conference's basement, winners of only six of their first 24 games.
Ryan Anderson is a valuable piece, as no team ever seems capable of rostering too many stretch 4s. The power forward is scoring 18 points per game this season, and he's doing so while knocking down 44 percent of his shots from the field and 37.1 percent of his deep looks.
However, why would the Pelicans part with him?
Sure, it might be in the organization's best interest to pull the plug on the current campaign, giving up after it was dealt a crippling hand of injuries during the first quarter of the season. But Anderson simply isn't the right piece to move, especially because he's working on an expiring deal that would give the team some financial flexibility during the next crucial offseason.
It's not just that a stagnant offense is significantly better when he's on the court. It's that Anderson pairs up nicely with Anthony Davis, who has clearly established himself as the centerpiece of this rebuild.
The duo passes the eye test, as both can capably space out the court. Anderson is such a threatening presence from the perimeter that he grants the burgeoning superstar more room to work around the hoop—just as he once did while he and Dwight Howard shared a frontcourt for the Magic.
Stats back the theory up as well.
Though the Pelicans are still outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions when Anderson and Davis are both on the floor, that's significantly better than Anderson's overall on-court net rating of minus-7.2 (right in line with NOLA's overall net rating of minus-6.8). Per NBA.com's statistical databases, Kendrick Perkins, with whom Anderson has logged all of seven minutes, is the only big man who pairs up with the sharpshooting power forward to post a better net rating.
New Orleans is still working to figure out who fits best alongside Davis, and it knows Anderson is a solid option. Even if it commits to bottoming out and playing for the best possible draft pick, parting with such a player, one who just happens to be lofting up threes on an expiring contract, doesn't make sense.
Unless the Pelicans receive a godfather offer, Anderson should remain on the roster.
Verdict: Buying the interest of other teams but selling the Pelicans' desire to move him.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com or my own databases and are current heading into Dec. 16's games.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
