Porzingis-Mania Aside, Carmelo Anthony, Derek Fisher Hold Keys to Knicks' Hopes
NEW YORK—The New York Knicks have already exceeded most expectations through the early part of the season by working to a 9-10 record through their first 19 games. A 9-10 mark puts them on pace to win approximately 39 games on the year, far ahead of the ESPN Summer Forecast projection of 25 wins.
Still, consistency remains elusive. After starting the season 2-1, the Knicks lost three, won two, lost two, won four and lost four before defeating the hapless Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday.
We've seen glimpses of a playoff-caliber team, and rookie forward Kristaps Porzingis has been a welcome revelation. But the Knicks need head coach Derek Fisher and veteran forward Carmelo Anthony to figure it out if this team is going anywhere.
Lack of rotation consistency
Fisher hasn't had one five-man group that's played together in every game this season. According to NBA.com, only three five-man groups have been used in more than half of New York's games this year.
The team's starting lineup of Jose Calderon, Arron Afflalo, Anthony, Porzingis and Robin Lopez has appeared in just 10 games together. Afflalo missed the first eight games of the season with an injury and Anthony sat out last Sunday's loss to the Houston Rockets with an illness.
That group—the only one guaranteed to see action in every game in which all five players are healthy—is outscoring opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions when on the floor together, per NBA.com, a very good mark.
The other two lineups that have appeared in more than half the Knicks' games, though, have not fared quite as well. Those lineups are Fisher's two all-bench units. Jerian Grant, Langston Galloway, Derrick Williams, Lance Thomas and Kevin Seraphin have played together in 12 games and been outscored by 15.4 points per 100 possessions. The same group with Kyle O'Quinn subbed in for Seraphin has appeared in 11 games and been outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Beyond the starters and backup guards, nobody sees guaranteed minutes on a night-to-night basis. Fisher himself essentially confirmed this to the Wall Street Journal last week.
“Nothing’s set in stone,” Fisher said, after a loss to the Miami Heat, the first of four straight games the team dropped. “There are nights where you’re looking for certain things, and the way teams are using certain substitution patterns, by going small, we have to go a little deeper into our bench. It’s worked well for us so far, but tonight, [against Miami] it didn’t.”
Take a look at the following chart, which shows how often the team's five backup big men—Williams, Thomas, Seraphin, O'Quinn and Lou Amundson—have played a certain number of minutes on a night-to-night basis.
| MIN | Amundson | O'Quinn | Seraphin | Thomas | Williams |
| 20+ | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| 15-19 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 10-14 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 5-9 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 1-4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| DNP | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Led Group | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
The last two rows give you an idea of how quickly these players—Thomas excepted—have fallen in and out of Fisher's favor early in the season. Amundson, O'Quinn and Seraphin have all led the group in minutes on at least one occasion, but they've also all received at least two DNPs (Did Not Play).
Take a look at the following chart to illustrate just how volatile their minutes totals have been:
To boot, the Knicks have only six players on the 2015-16 roster that were present on the 2014-15 roster: Anthony, Calderon, Galloway, Thomas, Amundson and Cleanthony Early, and the latter two rarely play. On most nights, approximately two-thirds of the team's rotation is comprised of players that have never played together before this year.
Young players and new players in sizable roles
The three players earning consistent minutes are simply too young and inexperienced to be counted on for high-caliber play every single night.
Rookies Porzingis and Grant are averaging 28.1 and 18.2 minutes per game, respectively, while second-year man Galloway is seeing 25.5 minutes a night. That's just under 30 percent of the team's minutes going to three players with an average age of 22. It's not surprising there's some inconsistency baked into their performance—young players are generally more inconsistent than older, more established veterans.
Porzingis has been incredibly reliable thus far—certainly more reliable than most preseason expectations would have had you believe. But both Grant and Galloway have seen their contributions wax and wane.
Grant started the season as a transition dynamo and could still be the team's best guard in short order. But teams quickly discovered they could sink off him on pick-and-rolls, dare him to shoot and strangle his drive-and-kick prowess. He went three straight games without a field goal or an assist before figuring some things out over the last few.
Galloway, meanwhile, started the season shooting better than anybody in the league from beyond the arc. He's cooled down considerably over the last week and a half and seen his defensive effectiveness come and go.
Carmelo's shooting
Anthony's shooting has been the most important bellwether for New York's success since he arrived in 2011. Since that time, the Knicks have won 104 of 195 games in which Anthony shot better than 40 percent from the field and only 34 of 88 games in which he shot south of 40 percent.
This season, Carmelo has shot over 40 percent in nine games and under 40 percent in nine games.
There have been many wild swings. He's made one-third of his shots or less in six games and 45 percent or more in seven. Only five times has he shot between 34 and 44 percent.
The Knicks are 6-3 in the games where Anthony has shot better than 40 percent and 3-6 in the games he has not. They lost the lone game he sat out due to illness.
Conclusion
If the Knicks want to compete for the playoffs, they'll need a more clearly delineated rotation. The roster volatility hurts worse with the prevalence of young players and new offseason acquisitions.
For a team as relatively undertalented as the Knicks, though, some variance can actually be somewhat desirable. The lows will be incredibly low, sure, but volatile performances can also lead to incredible highs. That's how you wind up with a team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the conference that has wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder, Rockets and Toronto Raptors as well as close losses to the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers.
There's hope.
