New York Jets vs. Houston Texans: What's the Game Plan for New York?

It's been an awfully difficult four weeks for the New York Jets. 

After starting the season red-hot with a 4-1 mark, New York has dropped three of its last four and sits just one game above .500 at 5-4. The team that was once a game out of first place in the AFC East is now just a game out of the division's cellar.

Things don't exactly get easy from here on out as the Jets are at the crunch-time part of the season. That's what makes Sunday's matchup with the Houston Texans a borderline "must win." New York can't afford many more losses, especially those to teams it's supposed to beat. 

Houston, which now sits tied for first place in its own division, has bounced back as of late, but is going to be without starting quarterback Brian Hoyer this weekend. T.J. Yates will start in his place, and that's a bit of a drop-off. 

So, what do the Jets need to do to get the victory? Here's the game plan for New York:

Offensive Game Plan

Chris Ivory is the key to the New York Jets offense. Week in and week out, that's the case. Ask offensive coordinator Chan Gailey what he wants to do on Sunday, and the first three words out of his mouth will be "establish the run."

When Ivory gets going, the Jets offense is at its best. When Ivory doesn't, it struggles. It's not a common correlation; it's a fact. 

But if Ivory is New York's offensive engine, receiver Brandon Marshall is that engine's oil. 

Since being traded to the Jets from the Chicago Bears, Marshall has given the team something it hasn't had since Keyshawn Johnson was shipped to the Buccaneers: A true, elite-level, No. 1 wideout. Marshall is a physical freak, a player with hands of a wideout, the body of a linebacker and feet of a running back. When the ball's in the air, it's difficult to stop him from getting it. When the ball's in his hands, it may be even more difficult to bring him down to the ground. 

After dealing with nagging injuries a season ago, Marshall has returned to form in 2015. Through nine games, he has already caught 57 passes for 753 yards and six touchdowns. He's on pace to grab 101 balls for 1,338 yards and 11 scores. 

Those numbers say Marshall is having one helluva season, which he is. What those numbers don't say is he hasn't been nearly as effective as of late. 

In the Jets' first five games of the season, Marshall went over 100 yards in all but one and caught at least six passes in each. He was playing at a freakishly good level. The issue? Ever since then, teams have been double- and triple-teaming him. Thus, his production has taken a dip. 

First Five Games
7.4 Receptions	102.2 Yards	4 TDs (total)
Last Four Games
5 Receptions	60.5 Yards	2 TDs (total)

"They’re doubling him regularly and that’s probably understating it," Gailey said this week. "It’s probably more than regularly, it’s a high percentage of the time. They’re doubling him and finding ways to take him away and we keep trying to find ways to keeping him involved. So, it’s a chess match of how they play and how we play."

When the Jets began the season 4-1, they had the perfect mix. Ivory was running the ball well and Marshall was dominating split out wide. In a way, a defense was left flat-footed. If it doubled Marshall on the outside, that meant Ivory was running against just a seven-man front. If it brought that extra defender in the box, that meant Marshall was playing one-on-one on the outside.

Pick your poison. Either way, the Jets offense was having success.

But then the worst-case scenario hit. Starting guard Willie Colon was placed on the season-ending injured reserve with a knee injury and center Nick Mangold missed time with an injured neck. Suddenly, teams could stop the Jets' run without a stacked box, and that extra defender was in turn put on Marshall. 

New York's offense hasn't been the same. 

Right now, while Mangold works himself back to 100 percent and guard Brian Winters gets himself acclimated within the offense, there's nothing the team can do in regards to the running game. It can still be effective, but the games of Ivory rushing for 166 yards as he did against Miami or 146 as he did against Washington are likely over. Instead, performances like last Sunday's 18-rush, 99-yard outing against the Buffalo Bills seem more likely. 

Against the Houston Texans and a defensive front that features Jadeveon Clowney, J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork? Well, even a healthy Jets line may have trouble against that. Thus, the need for Marshall to step up, despite the know-it's-coming double-team, is key. 

"You have to try to move him around, (that is) the biggest thing," Gailey said. "Move him, put him in different spots, give him some different routes than he’s run before, which thankfully he’s open to that, and hopefully we’ll get the opportunity to get him some more balls.

"We need him to be involved to be a successful offense. They’re taking him away right now and we don’t have enough other people involved in the passing game to take that away from them at this point."

Defensive Game Plan

This could get ugly. It could get ugly quickly. 

When Texans head coach Bill O'Brien sat down this offseason and imagined what his starting offense would look like, this isn't what he pictured. T.J. Yates under center? Alfred Blue in the backfield? That's quite a drop-off from the likes of Brian Hoyer and Arian Foster. 

Let's start with Blue. 

Since being given the starting job once again when Foster was reinjured, this time for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, Blue has struggled to say the least. Against the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals, Blue rushed 26 times for 61 yards and no scores. That's an average of 2.3 yards per carry. This season, Blue is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, and he hasn't averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry in any game since September. 

But Blue's recent struggles had been masked partially due to the play of Hoyer. Prior to suffering his concussion a week ago, Hoyer had thrown eight touchdowns and just one interception in his previous three games. Blue didn't need to be a workhorse because the Texans offense was having success stretching the field vertically. 

But Hoyer won't be under center. Fifth-year pro T.J. Yates will. 

Yes, this T.J. Yates:

"

Brian Hoyer is out so we've reached the T.J. Yates portion of our programming https://t.co/qzcvnH9uPF

— Barstool Sports (@barstooltweets) November 17, 2015"

Since stunningly leading the Texans to a playoff victory his rookie year in place of an injured Matt Schaub, Yates has been little-used ever since. He's appeared in only nine games, attempted just 27 passes and his touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins last week was his first since 2011. 

He hasn't played for a reason. Yates isn't a starting quarterback and is a boarder line No. 3 at best. His career numbers illustrate that: 60.2 completion percentage, 1,233 passing yards, four touchdowns, seven interceptions, six fumbles. 

There is one thing the UNC product does have going for him, though...the Jets have just 11 passes a week ago for which to game-plan. It doesn't matter who you are, no player is the same Year 1 as they are Year 5 in their NFL careers. You change and get better, even if just marginally. 

As a result, the Jets in a way are working to build a game plan against a quarterback they don't know well. They're building a strategy to stop the things they think Yates can do, rather than what they know he can do. The Texans know his strengths and they know his weaknesses. The Jets will be looking to figure that out on Sunday. As a result, there may be a play or two early to be had if the Jets' initial game plan doesn't work.

But still, that's highly unlikely. On defense, the Jets are going to look to shut down the run then force Yates to beat them. With the running game being a non-factor as of late, and a hobbled Hopkins that missed Wednesday and Thursday's practices with a knee injury, the odds certainly are in New York's favor.

Key Matchups and Players 

Jadeveon Clowney vs. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Breno Giacomini 

The world knows what Texans stud J.J. Watt can do. He's a freak, and little can be done to stop him. Watt's going to make his plays, will likely have a sack or two on Sunday, and that's something the Jets are going to be preparing for. 

In order to slow Watt, you need to play perfectly. And even then, his never-ending motor will still lead him to a tackle-for-loss or two a game and a few quarterback hits. 

What the Jets cannot let happen on Sunday is for Clowney, the former No. 1 overall pick who's missed more games than he's played, to get going. 

When the Texans snagged the University of South Carolina star in the 2013 NFL draft, the team envisioned a front that would be near unblockable for an offense. Not only did you have an All-Pro in Watt on one side, but then Clowney on another. Sometimes, just for fun, the defense would put Watt and Clowney on the same side. 

But those scenarios, to this point, have only been in the heads of Houston's coaches. Of a possible 26 games, Clowney has played...11. In those games, he's registered 28 tackles, a sack and one forced fumble. 

Clowney has missed two games this year already but is expected to return against the Jets. With Watt regularly moving around the defensive line, it could be Breno Giacomini or D'Brickashaw Ferguson tasked with blocking him. 

This year, per Pro Football Focus, the Jets' two tackles have combined to allow only two quarterback sacks and eight quarterback hits in nine games. Those aren't elite numbers, but solid. With the Texans likely to contain Jets running back Chris Ivory, there's a good chance quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is dropping back quite a bit. 

If he's met in the backfield more times than not by Clowney, in addition to what Watt is expected to do, that's when things could take a turn for the worse for New York.

Calvin Pryor

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

As a rookie in 2014, things went horrible for Jets safety Calvin Pryor. Actually, horrible may not be a strong-enough adjective. 

Playing in a secondary ravaged by injuries, Pryor was forced to play out of position. Where the Louisville product fit best was down in the box. Where he was forced to play was back deep in coverage in deep zones. The results weren't pretty. 

Pryor allowed a 78.9 completion percentage, two touchdowns and an opposing quarterback rating of 121.1 when throwing his way. He was benched multiple times, labeled a bust by many and rendered an afterthought entering this season.

But oh, oh what a difference a year makes. 

"His maturity, just growing up and adjusting to this league and the speed of the game," Jets defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers said of Pryor earlier this week. "This guy, we feel like he’s a playmaker. We feel like we like him in the run game, we like him pressuring, we like him matching up on tight ends, we like his all-around game."

While Pryor's statistical numbers in the six games he's played aren't eye-opening good (36 tackles, one forced fumble, one interception), his impact on the defense is shown in the three games he missed with a high ankle sprain. 

With Pryor on the field, the Jets defense was allowing an average of 17.5 points per game. 

With Pryor off the field? 26.3. 

With Pryor on the field, the Jets won four of six games. 

With Pryor off the field, the Jets lost two of three. 

This Sunday, Pryor will make his return to the lineup. If he's back at 100 percent, or at least close to it, that's an awfully good thing for New York. 

With a Jets win

The Jets need this one. They need it bad. Just a month ago, the team was a game out of first place in the AFC East. Now, they sit a game ahead of the last-placed Dolphins and are in serious jeopardy of falling out of the playoff picture. With a few difficult games still on the schedule, the Jets can't afford to lose the ones they're supposed to win. This is one of those games. 

With a Jets loss

If the Jets can't beat a Texans team without its starting quarterback, starting running back and hobbled No. 1 wideout, it certainly doesn't bode well for their chances against teams that are, well, good. A loss to the Texans Sunday wouldn't end the Jets' hopes of making the playoffs, but it would be a major blow to them. 

Prediction

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

The Texans have a good defense. They do. No, the secondary isn't elite, but the defensive players in that front seven are enough to give any offense fits. 

J.J. Watt is J.J. Watt. Jadeveon Clowney has loads of untapped potential. Vince Wilfork is still solid and Brian Cushing is one of the better inside linebackers in the NFL. 

With that being said, it's hard to imagine the Texans offense scoring double-digit points on the Jets defense. 

This will be your typical 2015 Jets' game: The defense plays lights-out and dominates the opposing offense, and the Jets offense does enough (ugly or not) to win the game. It won't always be pretty, but the Jets will win handily. 

Look for Brandon Marshall to catch six passes for close to 100 yards and a score; Eric Decker gets in the end zone for the eighth time this season and Ivory will run for 70 yards and score a goal-line touchdown. Defensively, look for four sacks from the Jets and three interceptions. 

Final score? 

Jets 24, Texans 6

Connor Hughes is the New York Jets beat writer for the Journal Inquirer and Scout.com. All quotes, practice observations and advanced stats referenced are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Connor can be reached on Twitter (@Connor_J_Hughes) or via email ([e-mail]).