2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 12
It's over. Well, the college football regular season isn't totally over, but when rivalry week comes to a close, it feels like the year has already passed. We have championship week and Army-Navy before the bowl games begin. This season has just flashed by right in front of us.
Still, there's plenty of work to be done in the draft world. As always, we'll cover this week's stock movement of some of the biggest names in the 2016 draft class. Some players have solidified their inconsistency issues, while others had late-season flashes that will propel them into the draft cycle.
This week features a Heisman contender, two quarterbacks, a pair of teammates moving in opposite directions and a top-five mock draft for the fans of teams who have already thrown in the towel. With your free time on Saturdays, you're more than welcome to start digging into the class and making a wish list. Hopefully, our weekly article has given you a head start on your fellow fans who wait until the combine to start looking at these prospects.
Stock Up: Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
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Lane Kiffin will absolutely wear down his best offensive player. We've seen this over and over when he was at USC and Alabama. Just remember what the Crimson Tide's offense looked like last season: built around Amari Cooper with multiple backs rotating touches in the ground game.
Now? It's the Derrick Henry Show. Against Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Alabama held the lead from midway through the second quarter and on. In an attempt to eat some clock, Kiffin wound up giving Henry 46 carries in what looks to be his final regular-season game, as the junior running back has the talent to declare for the NFL draft.
Listed at 6'3" and 242 pounds, it's hard to find a comparison for him. He can handle a bulk load of touches, but he's not much of a pass-catcher. Against Ole Miss, he had five receptions. In the rest of his junior year combined, he's had five.
As a complementary back last season, he had more rushing yards on fewer carries than T.J. Yeldon, who was the 36th overall pick in the 2015 class by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Henry isn't necessarily better than Yeldon, but he should also go in the second round based on his talent.
The likely Heisman winner is going to receive comparisons to LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Jacobs, who had posted four 1,000-yard seasons combined in terms of total offense. Henry can't do everything for you like Ezekiel Elliott can, which is why he won't end up going in the first round, but he can be the top back in an offense that already has a third-down specialist.
Find a Danny Woodhead, Dion Lewis or Darren Sproles type in free agency and draft Henry in the second instead of taking a running back in the first round. That's the easiest way to stretch out your assets at this position in this class.
Current draft projection: Second round
Stock Down: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
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If you look at Will Fuller's box score against Stanford, you're going to think I'm crazy for saying his stock is slipping. Against a potential title contender, he had six receptions for 136 yards and a score, but 73 of those yards came on one long bomb down the left sideline in the second quarter.
Fuller obviously wins with explosive plays, but his consistency is a major issue. His hands are going to keep him on the board in the first round. However, there's a long history of players with drop issues who haven't panned out in the NFL, and it hurts their franchises.
Two of the young culprits right now are Mike Evans and Davante Adams. Evans has brutal drops in the worst situations, and Adams turned 11 targets into 14 yards on Thanksgiving against the Chicago Bears.
Fuller is a 6'0" 21-year-old. Most receivers can't produce until their third year in the league, and the majority of draft prospects are either seniors or redshirt juniors. Fuller is just young for his craft. This is basically the same situation that happened with Adams. He was a redshirt sophomore when he declared for the draft. He showed promise as a rookie, but as a second-year player in 2015, he's underwhelmed as the No. 2 man in Green Bay's offense.
If you're going to take Fuller, he's going to need two years to refine his raw athleticism. He's going to have growing pains. That's fine, but right now, people are talking about him as a first-round lock, which is setting up unrealistic expectations for him out of the gate. Not everyone can be Odell Beckham Jr. He's the exception, not the rule.
Current draft projection: Second round
Stock Up: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
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One week after his backup beat Ohio State, the team that won the national championship last season, Connor Cook put the exclamation point on his senior season. NFL teams will make excuses for the 6'4" and 220-pound pro-style passer, and the film he posted Saturday will do him wonders.
He had his highest passer rating against a Power Five team and his highest completion percentage for the year against Penn State in a 55-16 victory. More importantly, he showed that he could zip the ball in the deep and intermediate levels of the field when asked, and he finished with three touchdowns.
With that effort, he's now back into the spotlight of the ever-changing quarterback scene in this class. As it looks right now, he and Paxton Lynch of Memphis are going to be the top two quarterbacks to come off the board. Imagine Cook as a Blake Bortles type, while Lynch is a taller Ryan Tannehill. Now, who would have gone first off the board if they were in the same class? That's the real question.
As I mentioned before, though, if you look like a quarterback and even play somewhat efficiently, an NFL team will fall in love with you. There's a horrible hit rate on passers because too often general managers sell themselves on someone who is considered a reach.
Is he in play for a team such as the Cleveland Browns or Dallas Cowboys? We'll soon find out, but the fact that we're even entertaining the idea of it means he's going in the right direction.
Current draft projection: First round
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Stock Down: Patrick Towles, QB, Kentucky
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Patrick Towles may wind up being the best senior quarterback prospect next year, if he decides to stay in school. When you isolate his best plays, he looks like an NFL starter. He's very much a "highlight player" like Christian Hackenberg of Penn State and Cardale Jones of Ohio State. Hackenberg has undrafted free-agent consistency, and Jones lost his starting job, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a draft analyst who believes they will stick around for a senior year.
That's just how thirsty the quarterback market is. These NFL franchises would drink sand if they were told to. Towles, like Jones, was benched at times while at Kentucky. After completing less than 50 percent of his passes in back-to-back-to-back games against Tennessee, Georgia and Vanderbilt, he threw a total of four passes combined against Charlotte and Louisville.
He also had a disaster game against Florida in which he threw two interceptions and only completed eight of 24 passes in a 14-9 loss. He posted a farewell on his Instagram page on Sunday morning. It's evident that he will become a graduate transfer and play at another Power Five school in 2016. Hopefully, he'll develop into the star we believe he can be. He has the arm and size to get it done, but he's playing too volatile.
I include this as 2016 news as college students tend to be flaky with their decisions. He's not going to play for Kentucky any longer, but there's no promise that an agent doesn't get into his ear and try to get him to come out a year early in this weak class. One flipped decision that comes to mind from last season was when the suspended Noah Spence said he'd go pro on Twitter but instead transferred to Eastern Kentucky from Ohio State. Given the opportunity to flash at the combine and pro days, Towles might be a top-five passer in this bad quarterback draft.
Current draft projection: Fourth round
Stock Up: Sheldon Day, DL, Notre Dame
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While Will Fuller had a subpar day overall, his teammate Sheldon Day helped himself out against Stanford on Saturday. The question that will linger over Day's draft evaluation will continue to be his length, though. He's listed at 6'2" and 285 pounds, but I wouldn't be surprised if he measured in at the combine closer to 6'0" flat.
He's explosive and productive and has experience in an NFL type of defense. That's perfect, except for the fact that there's no plug-and-play position for him in any defense. He doesn't have the size to play 0-, 1- or 3-technique defensive tackle. He also doesn't have the length to play 5- or 6-technique defensive end.
Day's best hope is to land with a creative squad that can use him as a situational pass-rusher and special teams player early on in his career. Whoever drafts him will sell itself on the idea that he's similar to what Mike Daniels was coming out of Iowa. Daniels now plays 3-technique in a mostly one-gap nickel defense in Green Bay.
Day gave Joshua Garnett, Stanford's special left guard, some trouble. I would go as far to say that other than against maybe DeForest Buckner, Garnett hadn't lost a one-on-one battle heading into Saturday's matchup. Day is athletic but not Aaron Donald athletic. If your team needs an under tackle in a year or two and has a top-60 pick it can sit on, Day would be a great selection.
Current draft projection: Second round
Bonus: Top-Five Mock Draft
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1. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
This is the easiest pick of the draft. For maybe 25 franchises, Laremy Tunsil would be my top pick. He's the most NFL-ready offensive tackle I've seen in some time. He has length, is aggressive and has quality feet, in that order. Too often, the NFL has fallen for players with great feet and hopes to develop the rest.
He's not Eric Fisher. He's much closer to a Joe Thomas or Jonathan Ogden. He's ready to play right now, which is astonishing for a 21-year-old. Either play him at left tackle and move Taylor Lewan to right tackle or just plug him as the right bookend. Marcus Mariota needs quality edge protection since he's a late-in-the-down passer with sack-fumble issues.
2. Cleveland Browns: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
In a lot of ways, Paxton Lynch is like Johnny Manziel. After Manziel was demoted to third string, though, it's fair to say that Johnny Football's time in Cleveland is coming to a close, if it's not over already.
One thing defensive-minded coaches seem to be leaning toward is mobile quarterbacks. They know how difficult it is to stop them, and they figure forcing containment and the threat of the read option ends up taking practice time from opponents. There's a reason why Rex Ryan's starting passer in Buffalo this year has been Tyrod Taylor.
I'm not sure that Lynch's talent is worth the second overall pick. Would you pick Ryan Tannehill second overall? That's basically who he is. Still, Mike Pettine isn't going to get much more time to prove what he has been building for the Browns, and without a quarterback, his job security is bleak.
3. San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The San Diego Chargers need a lot of help. Their defense is a mess, and their offensive line is in shambles. Laremy Tunsil and Joey Bosa are my top two players in this class, and if either one is there on the board in this situation, the Chargers would run their card up as fast as possible.
Melvin Ingram is the Chargers' undersized pass-rusher, and with the addition of Bosa on the left side, they could finally balance out the defense. Bosa isn't really a speed rusher as much as he's a power rusher like Cameron Wake or Cameron Jordan. In rush situations, Bosa could kick down as a 3-4 defensive end, like Jordan did earlier in his career in New Orleans, and Jeremiah Attaochu, a 2014 second-round pick, could replace him and finally be in position to thrive on a limited basis.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
Two factors are at play here. First, Tony Romo is breaking down at the age of 35. Second, Jerry Jones doesn't like to rebuild, he likes to reload. There's not going to be a better chance for the Cowboys to snag a quarterback to replace Romo until it's too late. The last time Dallas had a top-four pick was in 1991.
Cook can run a pro-style system and flashes brilliance. We know that Jones loved Johnny Manziel in 2014, but what would have happened if Blake Bortles had not been surprisingly selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the third overall pick? It's not out of line to think that Dallas would have taken him and kept him in the oven. This selection can give the Cowboys exactly what they need: long-term stability at the most important position in the sport.
5. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi
There's nothing real special about this pick. Robert Nkemdiche is just the best player left on the board. Some will get into his hand issues and his lack of sacks, but he's a 5-technique at the next level, a two-gapping 3-4 defensive end whose job will to be to control an offensive lineman, not get after tackles.
Right now, when you look at the San Francisco 49ers, what do you see? Do they have an identity? Under Jim Harbaugh, they did. With the trifecta of Arik Armstead, Aaron Lynch and Nkemdiche, there would be three young, talented players on the line of scrimmage defensively. No team in the NFL will want to see those guys when they all hit.
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