Top Scenarios for CFB Playoff Contenders Heading into Rivalry Week
The road to the College Football Playoff isn't the same for every contender.
While some top teams seem to have a straight shot at the final four this season, others are locked into a dead heat with each other—a race that could come down to a photo finish, so to speak.
Then there are the teams in the back of the pack that aren't eliminated just yet, but they need some big-time boosts down the stretch and maybe a crash or two in front of them.
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As we head into rivalry weekend, it's time to pull out the road maps and outline each contender's journey to the College Football Playoff. These teams have been put into several tiers, based on projected rankings, remaining opponents and overall resumes.
Here's where the top undefeated and one-loss teams from the Power Five conferences stand in the playoff picture heading into the final week of the regular season.
Win and they're in
Clemson
As the higher ranked of the undefeated teams heading into Week 12, Clemson's grip on the No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff committee rankings should have tightened with Ohio State and Oklahoma State's losses Saturday.
Clemson closes out its regular season with a road matchup against rival South Carolina, which has an interim head coach and is coming off a loss to FCS opponent The Citadel. After taking care of business in Columbia, the Tigers will face North Carolina, currently a one-loss team, in the ACC Championship Game.
This scenario is as straightforward as it comes. If the nation's top-ranked team wins out and grabs its conference title, it would be a lock for the playoff and is almost guaranteed the coveted No. 1 seed.
Alabama
Alabama's early home loss to Ole Miss has been ancient history for the playoff committee this season. The Tide were ranked higher than a pair of undefeated teams before this past weekend's action, and they'll stay in the final four with a couple more wins.
Head coach Nick Saban's team visits 6-5 rival Auburn this weekend, and it's a solid 13- to 14-point road favorite for the matchup against the up-and-down Tigers, per Odds Shark. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, Alabama would also be favored by double digits against Florida in the SEC Championship Game a week later.
Alabama has been a dominant, championship-caliber force—especially on defense—for most of its games since losing to the Rebels back in September. The Tide's strength of schedule, which is ranked No. 8 by Jeff Sagarin, should have them rolling into the playoff with two more wins.
Iowa
It's late November, and the Iowa Hawkeyes are one of two undefeated teams in college football. And at this point in the season, we're now looking at Iowa as a team that controls its own playoff destiny. A hypothetical win in the Big Ten Championship Game over Ohio State would have put Iowa in the top four. Now, the Hawkeyes will most likely have that spot already heading into rivalry weekend.
Iowa has a quicker turnaround this week, as it faces Nebraska on Friday. The Huskers are coming off a bye week and back-to-back victories over Michigan State and Rutgers, and they'll also have home-field advantage in this one.
Still, Iowa is currently favored by three points, per Odds Shark, and will have plenty of momentum heading into Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game with another victory. With only two undefeated teams left, there's no way Iowa is out if it takes care of business at Nebraska and takes home the conference title next week.
Michigan State
Michigan State jumped right back into the thick of the playoff race this weekend with a road upset over Ohio State. If the Spartans defeat Penn State at home this weekend, they're headed to the Big Ten Championship Game to face Iowa in what should be a play-in game.
Sure, the controversial loss at 5-6 Nebraska isn't as "good" as Notre Dame's loss at undefeated Clemson, but Sparty still grabbed plenty of playoff projections this weekend. Its resume continues to strengthen with the continued rise of Oregon and road victories over both Michigan and Ohio State. A win over undefeated Iowa should catapult the Spartans into the top four.
Of course, losses for any other contender would help Michigan State's case, but it doesn't desperately need those. After this past weekend's chaos, Michigan State appears to be in control of its own destiny, just like the Tigers, Tide and Hawkeyes.
The great debate
Notre Dame
According to the projected playoff rankings from Bleacher Report's Ed Feng, Notre Dame should move up from No. 4 to No. 3 on Tuesday night after Ohio State's loss to Michigan State. The committee has been in favor of Notre Dame's full body of work from the first set of rankings—no one has a better loss than the Irish—and a win against Stanford would provide another boost to that resume.
But would Notre Dame be completely locked in if it's victorious on the Farm this weekend? If Iowa wins the Big Ten with an undefeated record, there's a great chance the Irish get jumped by the Hawkeyes, who already moved ahead in the AP poll. Michigan State could snatch that No. 3 spot as well if it wins out.
Could Oklahoma jump the Irish as early as this week? It's possible. Oklahoma held off a banged-up, one-loss TCU team one week after knocking off Baylor on the road, and Notre Dame failed to impress against Boston College. The best playoff scenario for Notre Dame is a win at Stanford and an Oklahoma loss in Bedlam this weekend. If that happens, it'll be hard to lodge ND out of the top four.
Oklahoma
How the committee positions the one-loss brigade of Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan State on Tuesday night will be important moving forward. While the Spartans have two more possible wins left, Oklahoma and Notre Dame only have one.
The big debate right now is between Oklahoma and Notre Dame for the fourth slot—behind the ACC, SEC and Big Ten champion. Considering the quality of its loss to Texas compared to Notre Dame's loss to No. 1 Clemson, Oklahoma probably needs a second Irish "L" this weekend more than the Irish need one from the Sooners. However, Oklahoma will be able to flash its outright conference championship with a win this weekend, which is high up on the committee's criteria.
As Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer wrote this weekend, head coach Bob Stoops' squad is one of the few complete teams in the country and is arguably the hottest one right now. If they win in Stillwater, the Sooners will have knocked off three undefeated or one-loss teams in three straight weeks. A Bedlam win and an ND loss this weekend is the easiest path for OU, and it might have enough to get in without the latter.
Cheering for chaos
Baylor
The Bears aren't dead in the playoff race, as they showed Saturday night with a big win at Oklahoma State. In order to take home the outright Big 12 title, Baylor needs to win out and have Oklahoma drop to two losses with a defeat this weekend.
"The Bears could make an argument to pass Oklahoma, even though they lost head to head, because their only loss of the season came against a playoff contender, while Oklahoma dropped a game to non-contender Texas," Bleacher Report's Brian Leigh wrote. "The problem is Baylor can't really make that argument after last year, when in order to pass TCU it argued the opposite."
Even if Oklahoma State wins in Stillwater on Saturday, Baylor will probably need another domino to fall. A Notre Dame team with a lone loss to No. 1 Clemson was ahead of undefeated Baylor in the rankings a couple of weeks ago, and the Irish would most likely stay out in front if they defeated Stanford this weekend. In order to realistically get into No. 4, Baylor needs to win out in style against TCU and Texas and get a decent bit of help.
Oklahoma State
While Baylor needs an Oklahoma State win to pick up the Big 12 championship, Oklahoma State needs Baylor to slip up one more time, either to TCU or Texas. The Cowboys entered Week 12 as the No. 6 team in the eyes of the committee, and they blew a big chance to move up by losing to Baylor.
Oklahoma State would also love for Stanford to knock off Notre Dame this weekend, as it would swing the door open for a one-loss Big 12 champion to slide into the No. 4 slot.
Oklahoma State's title hopes may have been written off with Saturday night's loss, but some good old-fashioned chaos could rope the Cowboys back into the mix. They need to cool off a red-hot Oklahoma team and hope for an upset from a team they have already beaten this season—the Horned Frogs or the Longhorns.
Ohio State
Ohio State failed its first test against a ranked opponent this season with the home loss to Michigan State last Saturday. While the Buckeyes seem to have more problems than just getting back into the playoff picture, Ohio State isn't out of it just yet.
In order to have a clear shot at a title defense, the Buckeyes would need Penn State to beat Michigan State this weekend. Ohio State would advance to the Big Ten title game with a win over Michigan, and a win there over Iowa would make them a strong one-loss conference champion.
Doug Lesmerises of Cleveland.com also suggested a scenario where Michigan State and Ohio State would both make the playoff—one that involves a Notre Dame loss and a couple of big losses in the Big 12. The Buckeyes' path is far from straightforward after their loss to the Spartans, but it still exists right now.
Creating their own chaos
Florida
These last two contenders will need to create some large-scale chaos of their own in conference championship week and maybe even get one or two more one-loss teams to slip up in the process.
One-loss Florida, fresh off an ugly overtime victory over two-win Florida Atlantic, needs to defeat rival Florida State this weekend and then pull off a major upset against Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Those wins alone may not get the Gators into the playoff, but they'd have to make a big jump—Feng projected Florida to land at No. 10 in the next playoff rankings. Would they leapfrog, say, a one-loss Notre Dame team?
"After two straight seasons without a major bowl win and an SEC East that looks like a joke, I'm not sure Florida will get that benefit of the doubt [over Notre Dame]," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote. "The dominoes have relegated Florida to at or near the back of the one-loss pecking order, and it needs a miracle to win out."
North Carolina
North Carolina hasn't been winning as ugly as Florida recently, but the Tar Heels have the worst loss of anyone in playoff contention. UNC dropped a turnover-filled Week 1 decision to South Carolina, which is now 3-8 after its loss to an FCS school.
However, North Carolina has been racking up style points for most of the season, winning seven games by double digits. If it grabbed another one of those against NC State and then pulled off the shocker against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, it might sneak into the top four.
The playoff committee hasn't been a big fan of the Heels so far this season, as they weren't mentioned at all in the first set of rankings and entered Week 12 at No. 17 behind several two-loss schools. UNC would benefit the most from more one-loss teams falling these next two weeks in addition to a huge upset over the No. 1 team in the country.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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