Saving the Houston Rockets, and Other NBA Rescue Missions
Do not fear every sluggish start to the 2015-16 NBA season.
Some teams, mind you, are what they are, even this early. They won't recover from lifeless beginnings. There is no salvation scheduled on their calendars.
The Philadelphia 76ers, for instance, are not a playoff team, or even half of a playoff team, or even one-millionth of a playoff team, or even one-half of one-millionth of a playoff team (sorry). The Los Angeles Lakers, much to Philly's displeasure, will lose enough games to potentially remain in possession of their top-three-protected draft pick that's owed to the Sixers. The injury-infested New Orleans Pelicans—well, let's just say Anthony Davis should start imagining what it's like to play beside Ben Simmons.
Other struggling squads aren't so unlucky. They might be stuck behind the eight ball, but there is a light at the end of their otherwise pitch-black tunnel.
And we're going to point them toward it.
Teams included here are those that entered 2015-16 with actual expectations. In other words, they're projected playoff factions.
Slow starts will be measured solely by records. These revival hopefuls can be at or below .500 but must be no better than one game above water.
Hope is subsequently shelled out based upon upcoming schedules, conference structures, improving health and any silver linings that have shined through during a mostly dark time.
Now put those panic buttons away. We're here to peddle optimism.
Houston Rockets
1 of 5
There is time for the Houston Rockets to salvage their season, and they know it.
That's why they canned head coach Kevin McHale less than a year after handing him a contract extension, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Houston's players may or may not have tuned out McHale, and the Rockets have made no mystery of their intentions to compete now.
"I hate to lose," owner Leslie Alexander told ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins. "I enjoy watching my team play, and I can’t watch my team play now. I want to win real fast."
Houston's offense, which ranks in the bottom seven of efficiency, isn't guaranteed to explode at all. With the exception of Harden going off nightly, the Rockets were mediocre on that end last season. It was their defense, not their offense, that carried them.
Still, Harden isn't going to shoot under 40 percent forever. Ty Lawson won't flirt with sub-30 percent shooting until the end of time. Dwight Howard will start playing back-to-backs at some point. Patrick Beverley (ankle) and Donatas Motiejunas (back) shouldn't be stuck on the sidelines all season.
It helps that the Rockets' two most used lineups are outplaying opponents. Their most frequently fielded unit, a combination of Trevor Ariza, Harden, Howard, Lawson and Marcus Thornton, is a plus-5.4 points per 100 possessions. That differential would rank fifth in the league overall.
Talent usually figures things out, and only three of Houston's next 15 games will be played against squads above .500. They're not even two games outside the playoff picture, and the Western Conference's postseason bubble is filled with various feel-good stories—Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks—that won't last.
Just barely under .500, the Rockets' window to contend this season hasn't closed yet.
Memphis Grizzlies
2 of 5
Disclosure: It's too late for the Memphis Grizzlies to regain their role as bona fide contenders.
The rest of the NBA has passed them by in many ways. Their floor spacing is still awful, they don't shoot nearly enough three-pointers and the offense in general looks fated to spend the entire season dwelling among the Association's bottom 10.
Throw in a defense that uncharacteristically ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions, the decline of Courtney Lee's three-point shooting (21.1 percent) and Marc Gasol's less-than-MVP numbers, and silver linings don't appear to be readily available in Memphis.
But these are the Grizzlies. They are notoriously scrappy and still have the necessary pieces to deploy a dangerous defense. Their primary starting lineup—Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Gasol, Lee and Zach Randolph—defends with top-five stinginess, and the addition of Mario Chalmers should help weaponize their offense at least a tad.
Equally important: The Grizzlies have labored through the NBA's second-toughest schedule, and despite playing poorly by their own standards on both sides of the floor, they're still sitting at .500, a mere game back of a top-four conference record.
Keeping pace with the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs will prove impossible. The Grizzlies aren't that team. Barring a monster midseason trade, they don't have the two-way versatility to seriously flirt with winning a title this season.
What they do have is a collection of players good enough to wedge its way back onto the fringes of playoff territory.
Toronto Raptors
3 of 5
Hovering right above .500 is of little concern in the Eastern Conference. But the Raptors are supposed to be way better.
Toronto's defense has aesthetically and statistically improved. It's better equipped to defend smaller lineups and allowing just 100.2 points per 100 possessions. That ranks 14th in the league as of now, but it would have been good enough for a top-seven finish last season and should let the Raptors sniff a top-10 standing this year if it holds.
It's the offense that incites serious worry. The Raptors rank inside the top 10 in efficiency, but they're averaging five points per 100 possessions fewer than they did in 2014-15.
The main culprit(s): their starting five.
DeMarre Carroll, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola and Jonas Valanciunas have been an offensive wash when sharing the floor. The ball sticks, and the pace stalls.
These five are admittedly providing attack-the-rim-friendly spacing. DeMar DeRozan still can't chuck triples, and Jonas Valanciunas seldom journeys outside 10 feet of the hoop. But Luis Scola is draining treys left and right, and this lineup posts a collective three-point success rate of nearly 44 percent.
All of this added versatility has just yet to take shape. Carroll is dealing with plantar fasciitis, DeRozan has been an offensive roller coaster and the second unit is one of the least effective in basketball, according to HoopsStats.com.
They may be able to correct many of these issues as the season wears on. In the meantime, the Raptors have yet to lose a game by more than 10 points and have hung tight against Western Conference contenders like the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.
They're going to be fine.
Milwaukee Bucks
4 of 5
Some might have predicted that the Milwaukee Bucks would stumble to start the season, but few, if any, could have predicted the actual reason why.
Offense seem to be the logical starting point. But it's the Bucks defense that's betraying them. They went from allowing 99.3 points per 100 possessions last season (second in the league), to forking over 106.3 in the early part of 2015-16 (29th)—a seven-point swing in the wrong direction.
"Often praised for his impressive offensive skill set and rebounding ability but criticized for his lack of defensive talent," wrote USA Today's AJ Neuharth-Keusch, "Monroe's adjustment to the Bucks system has caused some inconsistencies on both sides of the ball."
The Bucks are actually scoring fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season. Their standing has shifted; their execution has not. And while they're a defensive plus with Monroe in the game, they're visibly covering up for his shoddy rim protection, employing fewer traps and guarding more conservatively overall.
Of course, Monroe isn't the only one at fault. Milwaukee needs to strike a balance between featuring him, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Carter-Williams; Jabari Parker is still battling injuries; Greivis Vasquez can't buy a three-pointer; the team ranks second to last in rebounding rate; and Khris Middleton is trying to find his touch from inside—yes, inside—the arc.
Under .500, the Bucks are nowhere near where they want to be. But they still have the length to be more aggressive on defense, and they improve at large whenever Middleton is on the hardwood. A gutsy Nov. 14 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers is nothing to write off, either.
Once some of their longer-term projects round into midseason form—Monroe, Parker, Antetokounmpo, etc.—they'll be ready to exit the Eastern Conference's basement.
Washington Wizards
5 of 5
Struggling to remain above .500 with a totally average offense and below-average defense isn't what the Washington Wizards envisioned when they fully committed themselves to trotting out smaller, more fungible lineups.
Health has played a pivotal role in slowing Washington out of the gate. Bradley Beal has missed time as he continues dealing with a shoulder injury, Alan Anderson is on the shelf with an ankle issue and it's been determined that Martell Webster needs hip surgery that will sideline him for the entire season, according to the Washington Post's Jorge Castillo.
Something needs to give for the Wizards. They've yet to beat a team with a winning record, and the starting lineup of Beal, Marcin Gortat, Kris Humphries, Otto Porter and John Wall has been under-the-radar horrible on the offensive end.
Why, then, are they locks to improve?
Put simply, they're too talented not to.
Even if Wall has peaked, he's distributing and defending at an All-Star level. Beal, when healthy, is scoring like the MVP version of Harden. The Wizards, even as they're slumping, have shown they're head and shoulders above inferior opponents with comfortable victories over the Orlando Magic on Nov. 14 and Bucks on Nov. 16.
Tinkering with the rotation—or the roster in general—is a must at this point. Washington needs more floor spacing from the power forward position than Humphries and Porter can provide, and it can't get by allowing opponents to shoot 38 percent from downtown.
And yet, amid their stagnant start, the Wizards are still a breath away from being a top-four team in the East. That we're painting a winning record as initially discouraging is actually encouraging.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate leading into games for Nov. 19.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
