Complete Houston Rockets Power Rankings After Season's 1st Month
The Houston Rockets’ season has not gone the way they anticipated. For a team that entered the season with championship aspirations, it’s been a downright travesty. Words like “flaming outhouse” come to mind. Every time the fire starts to die down, a new pocket of methane ignites.
It’s as though the Rockets are already folding for the season. They fired Kevin McHale, their head coach. Now they are reportedly shopping their star offseason acquisition Ty Lawson, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders: "The Rockets have been sniffing around the league for deals and there is a belief among other teams that Lawson could be had in trade, and had cheaply. Lawson is owed $12.4 million this season with the final $13.21 million of his deal being fully non-guaranteed."
There are different ways that experiments fail. Sometimes, they unexpectedly blow up in your face. Other times, they don't do anything when you want a reaction. The Lawson experiment has fallen into the latter category.
These power rankings were made with that in mind. We’ll consider the back of the bench, the top half and then the starters. Donatas Motiejunas, who has yet to take the court, will not be included.
End of Bench
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Nos. 12-13: Sam Decker and K.J. McDaniels
It's hard to power-rank players who are on the bench all the time. Sam Dekker and K.J. McDaniels continue to ride the pine, totaling 42 minutes of playing time combined. There's not much to discuss here except to ponder why the Rockets traded for a player (McDaniels) they never seem inclined to use. In the 49 games since Houston acquired him, he's played a total of 69 minutes.
Dekker is the Rockets' first-round pick, was sparsely used (six minutes) before undergoing back surgery on Nov. 17 and is expected to be out three months.
No. 11: Montrezl Harrell
Montrezl Harrell, taken in the second round, has actually garnered more playing time and a lot of love from Rockets fans. In the first three games, he averaged 10.7 points and 3.7 boards in 19.8 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com. However, since then he's fallen almost completely out of the rotation.
He's only seen action once in the last five games, and that was just eight minutes in a blowout loss to the Detroit Pistons. When he's in, he shows great character and energy and looks to be another deep-pick steal from Daryl Morey.
No. 10: Jason Terry
It would be nice to write here about how the old man is still getting it done. However, he's struggling on both ends of the court. He no longer has the speed to create shots off the bounce. His lateral quickness prevents him from staying in front of anyone who isn't wearing lead shoes, and sadly, lead shoes aren't a thing yet in the NBA.
He's 10th because he's still (barely) in the rotation (though, he did record healthy DNPs the last two games), not because he's better than Harrell.
Top of Bench
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No. 9: Ty Lawson
There's a reason Lawson is already on the trading block. He's been a hot mess. In fact, based on Value Over Replacement Player, he's the worst player on the Rockets at minus-0.5. Still not convinced? That's not just worst on the Rockets; it's tied for worst in the NBA.
Being fair, after receiving a healthy DNP, he's been better the last two games, averaging 11.5 points and 4.5 assists in 24.1 minutes per game with a 71.0 true shooting percentage. And he's been passing the eye test too, showing less hesitancy. It may be that something got through to him, and this could work out yet. But we'll need more than a two-game sample size before we reach that conclusion.
No. 8: Corey Brewer
Last year, Corey Brewer was a huge catalyst to the Rockets' fast break. This year, not so much. In 2014-15, according to NBA.com, he averaged points 4.1 fast-break points. That's down to 2.6 this season.
He's always been a master of leaking out, and one wonders if he's missing the outlet passing of Josh Smith. Brewer has been shockingly inefficient, scoring just 0.95 points per possession on transition opportunities, which ranks in the 27.8 percentile. And, only two of 28 players with 40-plus attempts are scoring at a lower rate.
No. 7: Marcus Thornton
Marcus Thornton has been up and down, but his ups have done a good job of coinciding with the Rockets' wins. He's averaging 11.9 points on 53.5 percent true shooting in Houston's wins compared to just 10.2 points on 48.6 percent true shooting in losses. And Houston is 4-2 when he's been a plus compared to 4-7 when opponents have outscored the Rockets with Thornton on the court.
He has been as much of a sparkplug as they've had off the bench, even if he occasionally misfires.
No. 6: Terrence Jones
Terrence Jones entered the season as the starting power forward, but he has since lost that slot to the impressive Clint Capela. That wasn't Jones playing himself out of a job as much as it was Capela playing himself into one.
The move may have actually helped Jones, though, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:
"Terrence Jones’ production has not changed greatly since his move to the bench, but he said there could be more opportunities to score with the second unit and that he had been instructed to be more aggressive on the boards.
He is averaging 14.9 points per 36 minutes as a starter and 13.9 points per 36 minutes off the bench. But he has averaged 9.3 rebounds per 36 minutes as a reserve compared to just 6.7 as a starter.
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5. Patrick Beverley
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Patrick Beverley must feel better about himself. After getting relegated to second-citizen status and watching the Ty Lawson experiment fail, he rejoined the starting lineup. And guess what? Things started to improve. In the four games he has started, the Rockets are 3-1.
There's an easy conclusion to make here. Beverley's resumption of former duties is why the Rockets are playing more like last year's version than this year's version. However, the opposition outscored Houston with Beverley on the court in three of the four games.
Another conclusion is that James Harden can get into a better rhythm with Beverley, playing the basketball he's used to. But Harden's true shooting percentage is 50.8 percent when he's sharing the court with Beverley and 58.4 percent when Beverley is sitting down.
And Beverley's defense isn't making the difference either. In the four games since he started, Houston's defensive rating is 109.5 with him and 106.6 without him.
So for now, probably the main reason Beverley's move into the starting lineup has resulted in winning is that he's not Lawson, which isn't the highest praise.
4. Trevor Ariza
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Last year, Trevor Ariza was quietly one of the better three-and-D wings in the league. He had a defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) of 1.3 and made 2.4 threes per game. The only other player who did that was Danny Green of the San Antonio Spurs.
But Ariza has been struggling a bit this year. His made threes are down to 1.9. His three-point percentage is down from 35 to 31. And his DBPM is actually a minus-0.9.
And, opponents are shooting 1.1 percent above their season average when he is guarding them, per NBA.com. We can put some of the blame for the Rockets' defensive struggles on Harden's apathy, and that's entirely fair, but we can't ignore that their elite defensive players are not playing at an elite level either.
However, if looking at the last four games where the Rockets have gotten traction, Ariza seems to be the one who is finding his old form, and that might be part of the reason for the turnaround. He's an outstanding glue guy when he's at his best, and Houston needs him to be that.
3. Clint Capela
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Clint Capela wasn't supposed to be starting yet. But he forced his way in by being awesome. There's a very real case to be made that he should be No. 2 on this list, and the only reason he's not is that it's still a little short on sample size.
But the fact is that all the indicators are showing that Capela has serious All-Star potential in his future. He is rapidly becoming one of the better bigs in the NBA, and that's really not an exaggeration.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, only four bigs have a higher player efficiency rating (PER) than Capela's 24.1 this season: Derrick Favors (26.4), Hassan Whiteside (26.0), Anthony Davis (25.90) and Andre Drummond (24.6). No one is going to argue that any of those guys doesn't deserve All-Star consideration.
But PER is a stat that favors players who get the ball a lot, and Capela's usage percentage of 16.9 is low compared to the others: Favors (23.2), Whiteside (20.9), Davis (29.4) and Drummond (24.8). It's amazing that Capela is chalking up 15.9 points and 12.5 boards per 36 minutes on 63 percent true shooting, and he's doing it all with nary a play being drawn up for him.
And he's doing it on the other end of the court too. His Defensive Real Plus-Minus at ESPN.com is a lofty 2.59, 10th-best among those who man the middle. And, when playing together with Dwight Howard, the duo posts an eye-bulging net rating of 20.3.
2. Dwight Howard
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There are all kinds of stones you can hurl at the Rockets' starting center, but for now, he retains second-best player rights, even when accounting for the occasional rest games to prevent an injury. Capela may be outplaying him through the first quarter of the season, but Howard has a large enough body of work to hold his position here for now.
That placement, though, is in danger.
His defense is just no longer the force it once was. Opponents are shooting 3.8 percentage points better when he is guarding them. According to ESPN.com, his DRPM is 17th among centers.
Probably the most revealing and scary stat, though, is that based on Seth Partnow's rim protection numbers at Nylon Calculus, Howard is giving up 17.12 adjusted points per 36 minutes inside. That's the ninth-lowest among all qualified players, of which there are, by rough count, about 100.
That is bad, especially for a three-time Defensive Player of the Year.
Howard's scoring is down too, as he's averaging a meager 12.9 points.
He's still grabbing 12.3 boards, but the rest of his game is faltering. For now, his placement here is a refusal to cave to recency bias, but if he doesn't improve, he'll drop.
1. James Harden
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For better or worse, the Houston Rockets go as James Harden goes. That's true when he's eviscerating opponents and making the scoreboard ding like a pinball machine. And that's true when he's clanking shots off the rim and yelling at teammates for letting him watch the ball-handler get past him.
Harden is averaging 29.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game. Other players to average numbers like that are Michael Jordan, Jerry West, LeBron James, Richie Guerin and Oscar Robertson.
On the other hand, Harden's regression on defense and failure to demonstrate even a modicum of interest on that end are valid criticisms. As Des Beiler wrote for the Washington Post:
"Remember when James Harden had supposedly vastly improved his defense last season? Which is to say, the Houston Rockets guard went from terrible to not-quite-as-terrible?
Yeah, those days appear to be over. Except that now, Harden seems to have gone from “terrible” to “thoroughly apathetic.”
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Then Beiler shows several plays demonstrating Harden's commitment to that apathy with several bits of video evidence.
If you want one game that explains everything that is right and wrong with Harden, look no further than the Rockets' 116-114 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Nov. 27. On the one hand, Harden dropped 50 points on 14-of-28 shooting, going 6-of-12 from deep and 16-of-20 free throws.
That's sensational...until you remember that it took a 50-burger from Harden for the Rockets to beat the Sixers.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
