NFL Picks and Predictions Week 13: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

To me, the easiest stretches of gambling in the NFL are between Weeks 10 and 15. By this time of the season, we know who teams are. Point differential seems to go up, as teams collectively quit on the season. You pick the better team, or you identify who still has the heart to carry on as an underdog.

Last weekend was huge for our predictions. We went 9-4 overall, including a 4-1 record in our "Locks." We took Baltimore, who won 33-27 as an underdog against Cleveland; Houston, who beat down the Saints 24-6; Indianapolis, who ended Tampa Bay's momentum with a 25-12 victory; and Minnesota, who won 20-10 as an underdog in Atlanta. They covered our lines by nine, 15, 10 and 12.5 points, respectively. We didn't just win these bets, we won them by two- or three-score margins.

Our one "Lock" blemish was taking the Pittsburgh Steelers, who allowed an 80-yard touchdown to Doug Baldwin with two minutes left in the game when the Seattle Seahawks were already up a score and were facing 3rd-and-10. Just a nightmare play. If we could make that bet for this Sunday, I would do it again. The Steelers just couldn't answer in crunch time with Landry Jones in CenturyLink Field, falling 39-30 to Seattle. It was a five-point cover by the Seahawks, a team that doesn't win shootouts.

My goal of this season was to get to 55 percent in all picks and 60 percent in "locks." Without further adieu, let's try to make you money this week. 

All picks ATS: 86-71-5 (.546)

Locks of the Week ATS: 36-24-1 (.608)

Thursday Night Football: Green Bay @ Detroit

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Green Bay 27, Detroit 23

Things happened in this game that can't be unseen. The Detroit Lions were home dogs by three points and managed to blow a 20-point lead. Just some next-level Lions-ing on prime-time television.

I don't know if there's much to say here. You can't trust a lead with Detroit, and Aaron Rodgers can score from anywhere on the field. If the fans who are complaining about a "phantom facemask" broke down film frame by frame, we'd have a much more educated public. Instead, most don't and just ask that officials get every call right down to a centimeter's difference in a live play. Sure.

Maybe the Lions shouldn't have put themselves into a position where one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the sport's history has a chance to come away with the lead after they were up three scores at home. Jim Caldwell is still potentially the next head coach to lose his job. He has a long week to get his players together to discuss their mistakes.

The Packers covered by one point in possibly the most emotional way in the 2015 season. It's a 60-minute game, and Richard Rodgers' Hail Mary catch reminded the state of Michigan of that on Thursday Night Football.

Cover: Packers

New York Jets @ New York Giants

Al Pereira/Getty Images

Opening line: New York Jets @ New York Giants (PK)

Current line: New York Jets @ New York Giants (+2)

We have another fabled neutral-site game! The Jets and Giants both play in MetLife Stadium and will face off in an AFC-NFC match this Sunday.

This line opened with even odds, but Todd Bowles' Jets are now making the push as favorites by about two points across the board, despite the fact that the Giants are the "home team." Both of these teams are trending downward but have playoff hopes.

The Giants are tied with the Washington Redskins for first in the NFC East with a 5-6 record, despite back-to-back losses and four losses in their last six overall games. In a horrible division, they're still motivated enough to keep fighting, though a double-digit-win season is out of probable reality. They should still be viewed as the favorites in the East to host a playoff game during the Wild Card Round, just based on talent alone.

On the other hand, the Jets have no chance to win the AFC East. The New England Patriots are 10-1, four games ahead of the Mean Green. Still, if the season ended today, the Jets would be the seventh seed in the AFC. They're right on the cusp of controlling their own destiny in the wild-card hunt.

Eli Manning is volatile. Every time we count him out, he does something amazing. Every time he does something amazing, he lets us down the next week. Last week's three-interception performance against Washington was absolutely a letdown, but I don't think that this is necessarily a bounce-back spot for the Giants.

The Jets defensive line is just so strong that it's hard to imagine the Giants winning much in the trenches. Throw in the fact that Manning's defense won't help him much and you're hard-pressed to take this game straight up. So long as this line is less than three points, I'm taking the Jets.

The pick: New York Jets (PK)

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Opening line: Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (PK)

Current line: Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-2)

As much as Atlanta's regression to the mean has been fun to bet on, this is where we finally draw the line. The Falcons opened up as coin tosses against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and even in Tampa, they should be viewed as favorites. Sure, Matt Ryan is struggling, but the Buccaneers aren't the Minnesota Vikings.

Jameis Winston has made tremendous strides this season, and according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, he even called plays two weeks ago when the headsets went out. Still, where do the Buccaneers have the edge against the Falcons other than quarterback?

The offensive line, backfield and receiver units go to Atlanta. I would say the second-best offensive player that Tampa has is Mike Evans, the sophomore receiver who is special at times but has too many drops to be reliable. On just about every level of the defensive side of the ball, I would give the nod to the Falcons too.

In Atlanta, am I comfortable with the Falcons covering a four-point line? Yes. That's the reflective line based on home-field advantage and power ranking. The right pick is to take the road team that has lost five of its last six games. Brace yourself for an odd Sunday.

The pick: Atlanta (+2)

Baltimore @ Miami

David Richard/Associated Press

Opening line: Baltimore @ Miami (-4.5)

Current line: Baltimore @ Miami (-4)

Cleveland fans are still crying over the blocked would-be game-winner against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. Matt Schaub threw a pick-six, which was as predictable as anything in the NFL, but the Ravens got the job done in a victory.

Baltimore just won't quit, even this late into a 4-7 season when it ranks a good distance behind the 9-2 Cincinnati Bengals and the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers in the division. As of this second, the Ravens are the 12th seed in the AFC. Their opponent this week, the Miami Dolphins, is the 13th seed.

Assuming Miami gets three points for home-field advantage, which is questionable due to its recent attendance record, then this line should be the Dolphins by three points, right? Wrong. It opened up at 4.5 points. Why?

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who has been with the team for just 11 games, told Miami's locker room that he runs the defense. Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald called it a "funeral locker room." The Dolphins also fired their offensive coordinator after losing to the in-division Jets by three scores Sunday.

Why would they be favored on a neutral field? Because the Ravens have a backup quarterback in? It didn't seem to bother them all too much against the Browns, and I'm not confident Miami is even better than Cleveland. Sure, Baltimore is coming off a short week, but I'm not willing to stick my neck out for an inconsistent Dolphins team that fired many of its leaders already and is having a power struggle with a $114 million defensive tackle who is now the face of the franchise for signing his name on a contract.

The pick: Baltimore (+4.5)

Seattle @ Minnesota

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Opening line: Seattle @ Minnesota (PK)

Current line: Seattle @ Minnesota (PK)

Is Seattle a top-five team in the NFL again? I'm not sure it's a lock, but it is in the conversation, which is a huge improvement from where it was in the beginning of the season. After losing four close games in the first six weeks of the year, the Seahawks now sit at 6-5 and would earn the sixth seed in the NFC if the season ended today.

I would go as far as to say the Seahawks are a better team than the 8-3 Minnesota Vikings, who control the NFC North and are slated to host a playoff game as a third seed. Seattle's defensive identity is stronger, plus it has the edge at quarterback. Even with tight end Jimmy Graham out, I would still give the Seahawks an edge on a neutral field.

This game is at even odds, but it's around the time of year when the better teams just find ways to win. A desperate Seattle team is going to try to frantically tread water and stick in as a wild-card team, while the Vikings, who have been to the playoffs only once since 2009, make sense on paper as a "young at home" slip-up squad. Can we trust them? We have no basis to yet.

Quietly, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is having the best year of his career in 2015. You'd never have thought that based on how the season started, but he has a better passer rating, yards-per-attempt average and completion percentage than any stretch during his rookie contract. If I told you that the Seahawks would have the best version of Wilson to date heading into Minnesota, who would you have taken with even odds? This is a slam dunk.

The pick: Seattle (PK)

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Opening line: Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+7.5)

Current line: Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+9.5)

So this game features one of the most tortured franchises of all time and a team that is top-five in the NFL. Fun matchup.

The Cleveland Browns have completely lost it. There seems to be a power struggle between the coaching staff, front office and ownership. How else can you explain how Johnny Manziel was drafted with a first-round pick but is being kept off the field by Mike Pettine? Even before Manziel's bye-week episode, this was the case.

Josh McCown lost the starting job. Manziel finally was given the reins, and then he lost control, McCown got hurt, and now Austin Davis is starting this football game as a statement from the coaching staff. This comes from a team that has lost 14 of its last 16 regular-season games. Pettine seems to be the worst coach in the league, and with Jim Caldwell looking competent again, Pettine is likely the next coach to see the door.

A seven-point line in Cleveland means this would be a 13-point game in Cincinnati. The Browns have emotionally quit on the season and are in disaster mode. The Baltimore Ravens spotted them a Matt Schaub pick-six on Monday, and they still couldn't finish off a squad that started 1-6.

The Bengals have the best offensive coordinator in the sport and the best top-to-bottom roster in the NFL. This might be the biggest in-division mismatch we'll see from this point in the season on. Give me Cincinnati by a mile.

The pick: Cincinnati (-7.5)

Houston @ Buffalo

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Opening line: Houston @ Buffalo (-3)

Current line: Houston @ Buffalo (-3)

Is it crazy for me to think that the Houston Texans are better than the Buffalo Bills on a neutral field? They've won five of their last six, despite the fact that T.J. Yates, their third quarterback of 2015, had to play in a couple of those games. J.J. Watt once again looks like the most dominant player in the NFL.

Buffalo has great talent on the defensive side of the ball, but at times, Rex Ryan gets too cute with his schemes. There's no reason why you need to drop talented pass-rushers into coverage just to disguise a linebacker blitzing. It's one thing to know what an opponent is going to run, but it's another thing to stop it. The Bills have what is essentially an unblockable defensive line, which they aren't capitalizing on.

Offensively, Sammy Watkins is starting to look like the elite prospect he was tabbed as coming out of Clemson. Buffalo's offensive line is subpar, though. It has a two-headed monster in the backfield with LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, and when Tyrod Taylor decides to tuck it, he's one of the best dual-threat passers in the league.

Still, Houston's recent hot streak has me wondering if it has changed course for the season. The Texans are second in a winnable AFC South. The Bills are third in the AFC East, headed by the one-loss Patriots who are coming off a Super Bowl victory. Buffalo is the 10th seed in the AFC behind wild-card candidates such as the Texans, Chiefs (who beat the Bills by more than a touchdown last weekend), Jets (an in-division opponent), Steelers (who at times look like one of the hottest teams in the NFL) and Raiders (who have one of the best young passers in the league).

How long are the Bills going to hold onto postseason aspirations as motivation? This might be the last week for the 5-6 team.

The pick: Houston (+3)

Arizona @ St. Louis

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Opening line: Arizona @ St. Louis (+5.5)

Current line: Arizona @ St. Louis (+6)

The Todd Gurley experience was fun while it lasted, but we're now realizing how much running backs are truly valued at the NFL level. If you can't throw the ball, you just can't win games, even with a strong ground game and defense. How many wins do you think the Carolina Panthers would have right now if the combo of Nick Foles and Case Keenum started for the squad instead of Cam Newton?

Across from the Rams will be the Arizona Cardinals sideline, led by Carson Palmer, who like Newton is an MVP candidate. Against bad quarterbacks, Arizona's defense has made teams look like fools. Who can forget the matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, when Colin Kaepernick had a higher passer rating throwing to the Cardinals than his own teammates. This Arizona team is built to make a playoff run, and head coach Bruce Arians is ruthless and determined.

I don't care that the Cardinals lost by two points the first time these two teams went head-to-head. They've smashed bad teams all year, and with the Los Angeles move hanging over the Rams' franchise, their home-field advantage hasn't really panned out this season, either. Arizona fans are not the types to travel to Missouri for this game, but maybe some diehards from when the Cardinals were in Chicago will make the trip.

Either way, I'm not going to give the Rams a three-point edge just because they are at home. The Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites on the road, and I'm comfortable with taking this line so long as it's under seven points. They're just better than the team coached by Jeff Fisher, who by the way, needs to get his act together if he wants to finish 8-8.

The pick: Arizona (-5.5)

San Francisco @ Chicago

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Opening line: San Francisco @ Chicago (-6.5)

Current line: San Francisco @ Chicago (-7.5)

These have been two of my favorite teams to bet on this season, at least under their current starting quarterbacks. After the first few weeks of the year, the Chicago Bears had the inside track for the first overall pick, at least according to the gambling odds. Jay Cutler has seemingly saved the life of his contract this season, and the Bears now are in the wild-card hunt in the NFC.

The San Francisco 49ers have looked much better under Blaine Gabbert than Colin Kaepernick and have covered twice in three games: One was straight-up win against the Atlanta Falcons, and the other was last week's six-point loss to the Arizona Cardinals when they were facing a double-digit spread.

From a power-ranking standpoint, this line is just too high. I get the Bears being a four- or five-point favorite, but opening at 6.5 points? Quietly, the Bears are 1-4 as a straight-up home team and 1-3-1 against the spread at home this season. I'm not calling an upset here, but this line should be much closer to three points than seven.

Vegas knows that the public likes recently warm Chicago and still has a bad taste in its mouth about Gabbert. You can make Vegas pay for posting a poor line, but only if you're willing to make the non-sexy pick.

The pick: San Francisco (+7.5)

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Opening line: Jacksonville @ Tennessee (PK)

Current line: Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-2.5)

This line opened up as a coin flip between the home Tennessee Titans and the away Jacksonville Jaguars. Though their records aren't very different, the Jaguars are still in the running for the AFC South crown, while the Titans look to be more focused on youth development and the coming offseason.

As a coin flip, I was a bit stuck. Yes, Jacksonville is a better team, but are we going to trust Blake Bortles on the road? Now that this line has moved up to the Tennessee Titans as 2.5-point favorites, which would give the Jaguars a mere half-point edge on a neutral field assuming Tennessee is awarded three points for being the home team, I'm fully intrigued.

I like Jacksonville in this spot. There's two points of buffer help, and if this line reaches the key number of three, I'm sprinting to lock it in before it drops again. The Titans have won one non-Week 1 game in regulation in two years. They are favorites in this game. Sorry, I'm not going to take Tennessee as a favorite against anyone.

The pick: Jacksonville (+2.5)

Kansas City @ Oakland

James Kenney/Associated Press

Opening line: Kansas City @ Oakland (+3)

Current line: Kansas City @ Oakland (+3)

All right, let's pump the breaks here. Kansas City has been on a hot streak since it lost Jamaal Charles. I don't really get why the Chiefs waited until they lost their best player to open up the offense, but that's what Andy Reid has done.

In their last five games, they've won by more than a touchdown in every matchup. Only four squads—Carolina, Green Bay, New England and Arizona—have more than five wins by eight or more points over the course of the season, let alone in that time span. Still, I'm not totally sold on the Chiefs. They used to be a squad that was flying under the radar, much like the Oakland Raiders earlier this season, but they're now noticed.

The result? They're three-point favorites on the road. Assuming a home-field-advantage swing of six points, which may end up actually being closer to 6.5 points in Kansas City, the Chiefs would be nine-point favorites at home. We went from praising a team that was just trying to stay alive to assuming a near double-digit victory in ideal situations. The power ranking here is just off. The Raiders aren't six points worse on a neutral field.

Derek Carr has a quick trigger, and that's what you need to beat Kansas City. You need to neutralize that pass rush to get anything going. Defensively, Oakland isn't much, but neither is Alex Smith in red and yellow. A field-goal victory by a 6-5 road team gives me a push for a 5-6 team with better film than its record? I'll take it.

The pick: Oakland (+3)

Philadelphia @ New England

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Opening line: Philadelphia @ New England (-13)

Current line: Philadelphia @ New England (-11)

On principal, this line is just too high. Whenever we see a double-digit line, it should fire off a signal in your head to be cautious. The New England Patriots are very talented. I get that the Philadelphia Eagles are coming off back-to-back 45-point defensive performances, but they should be rested after a long week.

Look, the issue in Philadelphia on the defensive side of the ball isn't talent but rest. The Eagles are last in the league in offensive time of possession, and their once top-five defense now is being slaughtered. With extra rest, you have to assume they look more like their early-season selves.

New England, though, has some personnel issues that it won't be getting over anytime soon. Tight end and future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski looks to be out with some sort of a knee injury. This is after left tackle Nate Solder, running back Dion Lewis and receivers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman got seriously hurt.

This line is just too juiced up for me. The Patriots have only won by more than 13 in four of their 11 games this season. Those results were against the Jaguars, the Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys, the Dolphins on a short week in Dan Campbell's second game as head coach and the Redskins.

The Eagles are better than those squads. They've lost by over 13 points the last two weeks, but if you're betting on what teams look like in two-game sample sizes instead of the full season, you're going to get swindled out of money more times than not.

The pick: Philadelphia (+13)

Carolina @ New Orleans

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Opening line: Carolina @ New Orleans (+7)

Current line: Carolina @ New Orleans (+7)

The Carolina Panthers are sprinting a marathon and showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. They're the final undefeated team of the 2015 season, backed by an amazing defense and a strong running game. When your complementary identity is Cam Newton, an MVP candidate, then you're in pretty good shape.

The Panthers are virtual locks to win the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints, at 4-7, are basically out of the playoff race. On top of that, three of New Orleans' wins came in a three-week stretch when Drew Brees was hot. In their past two games, the Saints have scored 20 points combined.

They just aren't a good team.

New Orleans has a bottom-five defense, a head coach halfway out of the door, a fired defensive coordinator and a past-his-prime quarterback. An amazing combo when you're going to face the top team in the league!

Five of the Saints' seven losses have been by seven or more points. Eight of Carolina's 11 wins have been by seven or more points. The Panthers should win by seven points on paper, even on the road. In all five of their road games this season, they've covered. Dab on them, folks. Carolina hasn't lost in the regular season in more than a year, and I don't see a reason why this New Orleans team bucks the trend.

The pick: Carolina (-7)

Denver @ San Diego

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Opening line: Denver @ San Diego (+3)

Current line: Denver @ San Diego (+4)

Oh man, this one could get ugly. San Diego has allowed 28, 24, 31, 27, 24, 27, 37, 29, 22, 33 and 25 points defensively this year. If it wins, it has to be in a shootout. The problem is, Denver's defense is so talented that not only can it close the Chargers out early, but it can force a one-sided passing game for the entire second half.

Wonder how these two teams match up? Look at what the Kansas City Chiefs did to the Chargers two weeks ago: a 33-3 beatdown in Qualcomm Stadium. A great defense will demolish San Diego from a matchup perspective, since the Chargers' is so weak.

With Brock Osweiler in the lineup, Denver was able to beat the New England Patriots, who lost one game between Week 4 of 2014 and last Sunday, only including when Tom Brady played the full game. The "Bronckos" are Super Bowl contenders. San Diego is in the running for a top-five pick, which it deserves based on its on-field talent.

I was willing to throw the towel in on the Chargers' season before last weekend. A one-score victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars isn't going to sway me from my position: San Diego stinks and needs to completely rebuilt both its defense and offensive line.

The pick: Denver (-3)

Sunday Night Football: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh

John Froschauer/Associated Press

This might be the backup quarterback bowl for Sunday Night Football. Andrew Luck is out, with Matt Hasselbeck, the undefeated 40-year-old, starting in his place. Ben Roethlisberger self-reported concussion symptoms during Sunday's game and has since been placed through the NFL's protocol. Because of the uncertainty, many books are withholding lines to this game. We'll give a prediction in Sunday's Last-Minute Betting Guide.

Monday Night Football: Dallas @ Washington

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Opening line: Dallas @ Washington (-3)

Current line: Dallas @ Washington (-4.5)

The Dallas Cowboys aren't going to place Tony Romo on the injured reserve list because they aren't 100 percent sure he won't be back for the playoffs. Yes, the 3-8 Cowboys still have playoff hopes. They're on life support, but don't tell them you don't believe in miracles.

One reason they think they have a chance to get into the postseason? The 5-6 Washington Redskins lead the NFC East and would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. 2015 has been a weird year.

Dallas hasn't won a game without Romo. So you should just blindly take the Redskins, right? Wrong. Even without a win under their belt, the Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden Cowboys went into two overtime games against the Saints and Eagles, plus they only lost by four to the Buccaneers, after a Jameis Winston goal-line fumble was overturned due to an interference call with seconds on the clock. They also suffered a one-point loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who are now considered a top-10 team in the league.

Dallas isn't as bad as its record. Washington is OK. That's fine. OK teams shouldn't be favored by more than three points against other OK teams. In a lot of those games where Romo didn't play, neither did star receiver Dez Bryant. He's now back, and this might be a situation for the Cowboys to win straight up. So long as you can get Dallas as more than a three-point dog, I'm willing to sign off.

Extended rest for the Cowboys should only help.

The pick: Dallas (+4.5)

Locks of the Week

David Goldman/Associated Press

1. Atlanta (+2) @ Tampa Bay
2. New York Jets (PK) @ New York Giants
3. Seattle (PK) @ Minnesota
4. Houston (+3) @ Buffalo
5. Dallas (+4.5) @ Washington

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.