2016 NBA Draft: Returning Prospects Who Must Live Up to Their Hype
A handful of NBA prospects raised the bar for themselves by flashing pro potential last season many didn't initially see. This year, they'll have to validate it to prevent scouts and general managers from viewing last year's glimpses as fluky.
The following players are either sophomores, juniors or seniors who have to back up the recent hype by either capitalizing in bigger roles or making necessary adjustments.
Failing to do so could ultimately result in draft-night slides or permanent damage to one's stock, especially for the older prospects.
Grayson Allen (Duke, SG)
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Grayson Allen only played 9.2 minutes a game as a freshman, but a 27-point explosion against Wake Forest last March followed by a 16-point outburst (in 21 minutes) during the national championship game earned everyone's attention.
He'll try to keep it as a sophomore, with the bar raised and scouts at Duke games actually there to see him.
Allen's sales pitch to the pros ultimately revolves around his high-flying athleticism, motor and shooting potential.
But emerging as Duke's primary scorer and playmaker could really move his draft-stock needle in the right direction. He'll certainly have the chance, assuming his early 29.4 percent usage rate holds up, per Sports-Reference.com.
However, it's also a role that could expose his weaknesses, which we saw happen in Duke's first test of the year, when Allen finished 2-of-11 against Kentucky in a performance that highlighted forced shots and poor decision-making.
ESPN's Chad Ford reported last April that Allen could have been a first-rounder had he declared in 2015. To earn that type of consideration this upcoming June, he'll need to prove last year's two eruptions weren't fluky over the course of a full season.
Damian Jones (Vanderbilt, C)
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Damian Jones put up numbers as a sophomore, but for the most part, his potential was still flashed in spurts. He'll want to string them all together in 2015-16. Plateauing now sure wouldn't be a good look. Considering he's already announced this will be his last season in school, it's pretty important he makes the most of it.
“This is my last go-around,” Jones told the Tennessean's Adam Sparks. "But all that means is that I want to give it all I’ve got. I want to push this team and get to that next step while I’m here.”
He averaged 14.5 points in 2014-15 despite lacking substantial offensive polish, from his post game to his jumper.
The physical tools are there: 7'0" size, 7'2" wingspan, above-the-rim athleticism. But Jones hasn't established much shooting touch (career 57.1 percent from the line), and though a threat to score over the shoulder and wiggle free for looks playing back-to-the-basket, his post game is fairly basic. He's also totaled 137 career turnovers to just 38 assists.
Jones clearly has the talent and ingredients, but unless he takes the next step offensively, the excitement surrounding his potential could start to fade.
Kris Dunn (Providence, PG)
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Despite generating lottery buzz last season, Kris Dunn returned as a junior, when he'll actually have more to lose than gain—at least from a draft-stock perspective.
Last year, he'd likely have gone top 15 despite leading the country in turnovers and still struggling a bit from outside. It was his first full season after back-to-back major shoulder surgeries, which led to a free pass here and there.
Those passes will ultimately expire after this season. Failing to improve his decision-making and shooting numbers could potentially result in a slide down the board, especially when you consider he'll be 22 years old in March.
Regardless of how the year plays out, Dunn isn't leaving the first-round conversation. He's just too physically gifted and dangerous with the ball. But just matching last year's success may not be enough. Scouts will want to see adjustments that result in improved efficiency.
Malik Pope (San Diego State, SF)
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Malik Pope will look to convert the sporadic freshman flashes into a more steady stream of production in 2015-16. He only played 14.8 minutes and averaged 5.1 points last season. Now that his playing time is on par with most other NBA prospects (averaged 24.3 minutes through first two games) on the radar, expectations have naturally risen.
This past summer, he failed to make the U.S.A. roster (despite receiving an audition) that competed in the Under-19 FIBA World Championships—a stage that would have given him a nice opportunity to raise his stock.
And for what it's worth, he had a night to forget during his sophomore debut against Utah (missed seven of eight shots) in a game that likely had NBA eyeballs watching.
Pope's pro potential is ultimately fueled by mismatch physical tools for a wing—6'10" size and major bounce—as well as a promising shooting stroke that connected on 20-of-49 threes in 2014-15.
With more touches and scoring chances coming his way, scouts will want to see Pope capitalize during his second year at San Diego State. Maintaining his long-range accuracy while expanding his off-the-dribble game would be the obvious formula for strengthening his NBA case.
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin, SF/PF)
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With Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker off to the pros, all eyes now shift to Nigel Hayes, who should have the ball in his hands a lot more.
And scouts will be interested to see what he does with it. Despite growing optimism regarding his pro potential, Hayes' 15.1 points per 40 minutes last year wasn't a standout number. To keep the NBA buzz from fading, he'll want to become more of a threat with the ball one-on-one, especially when you consider the extra touches and scoring opportunities he'll now have.
Proving last year's three-point shooting numbers weren't fluky will be another priority, considering he went from zero made triples as a freshman to 40 hits at a 39.6 percent clip as a sophomore.
Hayes isn't an explosive athlete, and he'll be turning 21 years old in December. You don't get the impression he offers enough potential reward for a general manger to justify reaching and hopefully waiting for late development.
Hayes will ultimately want to make a statement now before scouts perceive the upside he's flashed is running out.
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