Why Bayern Munich Will Win 2 Trophies in the 2015/16 Season

As their last game of 2015 approaches this Saturday, Bayern Munich look to be one of world football’s strongest clubs.

In a season that has seen other giants like Chelsea and Real Madrid struggle at times, the Bavarians have stood out for their almost flawless consistency. But will Germany’s record champions win the treble for a second time in four seasons?

Domestically, there is little competition for Bayern. Their lead in the Bundesliga is commanding, with only Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Monchengladbach having been able to stand in their way thus far: Die Adler held out for a scoreless draw in October, while Die Fohlen shocked Pep Guardiola and Co. with a 3-1 win earlier in December.

Otherwise, it’s been smooth sailing for Bayern. Although Borussia Dortmund remain “just” five points behind, Bayern hammered the runners-up 5-1 in October and could well go the rest of the season without dropping as many points as the current gap between first and second.

As for all other contenders, they are so far behind it’s not even worth discussing their chances at the title. Hertha have been huge overachievers, while the likes of Gladbach, Wolfsburg and Schalke aren’t far from having their points tallies doubled by the Bavarians.

More interesting than the title race itself will be Bayern’s race against their own records. In 2012/13, they set a league record with 91 points, winning the league by 25.

It will be hard to beat the previous margin, especially considering the gap between first and second at present, but the 91-point barrier isn’t unattainable. Bayern have dropped just five points thus far, and they will beat their previous record if they win their last game of 2015 and perform equally well in the second half of the campaign.

Regardless of margin, Bayern should quite comfortably win the Bundesliga at season’s end.

ODD ANDERSEN/Getty Images

The DFB-Pokal is another issue—a tougher call given that it is a series of single-elimination matches that could be played at home or away.

It is a competition that gave Bayern problems last season, with Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund pushing them to penalties. The Bavarians were able to overcome Die Werkself in the quarterfinals, but BVB were the better side in their shootout and advanced to the final.

This season, Bayern have already had to face top competition in the Pokal in the form of Wolfsburg, whom they faced at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in October. Despite playing the cup holders away from home, Bayern played like champions and took a 3-0 lead within 34 minutes. Andre Schurrle’s late consolation goal was the only reply the hosts had as they crashed out of the cup.

That win was huge for a Bayern side that has often been known to struggle in tough away matches, and it crossed one of the tournament’s top contenders off the list of potential opponents.

There remain some tough sides in the Pokal, but Bayern are head-to-head favorites against any domestic opposition. They’ve earned it and more likely than not will make up for last season’s disappointment and win both of Germany’s domestic competitions.

The UEFA Champions League is a whole different monster, and it is in this competition that Bayern may find some greater difficulty.

It’s well known that Guardiola and Co. have mastered the art of hammering German opposition on a regular basis. In the Bundesliga, the stakes in any game are generally low; just three points out of a possible 102 for the season, and some sides hardly bother to turn out. Some are just miles behind Bayern in terms of individual class.

In the Champions League, opponents often have nothing to lose and everything to win. Sides unfavored will truly give everything they have to shock their opponents.

The burden of expectation can be a problem for a club like Bayern who are expected to win, and an entire lack of expectation on underdog clubs can make them into a much greater challenge.

Porto are a classic example, having surprised Bayern with a 3-1 win at the Estadio do Dragao in their first-leg quarterfinal fixture last spring. Bayern won the return leg 6-1, but such a deficit halfway through the round can be very difficult to overcome.

More likely than not, though, it will be a bigger team, if any, that knocks Bayern out of the Champions League. Head-to-head, the Bavarians will be favored against almost any team. But against Barcelona, the holders who blitzed the Bavarians to reach the final last spring, Guardiola’s men will be underdogs.

Although Bayern have an outstanding attack, Barca have the world’s best front three in Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez. Even two of the aforementioned trio can make a devastating combination, and it’s unclear how Bayern can expect to manage against them.

The Bavarians have two world-class defenders in Jerome Boateng and David Alaba. However, Philipp Lahm has lost a yard or so of pace that could be costly in a head-to-head with Neymar, and the other center back position is a big question mark.

Holger Badstuber, Mehdi Benatia and Javi Martinez haveoften been injured, and the odds of having even one of the aforementioned in peak form and at peak fitness at any given point are questionable.

It’s possible for Alaba to be moved to a central position, but that would mean Rafinha at left-back, and the Brazilian leaves plenty to be desired in terms of his defending abilities against elite forwards.

In midfield, 34-year-old Xabi Alonso is a defensive liability for Bayern, and Arturo Vidal still has yet to show himself at the level that made him a superstar at Juventus.

Thiago is magnificent when fit, but he has spent more time on the sidelines than on the pitch during his career in Munich.

Similarly, Arjen Robben has become rather injury-prone over the last year or so and, with his 32nd birthday coming in January, won’t get any less susceptible to muscular or joint problems.

Playing without a couple of big names can be devastating for Bayern, and Gladbach's stunning win showed just how reliant the German giants are on players like Robben and Costa. Given the club's injury history, it's far from guaranteed that they will be at or even near full strength come April and May.

"

Most Champions League goals+assists since 12/13: Ronaldo (59) Messi (36) Lewandowski (33) Muller (33) Benzema (29) pic.twitter.com/qLdYIkiCVh

— Scores & Video (@ScoresVideo) December 8, 2015"

Bayern do, of course, have many things going in their favor. If Messi-Suarez-Neymar make up the deadliest trio in world football, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller are perhaps the best duo. And Douglas Costa could make the leap to prove himself as being even in the tier of Messi, Neymar and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Bayern have the world’s best goalkeeper, left-back and perhaps center back, and when on song, their attack is devastating. Truth be told, they are one of the few teams that actually can, with reasonable predictability, win the Champions League.

At the same time, the Germans will need to be at their very best in every way to beat Barca should they meet, especially given their poor record away from home in the Champions League.

Bayern know full well that one bad game against elite opposition can be enough to throw them out of Europe’s most prestigious club tournament; that’s exactly what happened last spring as they fell to Barca, and Arsenal earlier this season showed that Bayern still are unreliable away from home in big European fixtures.

Guardiola will also need to show that he’s evolved tactically in a way to suit Champions League knockout ties, an area in which he left much to be desired in his first two seasons at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern could well win the treble this spring; they have all the tools to do so. And as Chelsea proved in 2012 in beating the two best teams in Europe (Bayern and Barcelona), anything can happen.

But the odds of Guardiola's men not winning the Champions League are better than the opposite. One making a bet would be wiser to put money on Bayern winning two titles, not three.

@Mr_Bundesliga