Forecasting Real Madrid's Equation in La Liga After Disastrous Month

It's been an extremely difficult month for Real Madrid in La Liga. 

After going 10 games unbeaten to start the season, Rafa Benitez's team have lost three of their last five league matches—the most recent of which came against Villarreal on Sunday—to fall five points behind joint-leaders Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in the table. 

With just 30 points from 15 games, Real Madrid, according to Marca, have put together their worst league start since 2008-09, a season that saw Los Blancos finish nine points behind champions Barcelona despite an incredibly strong mid-season run.

Consequently, Madrid's task in the Primera Division already looks to be very difficult, even with 23 games still to play. 

So what exactly is the equation facing Real Madrid? How many points are they going to need, and what margin for error exists from here?

Below, we've tried to forecast what will be necessary by examining previous seasons, evaluating the current trajectories of the contenders, looking at the remaining fixtures and factoring in the possible impact of the January transfer window.  

Recent Seasons

When examining the points tallies that have propelled teams to league titles in recent years, it's best to limit the focus to the last seven seasons from 2008-09. 

Prior to that, the dominance of Real Madrid and Barcelona over the rest of the league wasn't what it's become, rendering those seasons as unsuitable comparisons in this case.

The champions from the seven most recent campaigns are outlined here:  

Year	Champions	Points
2014-15	Barcelona	94
2013-14	Atletico Madrid	90
2012-13	Barcelona	100
2011-12	Real Madrid	100
2010-11	Barcelona	96
2009-10	Barcelona	99
2008-09	Barcelona	87

As illustrated above, after peaking in 2011-12 and 2012-13, the number of points required to win the league has come back somewhat, due to a strengthening of the division's middle class since 2013-14. In that historic season, Atletico lifted the title with 90 points; last term, Barcelona did so with 94. 

Interestingly, the Catalans' tally from last season was essentially the average that's been required since 2008-09, the mean in this period standing at 95.  

Keep that number in mind as we move through the following sections. 

2015-16 Season Projections on Current Pace

Back in 2011-12, Real Madrid and Barcelona lost all of five games between them in the entire season. But already in 2015-16, they've together recorded five losses with a combined 46 games still remaining. 

As such, we're currently witnessing a continuation of the recent trend in La Liga this season, with the league's "other" clubs now more capable of taking points from the heavyweights. Celta Vigo have demonstrated that thus far. So have Sevilla. Ditto for Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna. 

Based on current pace, here are the points tallies that the title contenders are on track to hit this season:

Team	Points	Points per Game	On Pace For
Barcelona	35	2.33	89
Atletico Madrid	35	2.33	89
Real Madrid	30	2.00	76

From that basic evidence, the 90-point mark might need to be hit by Real Madrid, which—based on their current tally of 30 points—would mean the capital outfit would have to take 60 points from the 69 still available. 

And yet the likelihood is that the requirement will be more than that. 

Fixture Comparisons

When the current season began, the popular belief was that Real Madrid were well placed to establish a lead over their rivals prior to Christmas. Unhindered by the transfer ban affecting Barcelona and facing a more gentle pre-Christmas fixture list, Madrid essentially had a chance to give themselves a buffer. 

But it hasn't worked out that way, and the equation for Madrid has become extremely difficult as a result. 

Angel Fernandez/Associated Press

Already five points ahead, Barcelona can look forward in the knowledge that the season's most difficult stretch is already behind them. Though we're just 15 games in, Luis Enrique's men have already been away to Madrid, Atletico, Valencia, Sevilla, Celta Vigo and Athletic Bilbao. 

For Barcelona, that's La Liga's six most difficult trips already done and dusted, meaning every stern test from now on will come at home at the Camp Nou. 

In comparison, Madrid still have to go to Valencia and Barcelona, while Atletico have nearly all of their tough away fixtures still to play. 

Consequently, it's a very realistic possibility that Barcelona will increase the pace of their points collection in the campaign's second half, meaning their end-of-season tally could well be higher than the 89 they're currently on pace for. 

Impact of January

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The expected impact of the approaching January transfer window also contributes to the growing sense that, as Madrid's task becomes increasingly harder, Barcelona's obstacles are reducing in number.

Already through the season's toughest stretch as outlined above, Barcelona will enjoy the boost of welcoming Arda Turan and Aleix Vidal into the team in January. Both men, of course, were signed in the summer but haven't been able to be registered yet because of the club's transfer ban. 

For Enrique, the pair will provide him with the vital depth that has been missing following the departures of Xavi and Pedro, as well as the long-term injury to Rafinha. Without those men, Enrique has had only the bare bones of a squad at his disposal, hindering any desire to rotate and forcing a very heavy workload upon his first-choice XI. 

As of January, though, Turan and Vidal will alleviate that situation, reducing the likelihood of Barcelona's squad burning out in the season's second half. 

Back in the capital, meanwhile, Atletico will see midfielder Matias Kranevitter join them from Argentinian outfit River Plate, softening the blow of Tiago's recent leg break and ensuring adequate depth will be available in the middle of the pitch. 

Across town at the Bernabeu, however, it's uncertain how the winter transfer window will unfold. 

Real Madrid's Forecasted Equation

Right, equation time. What will Real Madrid need to do from here? Or, more specifically, what sort of target are Barcelona or Atletico likely to set them?

For starters, though it's always dangerous to write off Diego Simeone's men, Atletico face a significantly harder stretch in the new year, when they'll go away to Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Celta Vigo. At this stage, therefore, Barcelona look more likely to be the team to beat.

As established earlier, the Catalans are currently on pace for 89 points, but here we're forecasting their end-of-season tally to be fractionally higher than that.

Indeed, given that Barcelona face the gentlest remaining fixture list of the three title contenders and will also have their position boosted by the inclusions of Turan and Vidal in January, it's not unreasonable to project the club's points tally finishing in the 91-94 range—consistent with the club's seven-season average from 2008-09 to 2014-15. 

If that were to unfold, it would leave Real Madrid—who are also massively behind in the head-to-head with Barcelona following the season's first Clasico—needing to take between 62-65 points from the 69 still available. 

Thus, for Real Madrid to win the league title from this point, they'll either need to be close to flawless or capable of capitalising upon a major, unexpected slip from Barcelona.