Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders: What's the Game Plan for Oakland?
The Oakland Raiders need a quality win over the Kansas City Chiefs to break into the playoff picture as a legitimate threat.
Both teams enter this contest with significant injuries—the Chiefs with a few more than the Raiders in key areas.
However, Chiefs running back Charcandrick West rejoins the lineup after missing a game with a hamstring injury. He completes a two-man backfield responsible for propelling the Chiefs into playoff contention.
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The Raiders must find a solution to a lackluster ground attack to extend time of possession and keep the defense fresh down the stretch.
Short Passes to Supplement Struggling Rush Offense
In a press conference with local reporters, head coach Jack Del Rio expressed concern for a rushing offense averaging 73 yards in the last three games.
"We have some things to clean up. Usually when you don’t run it as well, it comes down to the timing on a couple of combination blocks, and whether you’re hitting the hole just right, or whether we’re finishing down field with the receivers, and all the things you’re praising when it goes well. It just wasn’t quite as good as we feel like we’re capable of doing it and we’ve got to go back and refine that.
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Despite taking part in Thursday’s practice, center Rodney Hudson is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game, per Oakland Tribune writer Jerry McDonald.
The Raiders attack the mid-guard and center areas in 60 percent of their runs, per Football Outsiders.
Backup center Tony Bergstrom has played sufficiently as a starter, but he doesn't provide an equal push to Hudson at the line of scrimmage as a run-blocker.
In combination with Hudson’s absence, right guard J’Marcus Webb grades minus-10.6 as one of the worst run-blocking guards in the league, per Pro Football Focus.
Offensive guard Gabe Jackson excels in run-blocking responsibilities on the left side but emphasis toward the strong side kills running back Latavius Murray’s momentum late in games.
The Raiders should mix high-percentage throws with approximately 20-25 rush attempts to loosen the Chiefs' front seven.
Key Players: Marcel Reece and Roy Helu Jr.
The Raiders continue to watch their rushing attack fall flat without a counter. It’s time to reintegrate short-to-intermediate pass-catchers to extend drives when opposing defenses stuff Murray in the backfield.
The coaching staff has nearly eliminated Marcel Reece and Roy Helu Jr. from the game plan, which hinders the offense when struggling to move the ball on the ground.
| Players | Weeks 1-5 | Weeks 7-12 |
| Marcel Reece/Roy Helu | 20 catches, 199 yards and 4 TDs | 8 catches, 48 yards |
*Note: Helu listed as healthy inactive for three games between Weeks 7-12.
Without sustained drives, the Chiefs will have more offensive possessions to wear down the Raiders defense with a power rushing attack.
On Sunday, the Raiders should commit to Murray and fullback Jamize Olawale as part of the game plan. In the event both running backs struggle, Derek Carr must relocate Reece and Helu as passing options.
An effective short-passing attack with high-percentage completions puts Chiefs’ second-year linebacker Dee Ford, who replaces Justin Houston in the lineup, on an island of uncertainty and neutralizes the second-best pass-rusher (6.5 sacks) on the team in Tamba Hali.
Utilizing Three Safeties to Stop Chiefs Offense
Kansas City’s offense takes a flexible approach, featuring a mobile quarterback, complementary pair of running backs and dynamic tight end. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith will likely target the middle of the field as a hot spot when dropping back or moving the pocket.
The Raiders need three safeties playing at the top of their games.
Key Player: Nate Allen
As mentioned, the Chiefs will field a two-man ground attack on Sunday. In three of the last four games, Oakland has allowed 100-plus rushing yards.
| Week | Opponent | Yards Allowed |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 195 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 263 |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | 109 |
| 12 | Tennessee Titans | 44 |
Opposing offenses have run over the Raiders' interior defense or controlled the clock, which plays into Kansas City’s strength.
Defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. should consider dropping safety Nate Allen into the box for run support and as an extra coverage defender on short dump-off passes to West out of the backfield.
Key Player: Charles Woodson
In case you missed it, Smith takes more shots downfield with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin at his disposal. The Chiefs offense uses underneath routes to setup one-on-one situations on the perimeter. Kansas City’s passing attack no longer resembles a flurry of checkdown throws.
Cornerback T.J. Carrie will likely defend Maclin on the outside, but safety Charles Woodson needs to prepare for passes headed his way deep in center field.
Maclin has caught eight passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns on throws 20 or more yards downfield. Smith boasts a 41 percent completion rate on deep throws.
Key Matchup: Taylor Mays vs. Travis Kelce
Norton may have found a strength in safety Taylor Mays' skill set over the past few weeks.
In Week 9, Norton utilized Mays as an undersized linebacker in coverage, positioned close to the line of scrimmage as previously chronicled.
In Week 12, Norton used Mays in the same capacity against Tennessee Titans' leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will become the latest tight end threatening to carve up the Raiders' susceptible linebacker corps. He ranks second on the team in receptions (54) and receiving yards (689) going into Week 13.
Linebacker Neiron Ball will miss his sixth consecutive game on Sunday. Oakland needs more support in short-to-intermediate pass defense to contain Kelce. Mays played 22 snaps in the previous outing and should see about 25-30 snaps to counter Smith's No. 2 passing option.
Prediction
After a 1-5 start, the Chiefs rode a dominant defense into the playoff picture. On Sunday, they’ll take the field without Houston, their sack leader, and safety Abdullah Husain, who plays an integral part of the pass defense.
The Raiders passing offense will find success moving the ball through the air. However, the coaching staff doesn’t seem particularly interested in sustaining drives to help the defense.
In Week 12, Carr eclipsed 300 passing yards and two wide receivers surpassed 100 receiving yards, but Oakland still needed a late touchdown to win the game.
Why’s that?
For one, costly turnovers. Sunday’s weather will bring periods of rain, per ESPN.com's Adam Teicher.
The Chiefs take care of the football. Smith hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers and only fumbled twice through 11 games.
Secondly, a quick-scoring offense without sustained drives keeps opposing defenses fresh and allows more potential scoring drives to the opponent.
On the flip side, Kansas City excels in controlling the clock and limiting the opposition’s scoring opportunities.
If Oakland takes the lead heading into the final quarter, can Murray and Olawale close out a game with Bergstrom and Webb sealing blocks in the middle?
Finally, how will the Raiders run defense hold up against a ground attack, averaging 152.2 yards per game in the last five games?
Chiefs 27, Raiders 23
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All statistics are provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com, Pro Football Focus and Team Rankings, unless otherwise noted.
Oakland Raiders transactions provided by Raiders.com.
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