Heisman Watch 2015: Predictions in Race for College Football's Most Prestigious
The 2015 Heisman finalists were announced on Monday, with Clemson's Deshaun Watson, Alabama's Derrick Henry and Stanford's Christian McCaffrey earning invitations to the ceremony.
According to Oddshark.com, Henry is the overwhelming favorite, with minus-1200 odds, compared to plus-600 for McCaffrey and plus-2200 for Watson.
While the odds provide a clear projected order of finish, below is a breakdown of why each candidate is likely to finish in each spot based on their performances and other circumstances that may simply be out of their control.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Saturday, Dec. 12 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | Derrick Henry (-1200) |
Projected Order of Finish
1. Derrick Henry
It wasn't until early November when Henry emerged as a strong Heisman candidate. But after rushing for more than 200 yards against LSU and delivering a knockout blow to early-favorite Leonard Fournette (with some help from his defense, of course), Henry has been cruising toward a trip to the Heisman ceremony.
In his final six SEC games, Henry rushed for 1,253 yards—a truly dominant stretch that has captured the attention of Heisman voters across the country.
As ESPN's Ryan McGee suggests, Saturday's Heisman ceremony doesn't provide much suspense:
"We interrupt this Derrick Henry Heisman engraving to bring you Deshaun Watson and Christian McCaffrey...
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) December 6, 2015"
The only question remaining for Henry is the size of his margin of victory.
2. Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey made a phenomenal final push for the Heisman in the Pac-12 title game—arguably one of the most impressive season-ending performances we've seen from a candidate in recent years.
But did anyone see it happen?
| SEC | Alabama vs. Florida | CBS | 4 p.m. | 8.3 |
| Big Ten | Michigan State vs. Iowa | FOX | 8 p.m. | 5.9 |
| ACC | Clemson vs. North Carolina | ABC | 8 p.m. | 4.6 |
| Big 12 | Baylor vs. Texas | ESPN | 12 p.m. | 2.8 |
| Pac-12 | Stanford vs. USC | ESPN | 8 p.m. | 2.0 |
McCaffrey had the misfortune of playing in the same timeslot as the Big Ten and ACC Championship Games, both of which had a more direct impact on the College Football Playoff.
As a result, fewer people tuned in to ESPN to watch the Pac-12 title game than had watched Texas upset Baylor earlier in the afternoon.
It would be nice if we could assume the Heisman voters were taking their job seriously and tuned in to catch a glimpse of McCaffrey, but that's giving the voters far too much credit.
With nearly 1,000 voters scattered across the country, they come from a wide range of backgrounds and, unfortunately, interest in the sport. In 2014, 35 voters didn't even turn in their ballot.
McCaffrey does have some hope, however, as many of the more educated voters seem to have swung their votes in McCaffrey's favor.
ESPN's experts' poll, featuring 10 of their college football analysts, named McCaffrey their winner this week.
It's worth noting, however, that unlike the overwhelming majority of the actual Heisman voters, ESPN's panel consists of well-respected national writers who are paid to follow every conference. As a result, they have a knowledge of a far greater and more widespread group of players than the average beat writer who casts his or her Heisman vote for their favorite local candidate or hyped-up national contender.
3. Deshaun Watson
Watson had a remarkable season, leading Clemson to an undefeated record, but he has the misfortune of playing in the ACC, which is traditionally a disadvantage in the Heisman voting.
The Heisman voters are split up evenly across six regions, which theoretically limits the amount that local biases can impact the race.
However, college football teams are not spread evenly across the country.
As a result, the Big Ten and SEC—two conferences which tend to receive more national attention than the ACC—encroach on the ACC's territory in the Heisman regions.
Regions containing a high percentage of one conference—the South region with the SEC or the Far West region and the Pac-12, for example—historically support their local candidate. But the ACC doesn't have a region capable of giving Watson its undivided attention and support.
The most recent ACC contender was Florida State's Jameis Winston, who won the award in 2013. Despite the victory, the voting breakdown shows the lack of local ACC support.
The most ACC-heavy region in the Heisman voting is the Mid-Atlantic, which produced 336 voting points for Winston in 2013, just 15 percent of his total and, amazingly, his lowest point total from any region.
The 2014 Heisman voting provided a great example of what local support does for candidates in other regions.
Last year, Marcus Mariota received 435 points—his most from any region—from the Far West, which is almost exclusively Pac-12 country. The Southwest, also primarily controlled by the Pac-12, provided Mariota with 434 points.
Due to these trends, it would come as a shock if Watson did not finish third in this year's voting.
Follow Ryan McCrystal on Twitter for more NFL and college football analysis.
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