Predicting the Biggest Storylines of the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Offseason
The 2015 Sprint Cup season just ended. So where do we go from here?
We start looking ahead to the 2016 season, of course.
There are easily well over a dozen storylines we could look at, maybe even closer to two dozen.
But for this exercise, we look at the top 10 storylines we expect in 2016 as we settle in for a long, nearly three-month offseason.
10. Low Downforce Package: Will It Be Everything NASCAR Hopes It to Be?
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After several tests at races during the 2015 regular season, the highly vaunted low downforce package will go into full implementation in 2016.
In theory, the lower the down force, the more control drivers will have over their race cars. As a result, it’s expected we’ll see closer and more competitive racing.
I have yet to find a driver who doesn’t like the new package. And when you get all drivers to agree on something, it’s going to be as good as NASCAR, drivers and teams hope for.
9. Sibling Rivalry: Will Kurt Busch Look to Steal Some of Kyle's Spotlight?
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Kurt Busch started out the 2015 season in a rough way, being suspended for the first three races for domestic-violence allegations.
But as the season went on, Busch began to get his old groove back, ending 2015 with two wins and 21 top-10 finishes.
Could Busch be primed for a big performance explosion in 2016? He’s been getting increasingly stronger the last few years.
And with younger brother Kyle being the defending Sprint Cup champ, might it be Kurt’s time to tell lil bro, “Anything you can do, I can do better”?
8. Will Brad Keselowski Bounce Back from a Less-Than-Stellar 2015?
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Let’s face it, Brad Keselowski did not have a typical Brad season in 2015. In fact, this past season was very similar to the year Keselowski had following his championship season in 2012.
Teammate Joey Logano stole the show more times than not in 2015 with a series-high six wins, including a triumph in the season-opening Daytona 500.
If you look at Keselowski’s record over the last several years, typically a mediocre season (like 2015) is followed by a great year (like 2012 and 2014). Keselowski is one of a few drivers, like Kurt Busch, who could be poised for a big season in 2016.
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7. Will Martin Truex Jr. Be Able to Replicate His Career-Best Season of 2015?
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Martin Truex Jr. and his No. 78 Furniture Row Racing were like the "Little Engine That Could," riding the track of success all the way to the Championship 4 round at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
But can Truex do the same—if not better—in 2016? I admit, I have my concerns (note, I didn’t say doubts).
First, Furniture Row is switching from Chevrolet bodies and engines to Toyota in 2016. There is going to be a learning curve, as well as a learning phase on how to handle different parts.
There’s also the integration with Joe Gibbs Racing and developing a communication program where everyone at FRR and JGR wind up being on the same page.
I have high hopes for FRR and Truex picking up where they left off, but if you think they had great luck in 2015, they’re going to need as much if not more in 2016.
6. How Will Chase Elliott’s Rookie Season in Place of the Retired Jeff Gordon Go
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The Jeff Gordon era is over. Man, that’s weird to write that. It’s still hard to accept that Gordon won’t be in the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet in 2016 for his 24th consecutive season.
Instead, Chase Elliott, the son of NASCAR Hall of Famer Bill Elliott, will become the new occupant of the No. 24. While the younger Elliott has shown he has great talent, there’s still the fact that 2016 will be his first full Sprint Cup season.
I’m keeping expectations for Elliott reasonable, rather than outlandish and out of touch. If he finishes in the top 20 at season’s end, that will be a great start. Anything better than that will be a bonus.
Elliott is going to need time to grow into the type of Sprint Cup racer that team owner Rick Hendrick and others envision. So for now, let’s cut him some slack and wish him well.
5. What Final Season Will Tony Stewart Have – a Comeback or Another Rough Year?
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We just finished giving Jeff Gordon the big sendoff, and now we’ll spend 2016 saying goodbye to yet another legendary driver, Tony Stewart, who will retire at the end of next season.
Stewart has struggled terribly since 2013. He’s a shadow of the same driver who has won nearly 50 Sprint Cup races and three championships.
But this is NASCAR, and like baseball, hope springs eternal. It would be great to see Stewart not only make the Chase for the first time sine 2012, but also really show some of the old Smoke that we came to know and love so well.
Last weekend at Homestead, Stewart promised there would be significant changes within his team, and he’s already started, jettisoning crew chief Chad Johnston, who will sit atop Kyle Larson’s pit box in 2016.
There likely will be several more changes to come (Motorsport.com's Lee Spencer reported Daniel Knost is already out as Danica Patrick’s crew chief), so if Stewart is going to go out, he’s going to go out on his own terms and with as high a finish as he possibly can.
4. Will Jimmie Johnson Come Back with a Vengeance to Win a 7th Sprint Cup Crown?
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Sure, Jimmie Johnson saw his hopes for a seventh career Sprint Cup championship come to a screeching halt in the final race of the first round of the Chase at Dover.
But after a few races of being stunned at what happened, Johnson went back to the JJ of old and actually had a strong second half of the Chase—even though he was no longer part of it.
His win at Texas was vintage Johnson and showed that he hasn’t lost anything. And let’s not forget, even though he was eliminated in the first round of the Chase, Johnson still won five races in 2015.
If history is any indication, consider this: After Johnson won his first five championships, he went two more seasons before his sixth title happened.
That sixth title came in 2013. He’s now had two non-championship seasons. Maybe it’s time for the law of averages to once again lead to another title in 2016.
If so, Johnson will finally achieve his goal of tying NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt for most championships won by a driver (seven each).
3. Could 2016 Finally Be Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Year to Win the Championship?
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Every year since 2000, Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans have asked themselves, “Is this THE year?” As in will Junior finally win his first career Sprint Cup championship?
He came close in 2014 and 2015. It’s almost as if he was knocking on the door, waiting for it to open—when it never did.
But with three first-time Sprint Cup champions in the last four seasons—Brad Keselowski in 2012, Kevin Harvick in 2014 and Kyle Busch in 2015—could it finally be Earnhardt’s turn to join that club?
Earnhardt worked well in his first year with crew chief Greg Ives. There was definitely improvement in their communication and the way they related to each other as the season went along.
Come 2016, maybe, just maybe, it just may finally be Junior’s year.
2. Can Joey Logano Pick Up in 2016 Where He Left Off in 2015?
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If Joey Logano had the Chase to do all over again—particularly his run-ins with Matt Kenseth—would he have done anything different if it meant he would have advanced to the final round and potentially won the championship?
There’s no question Logano is talented. His breakthrough season in 2015 more than proved that, from his win in the season-opening Daytona 500, to his three consecutive wins in Round 2 of the Chase and his series-high six wins overall.
Logano has to realize he’s not the late Dale Earnhardt Sr.; he can’t get away with some of the things The Intimidator did in his career. It may have been Kenseth this season, but who will it potentially be next season?
If Logano has learned some valuable lessons from this past season, especially with the way it turned out—and I hope he has—it not only will hopefully make him a better driver, but more importantly, it will make him a better person as well.
1. Can Kyle Busch Win Two Championships in a Row?
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For years, it was the same old refrain about Kyle Busch: great driver but always falls short for the championship.
Finally, after a life-changing year that began with potentially career-ending injuries, to the birth of his son, to the noticeable change in overall maturity, Busch earned that elusive first Sprint Cup crown.
There’s an old NASCAR axiom that says the first championship is always the hardest to win. If that is truly the case, winning a second championship—and potentially several more after that—could help elevate Busch onto the same plain as some of NASCAR’s greatest drivers ever.
Remember, he’s only 30 years old. If he drives for 15 more seasons, he potentially could overtake some of those greats—and put himself into a category of greatness at the same time.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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