Cardinals vs. 49ers: What's the Game Plan for San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers limp home to Levi's Stadium to take on the red-hot Arizona Cardinals in a Week 12 NFC West division showdown.
San Francisco, now 3-7 after dropping last week's contest against the Seattle Seahawks, will be trying to find its way against Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer and the No. 1-ranked offense in the league with 336 points scored on the year.
At 8-2, the first-place Cardinals are en route to wrapping up the division title and surging into the postseason.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
On the flip side, the 49ers offense still ranks dead last despite the change at quarterback from Colin Kaepernick to Blaine Gabbert. San Francisco has just 139 total points scored.
Is there any way the 49ers can pull off the upset over the Cardinals?
If so, San Francisco will have to play a near-perfect game and catch a few breaks along the way.
Offensive Game Plan
Gabbert has done an admirable job under center in Kaepernick's stead. Over two games, San Francisco's new starter has posted an 88.9 passer rating with three touchdowns against two interceptions.
And he earned some praise from Cardinals defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, who stated, via Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee, Gabbert had a "better grip" on the offense.
Cardinals cornerback Jerraud Powers has the lowest pass-coverage grade on the team this season per Pro Football Focus (minus-7.0), so look for the 49ers offense to try and scheme a game plan where Powers is in single-man coverage matched up against wide receiver Anquan Boldin.
Powers also lines up frequently in the slot as this graphic shows, which could lead to some opportunities for inside wideouts Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington.
"CB Jerraud Powers had a 4th Qtr INT vs WAS. @kyle_odegard shows us how it came to be. [CLICK] http://t.co/pCkWkIRS9y pic.twitter.com/MeDYAyzNiV
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) October 15, 2014"
Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson (ankle) is also listed as questionable, which could open up additional opportunities for the 49ers offense if the star defensive back is unable to go.
Gabbert has found success with his tight ends, especially in the red zone. All three of Gabbert's passing touchdowns have come to tight ends this season.
Take a look at this touchdown pass from Gabbert to tight end Vance McDonald last week in Seattle:
McDonald runs a post route and finds a seam within the Seahawks secondary en route to the lone 49ers touchdown of the day.
So, perhaps, this sort of approach may help ensure San Francisco's red-zone offense converts—an absolute necessity against the high-powered Cardinals.
Running the ball will also be mandatory for the 49ers' success in Week 12.
Running back Carlos Hyde (foot) remains questionable, and the likelihood is that fellow back Shaun Draughn will get additional carries in the featured role. Draughn is averaging 3.4 yards per attempt this season and faces a Cardinals defense allowing an average of 4.0 yards per carry.
Defensive Game Plan
San Francisco's defense was embarrassed by Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls last week, as the rookie rushed for 209 yards and helped the 49ers set a franchise record for futility, eclipsing a milestone that dated back to 1993.
The 49ers run defense will now be without defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey (knee), who finds himself on injured reserve after tearing his ACL against Seattle last week. Dorsey was one of the better 49ers run-stoppers with a plus-0.5 PFF grade before the injury.
Look for San Francisco to shore up this element of its defense at home and try to limit the gains of Cardinals running back Chris Johnson, who is averaging 4.3 yards per carry on the season.
The 49ers are allowing 3.9 yards per carry at Levi's Stadium. Their Week 9 matchup against running back Devonta Freeman and the Atlanta Falcons, in which they allowed just 12 yards on 12 carries to the second-year back, is perhaps the best San Francisco's defense can be, and this unit will need to be so again versus Johnson.
But going all out against the Cardinals ground game opens up opportunities for Palmer and the vaunted Arizona aerial attack. Per PFF, Palmer is the highest-ranked quarterback this season with a plus-36.6 grade on the season.
With weapons like wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, along with a solid offensive line, Palmer has been able to carve up the competition seemingly all season.
The only plausible way to slow down Palmer will be the application of pressure. According to PFF, Palmer's completion percentage drops down to 56.7 when pressured and his quarterback rating drops from the 100s to 90.4.
| No Pressure | 68.8 | 19/4 | 0 | 120.5 |
| Under Pressure | 56.7 | 8/5 | 16 | 90.4 |
| When Not Blitzed | 64.0 | 16/4 | 8 | 109.5 |
| When Blitzed | 64.1 | 11/5 | 8 | 107.1 |
| All Plays | 64.0 | 27/9 | 16 | 108.6 |
Arizona has allowed just 16 sacks on the season, so, simply stated, generating a pass rush may not be easy for San Francisco's defense.
Palmer was sacked just once and hit twice during the Cardinals' 34-31 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. And the results speak for themselves.
Can the 49ers young secondary contain Palmer and the passing game while the front seven creates enough pressure and takes away the rushing attack?
Doing so will be essential if San Francisco hopes to have any shot at their fourth win.
Key Players and Matchups
Linebacker Aaron Lynch leads the 49ers with 6.5 sacks on the season, and pressuring Palmer will be paramount to the defense's success.
Cardinals right tackle Bobby Massie has been the biggest liability along Arizona's offensive line and has a minus-16.6 PFF grade, having allowed three sacks, five quarterback hits and 30 quarterback hurries this season. Look for Lynch to line up opposite Massie in these pass-rushing situations.
Palmer will look to get the ball out to his favorite receiver Fitzgerald, who is leading the team with 926 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
The responsibility for covering him will frequently fall on defensive back Jimmie Ward, so look for that matchup to be a prime factor.
Can San Francisco's run defense look more like the Week 9 version instead of what was on display versus Seattle?
Gabbert will be tested against a solid Cardinals secondary Sunday, similarly to what he saw in Week 11. The last time these two teams met, Mathieu posted two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown. Gabbert will look to avoid the kind of mistakes made by Kaepernick in that game.
Powers against the 49ers receivers will also be a matchup to watch, as will San Francisco's tight ends in the red zone.
But to ensure the offense gets going, the 49ers will need to get production out of their own beleaguered offensive line—a unit that has a minus-11.3 PFF grade in pass protection and a minus-53.1 in run blocking.
Prediction
Even if the 49ers have some adequate offensive production and the defense doesn't allow Johnson and/or Palmer to carve through it, San Francisco will still need a near-perfect effort to come away with a Week 12 win.
The Cardinals are riding a four-game winning streak and are coming off victories over Seattle and Cincinnati—contests in which Arizona scored 39 and 34 points, respectively.
Merely slowing down the Cardinals offense likely won't be enough, especially considering the 49ers' own offensive woes.
San Francisco will need to generate some turnovers and, somehow, come away with a win in the critical time-of-possession battle.
Putting all of these factors into the 49ers' favor doesn't seem likely. Arizona is playing as good as anyone in the NFL right now, while San Francisco is bottoming out.
Look for the Cardinals to come away with a 28-10 victory, and for the 49ers to drop to 3-8 on the season.
All statistics, injury reports, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist covering the San Francisco 49ers for Bleacher Report. Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
