Titans vs. Patriots: Full New England Game Preview

After a rare losing streak, the New England Patriots got their act together last week in a reassuring three-touchdown win over the Houston Texans. Now, the Pats will wrap up their home schedule with another AFC South opponent, the cellar-dwelling Tennessee Titans.

The Titans may have a foundational piece in rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, but the maiden voyage has been rough for the former Heisman Trophy winner. Mariota has dealt with injuries and inconsistencies apart from a few signature performances. Tennessee appeared totally listless last Sunday in a snooze-worthy 30-8 loss against the New York Jets.

On paper, this is as lopsided of a matchup as the Patriots have enjoyed all season. The Titans have a couple of stellar matchup problems in Mariota and defensive tackle Jurrell Casey but are otherwise at a massive talent disadvantage. Even with their battered personnel, the Pats hold the checkmark for almost every conceivable matchup in this game.

But with home-field advantage on the line if the Patriots win out, there is no margin for error. Read on for full analysis of how New England can move one step closer to ensuring the AFC postseason goes through Gillette Stadium.

Week 14 Results and Recap

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A prime-time road game is a difficult spot for any team, let alone an injury-riddled one coming off two consecutive losses. However, after taking control of the second half in their 27-6 win over the Houston Texans, the New England Patriots restored some measure of order. Now at 11-2, the Pats are back in the driver's seat for home-field advantage following losses by the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals.

The defense delivered its best performance in weeks, generating six sacks and knocking quarterback Brian Hoyer out of the game. New England allowed just seven first downs the entire game, its lowest total conceded since 2006. Overall, the Texans averaged a meager 3.6 yards per play, the lowest figure the Pats have conceded the entire season.

Tom Brady and Co. were also much more efficient offensively with the return of Rob Gronkowski, who caught all four of his targets for 87 yards and a touchdown in his return to the lineup. Apart from a lull in the third quarter, the Pats exhibited much more drive-to-drive consistency than they have since Gronk and Julian Edelman both went down in the past month.

Alas, it wouldn't be a Pats victory without another string of injuries. Devin McCourty, LeGarrette Blount, Jonathan Freeny and Dominique Easley all left the game and did not return with injuries of varying severity. We'll have more updates on New England's biggest injuries shortly.

News and Notes

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Blount and Easley Hit Injured Reserve

New England has mostly avoided injuries of the season-ending variety, but that changed against Houston when a pair of starters went down for the year. With LeGarrette Blount (hip) and Dominique Easley (quad) ending up on injured reserve this week, the Pats lost two reliable role players who fulfilled important niche roles all season.

The Blount injury hits the Pats at an already thin position, especially given that Dion Lewis is also on IR. Like James White before him, Brandon Bolden might be asked to bear a far greater workload than he has during his career. Earlier this week, ESPN.com's Mike Reiss outlined the lack of offensive action Bolden has received since his rookie season in 2012:

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In his rookie season, Bolden had a career-high 137 yards on 16 carries in a 52-28 win at Buffalo when the Patriots favored a power running approach. He has had only one other game with as many as 16 carries, and it came in Sunday night's win over the Texans after Blount was injured. So he has only 174 career carries, a limited offensive workload coming as a result of playing behind power backs Stevan Ridley, Blount and Jonas Gray.

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Easley's loss at least comes at one of the deepest positions on the roster. Rookie Geneo Grissom played some snaps early in the year as an interior rusher but has not played on defense since Week 9. More likely, the Pats will use Chandler Jones more as an interior rusher, as they have at times with lighter pass-rushing packages involving Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich on the edges.

Steven Jackson Gets Workout, Three Signed

The Pats had a busy transaction period Wednesday, shuffling the bottom of their roster. According to WEEI's Ryan Hannable, New England inked three veterans—wide receiver Leonard Hankerson, defensive tackle Ishmaa'ily Kitchen and tackle LaAdrian Waddle while also releasing wide receiver Damaris Johnson and running back Trey Williams. Hankerson and Waddle are of particular short-term interest, given that both have been starters in Atlanta and Detroit, respectively, and add depth to thin positions.

However, the most headline-grabbing news piece revolved around a player the Patriots have yet to sign. Steven Jackson, the 11-year vet who ranks 18th on the all-time rushing list, worked out in Foxborough this week, according to ESPN's Ed Werder, who also mentioned Jackson's ties to Josh McDaniels:

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Source says #Patriots meeting today with RB Steven Jackson based on mutual interest. Pats need a RB and Jackson played for OC Josh McDaniels

— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) December 16, 2015"

Jackson has a ton of tread on his tires and was thoroughly unimpressive in rushing for 3.7 yards per attempt last year for the Falcons. However, the 32-year-old may be reasonably fresh having sat out all of 2015 so far and brings the same physical between-the-tackles running style as Blount. At the very least, Jackson is a name to keep on the radar until the postseason.

Sheard a Key Player Down the Stretch

New England has retained a surprisingly stout defense the whole season on the strength of young stars like Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and Malcolm Butler performing up to and beyond expectations. However, in a column about "hinge players" who represent underrated keys in the postseason, Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier highlighted Jabaal Sheard as a key factor for the Patriots' repeat hopes:

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The Sunday night game was closer than the 27-6 score. The Patriots had trouble sustaining drives and gave up some big passing plays. This is how it's going to be for them from now on when they face better opponents, even with Gronkowski back.

Luckily for New England, no team is as good at grabbing a guy off a lousy roster and polishing him into a vital cog in the big machine as the Patriots. They are back in the driver's seat for home-field advantage, thanks to their defense.

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With 6.0 sacks in 10 games, Sheard has given the Pats the pass-rushing depth they've lacked for most of the past decade. Losing Easley on the interior is a tough blow to absorb, but Sheard's presence in sub-packages gives the Patriots more wiggle room than they have enjoyed on the front seven in a long time.

Latest Injury News

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Devin McCourty

As tough as the Blount and Easley injuries are to absorb, the Patriots can feel fortunate they escaped a similar fate with Devin McCourty. According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, McCourty suffered a sprained ankle against Houston, but it's an injury that should not keep him out of the postseason:

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#Patriots S Devin McCourty suffered a sprained ankle, source said. X-Rays were negative. It's nothing that'll cause him to miss the playoffs

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 14, 2015"

A further report from ESPN's Adam Caplan specified it as a high ankle sprain, which will almost assuredly cause him to miss multiple weeks and perhaps the rest of the regular season. Duron Harmon has been solid situationally as a deep center fielder, but McCourty's absence will provide New England its first extended look at what life will be like without the rock-solid All-Pro as a security blanket on the back end.

Julian Edelman

A week after Rob Gronkowski's return to the lineup, it appears the Patriots are also getting closer to having Tom Brady's second-favorite target join him back in the lineup. Edelman has been listed as a limited participant this week, and beat writers such as the Boston Globe's Jim McBride have passed along encouraging reports on Edelman's form in practice:

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#Patriots receiver Julian Edelman looked crisp and quick during media portion of practice today.

— Jim McBride (@globejimmcbride) December 16, 2015"

Given the rustiness Dez Bryant has shown in returning from the same injury, there is no guarantee Edelman resembles his typical slippery self until he actually sees game action. Edelman is five weeks removed from the injury, which came with an initial timetable of six to eight weeks. Sunday likely won't see Edelman's return, but anything from Week 16 on looks like fair game.

Dont'a Hightower

The starting linebacker was a limited participant all through last week but never even made the plane ride to Houston. Receiving the same limited designation again this week, Hightower is a better bet to play two weeks removed from a knee sprain he suffered against Denver.

Hightower and Jamie Collins have not shared the field since Week 8 against Miami. The Pats have spackled things together with contributions from Jonathan Freeny and Jerod Mayo during that stretch, but restoring that versatile duo in the middle of the defense gives Matt Patricia and Bill Belichick so much more freedom and flexibility in constructing defensive game plans.

Derrick Morgan

The Titans have lost numerous starters, including Jason McCourty, Justin Hunter and Brian Schwenke, to injured reserve this season. Outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, though he has not officially been placed on IR, has now joined those players on the sidelines:

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Mularkey said the season is over for Derrick Morgan. He's having surgery today. That's a huge loss. Orakpo is sackless without him.

— Cory Curtis (@CoryCurtis2) December 14, 2015"

Morgan has been an underrated edge defender since Tennessee implemented a one-gapping 3-4 scheme under Ray Horton two seasons ago. Morgan set career highs in sacks (6.5) and tackles (43) last season and had compiled 4.5 takedowns in 10 games this year. Without his presence on the edge, New England's up-and-down tackles have one less proven veteran to worry about.

Key Matchups

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Patrick Chung vs. Delanie Walker

Patriots fans probably aren't particularly familiar with Marcus Mariota's supporting cast, but the tight end Walker is an underrated weapon who presents matchup issues for every defense. Walker leads the team by a wide margin in targets (99), receptions (74), receiving yards (871) and receiving touchdowns (four). That receptions total is tops among all tight ends this year, and only Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen and Gary Barnidge have accumulated more yards.

The strong safety Chung has been defending tight ends most of the season, and McCourty's injury shouldn't really affect his particular role. Texans tight end Ryan Griffin had several opportunities for big plays downfield last week, though he caught only one of his six targets.

The Titans will surely see the near-misses on film and make Walker a central part of their offensive game plan. Given Tennessee's dearth of perimeter targets, we might expect Bill Belichick to bracket Walker over the middle of the field with two safeties or a linebacker dropping into coverage. Regardless, the tight end is the straw that stirs Tennessee's drink, so he should be the primary focus for the defense.

Shaq Mason and Bryan Stork vs. Jurrell Casey

The Titans defense delivered the biggest blooper from Week 13, totally failing to cover Brandon Marshall on a 69-yard touchdown. Casey was the only player with enough awareness to recognize the gaffe and valiantly attempted to chase down Marshall, to no avail. The play was emblematic of how the past few years have unfolded for Tennessee's defense and Casey, who has often been the lone shining diamond in the rough.

Casey has again been excellent as a base 3-4 defensive end and 3-technique in sub-packages, garnering six sacks and a team-high 45 total pressures, per Pro Football Focus' charting. The fifth-year pro typically lines up on the weak side, which means he will be the primary responsibility of the left guard Mason and center Stork.

The Pats did not use an offensive line rotation for the first time all season last week, only subbing Stork out when he experienced equipment issues. Thus, the two young interior linemen will likely see heavy doses of Casey the entire afternoon. Tennessee does not offer much resistance with its secondary personnel, so if New England can limit Casey (as well as top edge-rusher Brian Orakpo), Tom Brady should be able to pick apart the Titans defensive backs.

Chandler Jones vs. Taylor Lewan

Pitting a pair of former first-rounders, this is arguably the best individual matchup of the day. Lewan has settled in nicely in his first season as a full-time left tackle. PFF ranks him ninth among offensive tackles in pass-blocking efficiency, as Lewan has conceded just 20 total pressures despite playing in front of a rookie quarterback with a tendency to extend plays.

In New England's sackfest against the Texans, Chandler Jones was one of the few front-seven defenders to get shut out. Granted, Jones faced the most stable beacon of Houston's offensive line in Duane Brown. Nonetheless, the sack shutout marked Jones' fourth consecutive game without a takedown, as he has been stuck on 10.5 sacks since November 16.

The Patriots will happily take the bottom line if Jones' presence frees up Rob Ninkovich, Jabaal Sheard and Dominique Easley for juicy one-on-one rushing opportunities. Still, if only for his confidence, it would be nice to see Jones snap that drought against quality competition.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: James White

Despite their flaws in the secondary, the Titans have actually done an excellent job of containing running backs this season. Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, Tennessee is the league's best defense at defending opposing running backs in the passing game. The Titans have allowed an average of just 30.5 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, the second-best figure in the league behind only Kansas City.

Given how crucial White has become to the offense, it is imperative he remains a consistent part of the passing attack. He has accumulated 169 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns the past two games, emerging as a quietly integral part of the offense in place of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.

Tennessee middle linebackers Avery Williamson and Wesley Woodyard are mobile movers in space, but neither should be able to stifle White in theory. With Edelman out and Gronk still working his way back to full speed, watch to see if White can remain involved in the passing game against Tennessee's defense.

Titans X-Factor of the Week: Dorial Green-Beckham

The rookie second-rounder was considered a raw product coming into the league, having sat out the 2014 collegiate season.  DGB got off to a predictably slow start, accumulating only seven catches in his first seven games, but he has since come on for 17 catches, 311 yards and a touchdown since Week 9. Though he is not the primary target in Tennessee's offense, the 6'5", 237-pound rookie is the biggest matchup problem for every defense.

It's not hard to figure out Green-Beckham's route tree, as he will mostly run fade routes and the occasional deep post. Still, with 17.3 yards per catch, that simplicity has still translated to solid efficacy. Among receivers with at least 20 catches, that YPC figure ranks eighth in the league, right on par with the likes of Ted Ginn Jr. and Martavis Bryant.

The Patriots probably do not view Green-Beckham as a serious enough threat to warrant extra attention on every down, but he presents an interesting challenge given McCourty's likely absence. The Pats generally have the comfort of McCourty as a safety blanket on the back end, but without him Sunday, Duron Harmon will bear the burden of responsibility of preventing Green-Beckham and Tennessee's other receivers from breaking free.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 17

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The Patriots may be in position to earn a much-needed bye before the postseason, but that will require a strong push over the final three weeks. Earning a week off starts with taking care of business Sunday against an inferior opponent, albeit one with a potentially explosive, high-variance quarterback.

Mariota will present a unique game-planning challenge for Belichick, and the rookie will likely confound at various points of the game with his gifted natural tool kit. And even though the Patriots were much sounder last week against Houston, avoiding the catastrophic mistakes that plagued them against Philadelphia and Denver, New England is not in position to take any opponent for granted.

Still, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Titans pull off the upset at Gillette. Mariota has shredded mediocre opponents such as Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and New Orleans but has generally struggled when exposed to higher levels of competition. While that is as much of an indictment of his supporting cast as anything, the rookie is far too callow to carry the Titans on his own at the moment.

Apart from a muffed punt, the Pats did a better job at cutting out big negative plays last Sunday. If they can further trim the mistakes in their regular-season home finale, the Patriots should move a step closer to clinching the top seed.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 17