Outback Bowl Betting: Northwestern vs. Tennessee Odds, Analysis and Pick

Northwestern finished its regular season with a five-game winning streak, going 4-1 against the spread; Tennessee also finished with five wins in a row to go along with five covers over its last seven games. The Wildcats battle the Volunteers in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day in Tampa, Florida.

Outback Bowl point spread: Volunteers opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.0-23.0 Volunteers

Why the Wildcats can cover the spread

Northwestern opened this season 5-0, with a stunner of an upset over Stanford, before losing back-to-back games to Michigan and Iowa. The Wildcats then dusted themselves off and won their last five in a row, taking games at Nebraska and at Wisconsin, finishing with a 24-14 rivalry victory over Illinois.

The Wildcats outgained and outrushed the Illini, the fourth game in a row they pulled that trick.

On the season, Northwestern is only averaging 333 yards per game but 193 on the ground. And with help from a top-15 defense, the Wildcats are outrushing opponents by 75 yards per game.

Northwestern is just 1-4 SU in bowls under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, but 3-1-1 ATS, because they lost a couple of heartbreakers in overtime but covered as dogs. Three years ago, though, the Wildcats picked up their first postseason victory since the 1948 Rose Bowl, beating Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl 34-20.

Why the Volunteers can cover the spread

The Vols started this season 3-4, with those four losses coming against Oklahoma (in overtime), at Florida, against Arkansas and at Alabama, by a total of 17 points. Tennessee then, like its bowl opponent, won its last five games in a row, finishing with a 53-28 romp over rival Vanderbilt.

UT only led the Commodores early in the second quarter 17-14, then scored 36 unanswered points, on its way to covering as an 18-point favorite. Tennessee has now outgained eight of its last 10 opponents and outrushed nine of its last 10 foes.

The Vols are playing in their second bowl under head coach Butch Jones; last season they bombed another Big Ten team, Iowa, in the TaxSlayer Bowl 45-28, easily covering as field-goal favorites.

Smart pick

Northwestern upset Stanford, but that might have been an aberration; the Wildcats looked terrible against their two other toughest opponents, the Wolverines and Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, Tennessee led two different College Football Playoff qualifiers, the Sooners and Crimson Tide, late in the fourth quarter, before succumbing. The smart money here sides with the Vols.

Betting trends

Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.

Northwestern is 1-4 SU in its last five games in January.

Northwestern is 1-9 SU in its last 10 bowl games.

The underdog has covered in the last four Outback Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.