San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Seattle Seahawks own six victories in their last seven rivalry meetings with the San Francisco 49ers, and a 7-0-1 mark against the spread over the last eight. But at the moment they're also suffering, perhaps, from a case of the Super Bowl flu, with five losses and just two covers through their first nine games. Seattle shoots just to reach the .500 mark when it hosts the Niners Sunday.

Point spread: The Seahawks opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.0-10.9 Seahawks

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

After winning just two of their first eight games this season San Francisco benched quarterback Colin Kaepernick, replaced him with Blaine Gabbert and promptly beat Atlanta two weeks ago 17-16, taking that game outright as a seven-point home dog.

Too bad the Niners had last week off, just when they were getting hot.

San Francisco spotted the Falcons an early field goal, but a hot Gabbert directed three first-half scoring drives, giving the Niners a lead they'd never relinquish. Things didn't go quite as well in the second half for Gabbert, as he threw a couple of picks, but he also ran for 32 yards and bootlegged to a key first down that helped the 49ers run out the clock.

On the day San Francisco outrushed Atlanta 133-17, and that's usually a good way to cover a spread in the NFL. Now, can they do it again?

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Seattle had won back-to-back games over the Niners and Dallas, allowing just five field goals and nary a touchdown, but lost a wild one Sunday night at home to Arizona 39-32. The Seahawks trailed 19-0 early and 22-7 at the half, rallied back, with help from a pair of Carson Palmer fumbles, to take a 29-25 lead early in the fourth quarter, but couldn't hold on as the defense let them down.

After a slow start the Seahawks came up with 343 total yards of offense, and the defense carded three sacks and three turnovers. But in the end an early safety, which basically led to nine Cardinals points, and a long Andre Ellington touchdown run with two minutes to go, provided the difference.

So at 4-5 Seattle finds itself in desperation mode, three games (and a tiebreaker) behind division-leading Arizona in the NFC West, two games off the pace in the NFC wild-card race. And a home loss to a lesser opponent would probably kill any hopes of making the playoffs.

Smart pick

San Francisco is working off a much-needed victory, while the Seahawks seem a bit lost. Seattle is also now just 1-3 ATS at home this season. However, the Seahawks just beat the 49ers one month ago down at Levi's Stadium 20-3, outgaining San Francisco by almost 250 yards, covering as seven-point favorites. And how much have things really changed since then? Take Seattle here, on the rebound.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games in this matchup.

The 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against the Seahawks.

The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 11.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.