Playing Stock Up, Stock Down with Top 2016 NBA Draft Prospects
It's only been two weeks, but that's ultimately been enough for some 2016 NBA draft prospects to make their early impressions.
We've even seen a few unexpected names become must-follows after surprise breakout starts.
On the down side, there have been a few high-profile players who've underwhelmed early relative to expectations.
We took stock of the top NBA prospects, as well as a handful who've seemingly emerged into the first-round conversation.
Ben Simmons (LSU, SF/PF)
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Stock Report: Up
Two early-season losses shouldn't dent Ben Simmons' stock. His unique versatility has just been too appealing. It was on display throughout Monday night against Marquette, when he finished with 21 points, 20 rebounds and seven assists. And though he only scored four points against N.C. State on Tuesday, he picked apart the Wolfpack defense as a passer (10 assists) and dominated its front line on the glass (16 boards).
Simmons has his flaws—he hasn't made a jumper all season and rarely even looks at the hoop outside the paint. But between his role as the team's facilitator and the fact he's so tough attacking the basket, it's difficult to dock Simmons this early for his limited perimeter scoring.
So far, we've consistently seen him convert defensive rebounds and quick outlets into easy buckets off coast-to-coast takes before defenses could set. And he's been tremendous around the basket, where he's finishing with both hands and averaging 14.8 boards per game.
Simmons has also dished out dozens of gorgeous dimes (6.2 assists), whether they've been in transition, in the drive-and-kick game or as a standstill quarterback behind the arc.
At some point, his shooting stroke will come into question, but I just don't see it becoming a concern that causes teams to drop him on their boards.
Unless Kentucky's Skal Labissiere can pull a Karl-Anthony Towns and take a major mid-year step, Simmons will remain our No. 1 overall favorite.
Brandon Ingram (Duke, SF)
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Stock Report: Down
It seemed possible or even likely Brandon Ingram would emerge as one of Duke's primary go-to options. And that just hasn't been the case through five games. Ingram was a non-factor in Duke's heavily scouted loss to Kentucky last Tuesday, when he finished with four points (1-of-6 shooting) and four turnovers.
And he didn't do much to bounce back against VCU or Georgetown, having combined to hit 4-of-14 shots without making any real notable impact.
We're not going to completely write off Ingram as a prospect, considering he just turned 18 years old this summer and still weighs around 190 pounds. His long-term potential, which is fueled by 6'9" size, a 7'3" wingspan, athleticism and face-up scoring ability, remains intact.
But early on, he's looked a lot more like a project who shouldn't be counted on for consistent production.
Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, PF/C)
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Stock Report: Steady
Just as most would have predicted, early on, we've seen glimpses of Skal Labissiere's NBA potential mixed with moments that highlight lack of a polish.
He looked unstoppable against a helpless NJIT team, putting up 26 points while showcasing mid-range touch and advanced shot-making ability. Labissiere put on a post-scoring clinic with over-the-shoulder jumpers, fadeaways, turnarounds and hook shots using either hand.
Three days later, he fouled out in three minutes against Duke. A few of the calls were questionable, but it was still somewhat of a wasted opportunity to make an impression with scouts from all 30 teams likely watching.
Still, nothing has changed regarding Labissiere's long-term potential, which could be enticing enough to eventually intrigue the future lottery winner. But we're not talking about a prospect who's going to dominate night after night. I'd expect a Karl-Anthony Towns-like trajectory in terms of his slow but gradual rise.
Jakob Poeltl (Utah, C)
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Stock Report: Up
Jakob Poeltl suddenly looks like a different big man from the one we saw last year. He's averaging a mind-blowing 20.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks on a staggering 67.3 percent shooting through five games.
To put it in perspective, Poeltl hit the 20-point mark just once as a freshman, and it came against North Dakota last November.
He's fresh off a 32-point, (on 10-of-12 shooting), 11-rebound eruption against Temple on Sunday.
Poeltl seems to be playing with a whole new level of confidence, having emerged as a go-to option for Utah in the post, where he's flashed righty jump hooks, lefty finishes, up-and-under moves and more fancy footwork.
He's even hit 34-of-48 free throws after making a disastrous 44.4 percent of them in 2014-15.
Last year, Poeltl ultimately found the first-round radar thanks to his 7'0" size, athleticism, mobility, rim protection and overall interior presence. But the offense he's added this season helps raise his draft ceiling to a higher tier.
Jamal Murray (Kentucky, PG/SG)
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Stock Report: Steady
Jamal Murray has a had few quiet outings, but with so many weapons and ball-handlers at Kentucky, he's going to have games like Friday's against Wright State, when he finished 1-of-4 shooting in 34 minutes.
More often than not, we should be able to expect performances like the one he gave for scouts in Kentucky's win over Duke. Murray went for 16 points, five assists and five rebounds in a game where Skal Labissiere was limited to 13 minutes with foul trouble.
Murray is going to create a ton of buzz for his ability to generate offense off ball screens. He's already a nightmare to contain in pick-and-roll situations, where he can freeze the defense with hesitation and either set the table for a teammate, attack the basket or pull up for a jumper.
And though he hasn't even shot the ball well (6-of-21 from three), based on everything we've seen over the past year, whether it was at the Nike Hoop Summit or Pan American Games, all signs point to Murray eventually getting hot.
Unfortunately, we won't get to see Murray run the show—sophomore Tyler Ulis is just too good at it. But as long as Murray continues to flash some playmaking in spurts, NBA teams should end up viewing him as a 6'5" scoring point guard.
Jaylen Brown (California, SF)
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Stock Report: Steady
Jaylen Brown has looked exactly how we expected him to—physically ready to compete and score.
He's put up at least 14 points in each of California's first four games, and he's getting to the line 12.9 times per 40 minutes.
Defenses are ultimately having a tough time staying in front of Brown, who combines quickness with agility and power.
He's also double-doubled in consecutive games (East Carolina, Sam Houston) and is averaging 7.3 rebounds in 24 minutes.
Brown is ultimately manning the small-ball 4 spot early on. Though he projects as an NBA wing, he has the strength to play with college power forwards and the foot speed to beat them.
He's only made six of 23 shots away from the rim, per Hoop-Math.com, including three of 15 from three. Eventually, scouts will begin to ask about his perimeter game, but for now, it's too early to get concerned.
Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame, PG)
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Stock Report: Up
It's come against low-level competition, but Demetrius Jackson has been just about perfect for Notre Dame through three early games.
Jackson, who's 6'1" but strong with physical and athletic similarities to Eric Bledsoe, is shooting 60 percent from the floor and averaging 20.7 points per game. He's scoring from all three levels, having made 11 shots at the rim, seven on two-point jumpers and six of 15 (40 percent) from three, per Hoop-Math.com.
And with scouts likely focused on Jackson's decision-making and playmaking as the Irish full-time point guard (last year, it was Jerian Grant), he's been ridiculously efficient, having racked up 15 assists to just four turnovers despite a monster 33.6 percent usage rate, per Sports-Reference.com.
These numbers aren't sustainable, but the breakout junior year many were hoping for appears to be on schedule.
Malik Newman (Mississippi State, PG/SG)
8 of 15
Stock Report: Down
It's been a rough start for both Mississippi State and Malik Newman, who's shooting 40 percent from the floor through four games—three of which have been losses (Southern, Miami, Texas Tech).
Playing off the ball, Newman has ultimately struggled to find good shots within Mississippi State's offense. Seven of his 11.3 field-goal attempts per game have come on threes so far (32.1 percent from three). And he's averaging 2.8 turnovers to 2.3 assists.
Newman has the ability to knock down every shot in the book, as well as the confidence to catch fire and score in bunches. But at just 6'3"—small for an NBA 2-guard—scouts will want to see more playmaking, as well as more consistent shot-making.
Hopefully, coach Ben Howland allows Newman to do a bit more creating on the ball.
Dwayne Bacon (Florida State, SG)
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Stock Report: Up
Dwayne Bacon is second among freshmen in scoring after five games, averaging 20.6 points on 57.8 percent shooting.
He already looked the part of an NBA 2-guard coming in with 6'6" size, smooth athleticism and a perimeter game. The big numbers early on should only confirm the visible talent as worth tracking.
Bacon's scoring attack has looked sharp, from his driving and finishing (12-of-15 at the rim) to his mid-range (11-of-21 on two-point jumpers) and three-point shooting (8-of-17), according to Hoop-Math.com.
Florida State hasn't played anyone of substance, and chances are, Bacon will eventually cool off from outside. But he's clearly a prospect to follow, particularly once conference play arrives.
Henry Ellenson (Marquette, PF)
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Stock Report: Steady
The execution hasn't been perfect (39.1 percent field-goal mark), but it also hasn't masked Henry Ellenson's skill level and stretch-4 potential.
He's scored at least 16 points in four of five games. Ellenson put up a dud in a blowout loss to Iowa on Thursday before bouncing back with 16 points and 11 boards in a strong win against Ben Simmons and LSU Monday night.
Ellenson has ultimately established himself as a tough cover facing up in the short corner, where he can rise and fire for a jumper, put the ball on the floor or separate into over-the-shoulder jump hooks.
And though he doesn't look ready to shoot with any real consistency, he's hit four threes early on.
Ellenson has also been a force under the boards, averaging 9.8 rebounds.
Without great bounce or quickness, he hasn't provided much rim protection. But expect the double-doubles to start piling up for Ellenson, whose footwork, handle and touch highlight an appealing inside-out package.
Kris Dunn (Providence, PG)
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Stock Report: Steady
Kris Dunn's numbers have been ridiculous early, and that isn't likely to change much over the course of the year, given his track record, talent and Providence's light schedule.
He's averaging 18.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 5.3 steals in wins against Harvard, Illinois, Brown and NJIT. Just as we saw last year, Dunn is simply tearing apart opponents with quickness, playmaking and scoring ability in the paint.
Incredible foot speed, length and anticipation have also continued translating to relentless defensive pressure—a big part of his sales pitch to the pros.
But the most important numbers so far have been his 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes and 10 percent turnover percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.
Nobody in the country coughed it up more than Dunn a year ago. Scouts already know he can create, pass and put points on the board. From an individual development standpoint, Dunn should have returned with two goals in mind: taking better care of the ball and improving his shooting percentages.
He's only 4-of-14 from three, so that will be something to monitor moving forward. But after four games, we're still in wait-and-see mode.
Grayson Allen, (Duke, SG)
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Stock Report: Up
Grayson Allen erupted for a combined 54 points during Duke's first two games against Siena and Bryant. But after shooting 2-of-11 in a loss to Kentucky Tuesday night, when Allen struggled against length inside and just couldn't find his jumper around the perimeter, the early production seemed flukey.
It doesn't two games later—Allen bounced back to drop 30 points on VCU and 32 on Georgetown in two tremendous offensive performances.
He's been on fire from downtown, having hit 15 of his first 28 attempts (53.6 percent). And with a quick first step and explosive last one, he's taken 39 free throws (made 35) through five games.
Allen is even averaging 3.2 assists, showing some promise as a ball-screen playmaker.
He isn't overly big or long, but among his super athleticism, competitiveness, shot-making ability and handle, it's become impossible not to consider his NBA potential.
Malik Pope (San Diego State, SF)
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Stock Report: Down
Malik Pope hasn't been able to capitalize on the extra touches and playing time early on. In fact, they may have even exposed his underdeveloped offensive game. He's struggling to create good looks for himself, having made just 11 of 38 (28.9 percent) shots from the floor.
Pope's jumper hasn't done him any favors either—he's just 4-of-17 from three.
To earn first-round consideration, he'll have to relocate his shooting stroke, given his clear limitations as a playmaker. Pope doesn't have an assist in 87 minutes this season.
Coach Steve Fisher has already begun to reduce the sophomore's minutes over San Diego State's last two games. It's ultimately been a rough start for both Pope and the 2-3 Aztecs.
Denzel Valentine (Michigan, SG)
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Stock Report: Up
Denzel Valentine opened eyes by triple-doubling against Kansas last Tuesday. Since 2009, he's the only college player to record at least 25 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds in a game, according to Sports-Reference.com
Valentine, who's filled up four consecutive box scores to start the season (averaging 15.3 points, 9.0 boards and 9.8 assists), has sold his versatility quite well.
At 6'5", he's emerged as Michigan State's primary playmaker and decision-maker. Though not the most explosive or athletic, NBA teams could certainly value Valentine's convincing passing and shooting skills.
Coming into the season, he'd been mostly viewed as a fringe NBA draft pick. Now, assuming Valentine continues to produce in a lead-guard role, it's not crazy to think a playoff team might consider the 22-year-old senior as a late first-round option.
Marquese Chriss (Washington, SF/PF)
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Stock Report: Up
Marquese Chriss remains one of the more under-the-radar freshmen in the country, but that will change if the big early-season numbers continue.
He's averaging 18.7 points on 61.8 percent shooting through three games.
Chriss immediately stands out under the NBA lens thanks to his 6'9" size, length and bounce at the rim. He's shown he can make tough shots around the key (10-of-16 on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com) and pick up easy buckets off dump downs and transition opportunities.
Though clearly raw in terms of his ability to create, Chriss has undoubtedly emerged as a must-watch project on the nightly scouting schedule.
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