NFL Odds Week 12: Llast-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis

The college football regular season is basically over, you had to spend the week with your in-laws, and your fantasy team is in the dumps. Nothing is going your way, but at least we can count on NFL football this Sunday.

Maybe you need money for a gym membership post-Turkey Day. Maybe you have some change sitting around the house that you can put up on games while you lounge on the couch before you have to go back to the real world. I can help you with that.

There's no better time to start getting invested in NFL gambling than right now, when we can measure teams with plenty of data and tape samples. One or two hot weeks can be flukes, and the public has already forgotten bout October's games.

We'll go over spread picks in every game this week, including the line movement. We'll also suggest some quality over-under picks, give you the weather reports for every game and tell you which injuries should impact the point spread.

Spread Picks

Gail Burton/Associated Press

As always, you can read my spread picks early on Fridays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

The spread: Buffalo @ Kansas City (-3.5)

The pick: Kansas City (-3.5)

The spread: Minnesota @ Atlanta (-2.5)

The pick: Minnesota (+2.5)

The spread: Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis (-3)

The pick: Indianapolis (-3)

The spread: St. Louis @ Cincinnati (-10)

The pick: St. Louis (+10)

The spread: Miami @ New York Jets (-4)

The pick: New York Jets (-4)

The spread: San Diego @ Jacksonville (-4)

The pick: Jacksonville (-4)

The spread: New York Giants @ Washington (+2.5)

The pick: New York Giants (-1.5)

The spread: Oakland @ Tennessee (+1.5)

The pick: Oakland (-1.5)

The spread: New Orleans @ Houston (-3)

The pick: Houston (-3)

The spread: Arizona @ San Francisco (+10.5)

The pick: San Francisco (+10.5)

The spread: Pittsburgh @ Seattle (-4)

The pick: Pittsburgh (+4)

The spread: New England @ Denver (+5.5)

The pick: Denver (+5.5)

The spread: Baltimore @ Cleveland (-3)

The pick: Baltimore (+3)

Line Movement

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Opened: Kansas City (-3.5)

Current: Kansas City (-6)

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Opened: Atlanta (-2.5)

Current: Atlanta (-2)

Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis

Opened: Indianapolis (-3)

Current: Indianapolis (-3)

St. Louis @ Cincinnati

Opened: Cincinnati (-7.5)

Current: Cincinnati (-9)

Miami @ New York Jets

Opened: New York Jets (-4.5)

Current: New York Jets (-4)

San Diego @ Jacksonville

Opened: Jacksonville (-4.5)

Current: Jacksonville (-4.5)

New York Giants @ Washington

Opened: Washington (+1.5)

Current: Washington (+2.5)

Oakland @ Tennessee

Opened: Tennessee (+2)

Current: Tennessee (+1)

New Orleans @ Houston

Opened: Houston (-3)

Current: Houston (-3)

Arizona @ San Francisco

Opened: San Francisco (+9.5)

Current: San Francisco (+10)

Pittsburgh @ Seattle

Opened: Seattle (-3.5)

Current: Seattle (-3.5)

New England @ Denver

Opened: Denver (+5.5)

Current: Denver (+2.5)

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Opened: Cleveland (PK)

Current: Cleveland (-3)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over-Under Picks

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

New Orleans @ Houston: Under 48

The New Orleans Saints have a horrible defense, but I also don't trust the Houston Texans to score. In their last three games, the totals have been 26, 16 and 41. With J.J. Watt hitting full stride, that defense looks completely different. The Texans can shut down the Saints offense, other than their backfield pass-catchers.

Two dome teams facing each other typically means a shutout is coming, but I'd be much more surprised to see a 44-41 score than a 10-7 score this week. Having two bad teams on the same field usually correlates to a sloppy, low-scoring football game.

San Diego @ Jacksonville: Over 46.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the best team in this game and should win by a touchdown or so. The San Diego defense is just not good on any level. The Chargers need to rebuild that entire franchise when they inevitably move to Los Angeles.

This is how I imagine the game flow: Jacksonville scores about 28 points, while the Chargers look abysmal but don't quit, as Philip Rivers throws San Diego a garbage score after being down two scores late in the fourth quarter. Points. Lots of points.

Pittsburgh @ Seattle: Under 46

In this one, two good teams will desperately try to win this game. Pittsburgh will pull it out in the end, but the Steelers badly need to take control of the AFC wild-card picture. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are just trying to get back into the playoff conversation.

There's no Le'Veon Bell, and Ben Roethlisberger's rarely looks healthy in his first couple of games back from injury. He looked good two weeks ago against Cleveland, but the Browns have already quit on the season. Expect a one-score game with Seattle scoring in the teens.

Weather Reports

Brennan Linsley/Associated Press

Open Stadium

Buffalo @ Kansas City

High: 38 degrees

Low: 35 degrees

Description: Showers

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: NE 7 mph

St. Louis @ Cincinnati

High: 49 degrees

Low: 37 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: NNE 8 mph

Miami @ New York Jets

High: 51 degrees

Low: 31 degrees

Description: Morning clouds/afternoon sun

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: N 8 mph

San Diego @ Jacksonville

High: 51 degrees

Low: 31 degrees

Description: Morning clouds/afternoon sun

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: N 8 mph

New York Giants @ Washington

High: 49 degrees

Low: 36 degrees

Description: Morning light rain

Precipitation: 90 percent

Wind: NNE 6 mph

Oakland @ Tennessee

High: 58 degrees

Low: 52 degrees

Description: Rain

Precipitation: 80 percent

Wind: N 6 mph

Arizona @ San Francisco

High: 59 degrees

Low: 34 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: WNW 5 mph

Pittsburgh @ Seattle

High: 43 degrees

Low: 31 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SSE 2 mph

New England @ Denver

High: 30 degrees

Low: 15 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: NE 7 mph

Baltimore @ Cleveland

High: 51 degrees

Low: 44 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: E 10 mph 

Retractable Stadium

Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis

High: 48 degrees

Low: 34 degrees

Description: Mostly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: NE 10 mph

New Orleans @ Houston

High: 61 degrees

Low: 53 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: NNW 7 mph

Dome Stadium

Minnesota @ Atlanta

All data retrieved via Weather.com's five-day forecasts.

Injury Reports

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

What a horrible Thanksgiving for Cowboys fans. Their star quarterback, who was coming off a hot performance against Miami, threw a pick-six at the coin toss and then was lost for the season with a clavicle issue. It's time for Dallas to tank.

The defense played emotionally in the absence of Tony Romo, knowing that it had to lead if Dallas wanted to be in the playoff race when he returned into the starting lineup. The dam broke against the Panthers, though. Between all of the characters in the locker room and the number of losses, it's hard to imagine this team winning any more games this year. The Cowboys still have yet to win one in 2015 without Romo.

They have already played this week, but this is the most impactful injury news of the week. We know how this story ends.

Case Keenum, QB, St. Louis

If you watched St. Louis vs. Baltimore last weekend, you know the exact moment that Case Keenum suffered a concussion. He's now going through the NFL's protocol for the injury, even though he continued to play after receiving that brutal hit against the Ravens.

If he can't play, Nick Foles is going to be the starting quarterback again. There's not a huge difference between the two passers, however, so this shouldn't change the line by even a half-point.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta

When the Atlanta Falcons were cooking, their offense was heavily backed by their stars—receiver Julio Jones and running Devonta Freeman. Matt Ryan just isn't the potentially elite quarterback we hoped he would develop into. He's not a liability, but he's nothing more than average.

Freeman will miss the game against Minnesota because of a concussion. The red-hot Vikings may beat the freezing-cold Falcons in the Georgia Dome this Sunday. Minnesota is still an underdog, which is insane. This Atlanta offense can't function the way it needs to anymore.