At What Point Would Chelsea Cut Jose Mourinho Loose?
Chelsea, enduring a much-maligned Premier League campaign, have found some semblance of solace in the UEFA Champions League.
Qualifying first from an admittedly weak group—consisting of Dynamo Kiev, FC Porto and Maccabi Tel Aviv—the defending English champions should receive a favorable draw in the knockout stages (though Paris Saint-Germain was their reward last season), and could conceivably find themselves in March's quarter-final round.
Ever increasingly, manager Jose Mourinho's best chance of retaining his club's Champions League position is to win the competition.
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Eight losses in the Premier League have dragged the west Londoners into the depths of near-relegation, and while his squad boasts unquestioned world-class talent, Mourinho has been left scratching his head at befuddling (and unacceptable) results.
Each time the Blues seem to have turned the corner, a shock scoreline kills any momentum they have gained. This teeter-totter existence creates a hurricane of trouble for the Portuguese's job security. Already this season three EPL managers (Tim Sherwood, Brendan Rodgers and now Garry Monk—according to BBC Sport, Monk and Swansea parted company on Wednesday) have been sacked. However, considering position and pre-season expectations, Mourinho would seem primed for removal but has kept his position.
Club owner Roman Abramovich is often seen as a tenacious dictator, that any poor run of results is reason enough to swap managers, but this is an overblown reputation. It cannot be denied the Russian has shown a lightning-quick trigger finger in previous situations, but in each instance of managerial upheaval at Stamford Bridge (except for one), the team has responded and excelled.
Whether Claudio Ranieri for Mourinho, Luiz Felipe Scolari for Guus Hiddink or Andre Villas-Boas for Roberto Di Matteo, one should not dismiss Abramovich's success rate after inserting new leaders into his club, but the summer of 2011 might be giving the famed owner pause.
Carlo Ancelotti when through a similar depression after winning the Premier League in 2009/10. A team that scored the most goals in EPL history a season prior had a dire three-month spell in 2010/11. The defending champions lost to Liverpool, Sunderland, Birmingham City, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Arsenal—taking just 10 points during the 11-match run.
Realising there was no better option, Abramovich did not sack the Italian, though many thought that would happen: He, contrary to popular perception, gave the defending champion a season.
What might be perceived as a mistake, in hindsight, happened on the last day of 2010/11. After losing to Everton 1-0 at Goodison Park, and finishing nine points from defending their title, Abramovich sacked Ancelotti.
His plan was to replace the veteran manager with Villas-Boas; that plan, however, backfired. Hired in June 2011 from Porto, the out-of-depth manager was sacked by March 2012. Former Blues star Di Matteo, in a miraculous turn of events, led the west Londoners on an improbable run—leading to FA Cup and UEFA Champions League crowns.
In a roundabout fashion, the hiring and firing looked successful. Abramovich captured the holy grail of European football, so the dismissal of Ancelotti 12 months prior was forgotten in the euphoria of lifting club football's most prestigious trophy—but maybe not.
The Champions League victory was the culmination of various hardships the spine of Petr Cech, Ashley Cole, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba struggled through, but a new generation was coming through. Only Terry has survived to present day, and one wonders if Abramovich thinks sacking Mourinho means hitting the restart button on progress that has been made since that was in full effect.
Dismissing Ancelotti was a reset of sorts, and luckily for Chelsea Football Club, it did not backfire, but what are the chances sacking another world-class manager ends in European or even domestic glory? Rarely does an idiot become a billionaire, so Abramovich surely knows the calculus of improving after sacking Mourinho is minimal.
There might be a slight bump in performances with a new boss, but how long does a bump last before another one is necessary? It would mean reverting to the managerial merry-go-round Stamford Bridge has witnessed for the past decade, when stability is of the utmost importance—especially with a stable of young talent begging to break through.
Football has a tendency to focus exclusively on the short-term. The "what have you done for me lately" mentality is apparent at most clubs, and seldom is the long-term picture taken into account.
Sacking Mourinho is a knee-jerk reaction to an almost impossible scenario. In the span of three months, the champions of England morphed into an unrecognisable collective of underperforming footballers (like something from Space Jam).
As quickly as their form vanished, it could just as rapidly return.
No doubt having done a similar projection, Abramovich has likely looked around and thought: "If this squad turns back into the champions we knew from last season, who do I want managing them?" His answer must be Mourinho, lest the Portuguese would have already been given his marching orders.
So, then, what would it take for Chelsea's manager to be sacked?
Two things.
First, he would have to lose the support of the Stamford Bridge faithful. Second, he would have to overtly acknowledge he is no longer the man to lead the club forward—with Abramovich in agreement.
That combination is the only concrete ending of Mourinho in West London's second chapter; anything other is reactionary.
While one cannot discount the possibility of a premature sacking, Chelsea's brass have done well to ignore the temptation thus far.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
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