Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

Indianapolis absolutely owns the rivalry with Houston, winning 23 of 27 meetings all-time, including the last six, and going 5-0-1 against the spread. But that recent run was done with Andrew Luck at quarterback. Can the Colts continue their dominance over the Texans without him when they meet on Sunday?

Point spread: This game was off the board early in the week at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.8-19.3 Texans

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston had won four games in a row, playing itself into playoff contention, but it has lost its last two, most recently a 27-6 reverse to New England Sunday night. The Texans only trailed the Patriots 10-6 late into the second quarter, but they faded from there, coming up empty ATS as five-point home 'dogs.

Two weeks ago, Houston lost a tough game at Buffalo, 30-21, but just before that, the team won four straight, as the defense allowed a total of just 35 points. It also outgained five foes in a row during that span.

As of early this week, it looked like T.J. Yates would get the call at quarterback for the Texans in place of the injured Brian Hoyer on Sunday. Yates is a perfect 1-0 this year as a starter; he threw for 229 yards, connected twice with DeAndre Hopkins for touchdowns and, most importantly, didn't throw a pick in a 24-17 Houston victory over the Jets four weeks ago.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy had won three in a row until dropping its last two, including a 51-16 drubbing at Jacksonville last week. But that game was a little closer than the final score might indicate. The Colts actually led at halftime 13-9, but they gave up an 80-yard Jags touchdown pass one minute into the second half and a score on a punt return two minutes later. Indy then got to within 23-16 with a field goal, but things got out of hand from there.

Two weeks ago, the Colts did the same thing, leading Pittsburgh late in the second quarter, before fading in the second half in a 45-10 loss. Just prior to that, they won and covered three games in a row. If they could just start putting two halves together Indy might start winning games again.

Smart pick

Both teams, once again, are expected to start backup quarterbacks this week, so that factor washes out. Ultimately, Houston has outgained five of its last six opponents, while Indianapolis has been outgained in nine of its last 10 games. So despite the recent run in this rivalry, the smart money here takes the Texans.

Betting trends

The Texans are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Colts.

The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive losses.

The Colts are 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against their division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.