Revised Expectations for AC Milan for 2015/16 Serie a Season

It’s been a long time since AC Milan were Scudetto material. Yet, after two seasons of numbing mid-table finishes and underachievement, the club finally looked set for a tilt at Serie A’s top three this season.

That was the initial aim, as confirmed by Sinisa Mihajlovic when speaking to reporters in pre-season (h/t Reuters). After several months of football, though, that aim should be altered. 

Currently, Milan sit seventh in the table, eight points away from their targeted league position. And, after 13 fixtures, it’s fair to suggest that enough time has passed for the club to reconsider its expectations for this season. In doing so, however, several things must be taken into account.

Firstly, there has been an improvement in recent weeks. Milan have been progressing on an upward—albeit gradual—trajectory following a five-match unbeaten run.

That streak began and ended in Turin, with a draw against Torino and a defeat to Juventus respectively. Between those trips, Milan beat Sassuolo, Chievo and—most impressively—Lazio, recording two clean sheets in the process.

Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images

Milan’s defensive record is one of the rocks upon which that progress was built. Sixteen-year-old goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has been unflappable, while Alessio Romagnoli is maturing into an ever-more influential presence at the heart of the back four.

The defensive improvement and subsequent increasingly positive results have moved Milan from the bottom half of the table to the fringe of the European places.

Last Saturday’s 1-0 away loss to Juventus was the team’s first defeat in over a month, but upcoming fixtures provide enough hope for a continuation of the renewal on display before the past weekend.

Milan welcome Mihajlovic’s old club Sampdoria to the San Siro this coming Saturday night in a match that could prove tough.

The Blucerchiati recently appointed Vincenzo Montella, who was a prolific goalscorer for the club as a player. Not only that, but Montella has a handy coaching track record too; in each of his three years with Fiorentina, he led them to fourth place and regularly navigated them to the latter stages of domestic and European cup competitions.

Despite Montella’s quality and suitability, he will have had less than a fortnight to work with his new squad. Frankly, Sampdoria are in a vulnerable state and Milan should feel confident of defeating them on their own territory as a result.

Following a midweek trip to face Serie B side Crotone in the Coppa Italia, Milan will then take on newly-promoted Carpi, who are currently bottom of the table with just one win and six points.

A win there would set Milan up nicely for a home game with Verona, who are joint bottom with Carpi, on the same amount of points, but with zero wins from 13 games. Milan then travel to play another new Serie A entrant in Frosinone before the winter break commences.

Looking at the four fixtures standing between Milan and the mid-season break, there is a genuine opportunity for them to accumulate four more vital wins. This would give them a decent record of 10 wins, two draws and five defeats with 32 points in total going into the second half of the season.

In addition, following on from those four fixtures, the transfer window is set to re-open in January.

Milan have been linked to multiple players throughout this year and, while Mihajlovic continues to implement his ideas and the team continues to assimilate, the possibility of adding new players in January should not be ignored out of hand.

While Alex has emerged ahead of Cristian Zapata and Philippe Mexes as the best option to partner Romagnoli in the centre of defence, he can be improved on.

Massimo Pinca/Associated Press

At the age of 33, the Brazilian isn’t getting any younger, is clunky in possession and lacking in pace on the turn. As such a younger, faster centre-back should be a priority for Milan if they are looking to reinforce their defensive line.

Signing individual talent isn’t necessarily the best way to resolve issues with the collective structure and performance of the team, but it is a viable option worth considering.

If Milan did win their next four games, bringing in one defender in January could act as a way of continuing to fuel competition for places, preventing any possible complacency on the back of consecutive victories.

Ultimately, however, as much as Mihajlovic and Milan do internally over the coming months, there is only so much impact their work on the training ground, on the pitch and in the transfer market can have.

External factors will also affect where Milan finish this season, primarily the performances and results of other clubs with designs on a top-three spot.

This season’s Scudetto race is shaping up to be the most open in years. At present, Inter sit atop the table on 30 points, though only three points separate them from fourth-placed Roma. Between these two are Napoli and Fiorentina, who both have 28 points.

There are four realistic contenders for the title, with reigning champions Juventus creeping up the table in a foreboding fashion. For Milan to break into the top three, at least three of the aforementioned challengers will have to be supplanted.

That is an extremely difficult task and a hard one to envisage, especially given the solidity of Inter, the depth and experience of Juventus and the quality evidenced by Napoli, Fiorentina and Roma throughout this season so far.

After Milan’s recent 0-0 draw at home to Atalanta, Mihajlovic sounded resolute when discussing the club’s expectations.

He told Sky Sport Italia (h/t Football Italia): "This is a Milan with the quality to target our objective, which is the top three. It seems a bit premature to talk about targets and ambitions when we’re 12 rounds in."

While seemingly remaining optimistic about their chances of achieving the top-three finish set out at the start of this season, it would be fair and realistic for Mihajlovic and Milan to revise the aim in light of the way Serie A has panned out after 13 rounds of fixtures.

As it stands, Milan are hovering just below a top-six position. Finishing within the top six is an achievable goal and, while it wouldn’t secure the financial riches and restored prestige of Champions League football, it would usher in a return to continental competition by way of the Europa League.

As well as enabling the club to return to European football after several years without it, a top-six finish would also represent genuine improvement domestically.

Milan finished 10th last season. The season before they finished eighth. To achieve a top-six position would be a step up and could be viewed as the first tangible step in a long-term rebuilding process.

Putting additional pressure on Mihajlovic and his players to finish in the top three will not be conducive to success at this stage. The team simply does not appear truly capable of competing with the likes of Inter, Napoli, Fiorentina, Roma and Juventus. They should revise their expectations accordingly.

Finishing within the top six is a step forward and, even if it is a smaller one than initially hoped for upon Mihajlovic’s appointment in the summer, it would still be a step in the right direction—something Milan haven’t had for years.