Rose Bowl Betting: Iowa vs. Stanford Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Pac-12 owns the recent Rose Bowl rivalry with the Big Ten, winning seven of the last nine matchups outright and going 6-2-1 against the spread. The Stanford Cardinal lost this game two years ago to Michigan State, but they get a chance at redemption when they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day in Pasadena, California.

Rose Bowl point spread: Cardinal opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.4-32.8 Hawkeyes

Why the Hawkeyes can cover the spread

Iowa began this season almost as an afterthought in the Big Ten, but this program can be dangerous when underestimated and proved it again this season, sweeping the table on its way to the West Division title. The Hawkeyes picked up key conference road victories at Wisconsin and at Northwestern, then completed a perfect regular season with a victory at Nebraska. The dream came to an end, though, in a tough 16-13 loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship.

Iowa scored on a long C.J. Beathard-to-Tevaun Smith strike to take a 13-9 lead on the Spartans early in the fourth quarter, but allowed Michigan State to grind out a 22-play scoring drive that left just 20 seconds on the clock.

The Hawkeyes are 6-6 in bowls under head coach Kirk Ferentz, pulling off a couple of upsets along the way. Iowa knocked off Georgia Tech as a six-point dog in the Orange Bowl back in 2009, and nipped Missouri in the Insight Bowl the following season as a three-point dog.

Why the Cardinal can cover the spread

Stanford opened this season with that stunning loss at Northwestern, but then won eight games in a row. The Cardinal's chances of making the College Football Playoff took a fatal hit in a 38-36 loss at home to Oregon. However, they then beat Cal in the Big Game, outlasted Notre Dame while ending the Irish's CFP hopes, and won their third Pac-12 championship in the last four seasons, pulling away to defeat the USC Trojans 41-22.

Stanford is 9-4 ATS this season, and 2-1 ATS when favored by a touchdown or less. It's also 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS in four bowls under head coach David Shaw. Last season the Cardinal beat Maryland in the Foster Farms Bowl 45-21, covering at 14 points.

Smart pick

Stanford has Christian McCaffrey, who is capable of taking it to the house any time he touches the ball. Iowa, on the other hand, isn't sure if leading rusher Jordan Canzeri, who is dealing with an ankle injury, will play in the Rose Bowl. Additionally, the Cardinal played a top-15 schedule this season, while Iowa, let's just say, did not. The smart money here sides with Stanford.

Betting trends

Iowa is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against the Pac-12.

The total has gone under in six of Stanford's last eight games against the Big Ten.

Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Iowa is 5-2 ATS in its last seven bowl games.

The favorite is 6-2 SU in the last eight Rose Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.