Borussia Dortmund's Europa League Challenge in Jeopardy After Krasnodar Defeat

Borussia Dortmund lost for only the third time in a competitive match this season, falling to Krasnodar, 1-0, in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday.

At first blush, losing in Russia didn't seem to be that big a deal; Dortmund were already through to the next round, and with a home game against PAOK on Matchday 6, they would have an opportunity to win Group C.

Taking a closer look at the outcome of the game, however, reveals why the Black and Yellows might come to rue the day they lost at Kuban Stadium. 

Thanks to Dortmund's failure to find the net, Krasnodar have won the head-to-head, the first criterion to separate teams that are level on points after the final matchday of the group phase.

The southern Russians have the golden opportunity to win the group with a win at Qabala FK. Considering the Azerbaijanis have so far only managed two points—both against PAOK—it would be somewhat miraculous for them to snatch a point or even a win at home to Krasnodar on Dec. 10.

KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/Getty Images

If everything goes the way one would have to expect it will, Dortmund will finish the group stage in second place. That means they could face one of the 12 group winners from the Europa League or one of the four best third-place teams from the Champions League in the round of 32.

As it stands after five matchdays, the Black and Yellows could face teams like Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Napoli, Lazio or Athetic Bilbao—all leading their Europa League groups—while Arsenal, Valencia and one of Porto or Chelsea seem like the biggest hurdles that could move down from the Champions League. 

We discussed Dortmund's status as one of the favourites to win the Europa League recently, but that is now in jeopardy as the luck of the draw comes into focus. 

Considering they were easily the better team against Krasnodar, that is disappointing.

Perhaps most frustrating, however, is no one can be blamed for the loss. Mats Hummels gave the decisive penalty away inside the first minute of the game, but he was the best player on the pitch the rest of the way.

It's almost cruel Dortmund's failing to score a goal for the first time all season might lead to a very difficult path to the Europa League title. 

Adrian Ramos didn't find the net, but he was desperately unlucky not to, hitting the bar and having two headers saved very well by the opposing goalkeeper, Andriy Dykan. Since Henrikh Mkhitaryan also hit the woodwork—as did Krasnodar's Charles Kabore trying to defend his own goal—one can't even say Dortmund were too wasteful in attack.

Sven Bender, again playing in the heart of defence, missed what amounted to a sitter—he was unmarked after a corner—moments before intermission, but that's the only chance they really squandered.

"

Video: Adrian Ramos hits the bar against Krasnodar #bvb https://t.co/CJQX3Z6N1r

— 1909stuff (@1909stufff) November 26, 2015"

Dortmund head coach Thomas Tuchel knew he couldn't blame his team's effort for the loss, saying after the game, per the club's website: 

"

We put in a very, very good performance from the second to the 94th minute, worked hard at counter-pressing and winning the ball back. We succeeded in completely dominating Krasnodar, found a lot of solutions and created a lot of shots on goal. We would have completely deserved it if we had won this match.

"

Sporting director Michael Zorc was slightly more critical, lamenting a lack of coolness in decisive moments in the two consecutive losses to Hamburg and Krasnodar: "We're just not being very effective at the moment. We're not taking our chances. That's the reason we've lost both matches."

"

xG map for Krasnodar-Dortmund. BVB had a bunch of chances to get the result they needed to seal the group. pic.twitter.com/hXvwWbWtPx

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) November 27, 2015"

Tuchel also called the result paradoxical in his post-game press conference, which might be the best way to describe Dortmund's evening.

It was an entirely unnecessary defeat in which the visitors played fairly well, especially considering the precautionary absences of Marco Reus and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, while playmaker Shinji Kagawa was rested because of the toll the November international break with Japan took on his body.

But it was also a defeat Dortmund might very well end up regretting come 2016. Their Europa League challenge possibly became much, much harder.

Lars is a featured columnist writing on Borussia Dortmund. He also writes for Yellowwallpod.com. You can follow him on Twitter.