Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Clemson is 12-0 and a win away from making the College Football Playoff but it's also only 5-7 against the spread this season, because with success comes increasingly tough lines. North Carolina, meanwhile, is 11-1 straight up and 8-4 ATS, because it's been playing under the radar. The Tigers and Heels meet for some big stakes in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday.

Point spread: The Tigers opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 44.8-37.0 Tigers

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

UNC owns an 11-game winning streak, with eight covers, after taking care of business last week, beating rival North Carolina State in Raleigh 45-34. The Heels exploded out to a 35-7 lead in the first quarter and cruised home from there, easily covering four points.

North Carolina racked up 553 yards of offense on the Wolfpack, 374 on the ground, as running back Elijah Hood popped off for a career-high 220. The Tar Heels let NC State pull to within 35-23 late in the third quarter, then immediately reapplied the gas and drove 11 plays for another touchdown, squelching the rally.

The Heels have now hit the 40-point mark seven times this season.

North Carolina is making its first appearance in the ACC Championship Game and should be sky-high for this one, with the chance to pull off the upset and even perhaps make the CFP.

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

Clemson carries a 15-game winning streak into this conference title game, after outlasting South Carolina in Columbia last week 37-32. Like North Carolina, the Tigers took a big early lead last week, allowed the game to tighten up, then immediately reasserted control with a touchdown drive. In this case Clemson built a 28-10 advantage, let the Gamecocks get within 28-25, then drove 60 yards for a score and a nine-point lead, sealing the deal.

The Tigers piled up 515 yards of offense last week, 236 on the ground, as both quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Wayne Gallman hit the century mark.

Clemson has now outgained each of its last eight opponents by at least 113 yards. It's also now 15-1 in games Watson has started.

The Tigers are playing in the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2011, and with a victory would make the CFP.

Smart pick

Clemson comes in with the Heisman-candidate quarterback and the No. 1 ranking, but also the weight of playing as the favorite; North Carolina gets to play with the freedom of the underdog. Take the Heels here, and they might not even need the points.

Betting trends

The favored team is 4-0 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.

North Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last six games against Clemson.

Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.