NFL Predictions Week 11: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's the worst year of NFL football ever.

That's what a lot of people are starting to think—from NFL coaches and analysts to NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman. As I wrote, the games have never been closer, but the season has never been duller; a handful of teams are running away with the league while 20 teams—nearly two-thirds of the NFL—are losers through 10 weeks of play.

Will these trends hold up? Or, as some suggest, are we due for a massive regression to the mean? Are teams who coasted through an easy first-half schedule about to hit the skids? We hope not, but are quarterback injuries going to lay more quality teams low? Or are some teams going to get their signal-caller back and flip the switch?

With all the uncertainty surrounding this week and the future, our panel of eight NFL experts had to polish their crystal balls, shuffle their tarot cards a few extra times and light a few more candles before they made their projections for a crucial Week 11.

In what could be the tipping point for the entire season—some teams could approach mathematical elimination, others could all but clinch—our panel of expert prognosticators will try to pull rabbits out of their hats.

Well, not rabbits, but upsets, blowouts, sleepers and flops.

Biggest Upset

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Expert Consensus Projection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) over Philadelphia Eagles—four votes

Here we are in Week 11, and we still have almost no idea what to make of the Philadelphia Eagles. They're 4-5, yet their offense and defense are both in the top half of the league in scoring. They thrashed the New York Giants 27-7 in Week 6 but are coming off a Week 10 loss to the struggling Miami Dolphins.

Meanwhile, we know exactly who the Bucs are: a team with a gifted, raw young quarterback and a collection of talent that tends to play to its level of competition. While it's an open question as to what, exactly, the Eagles' level is, the Bucs have just enough playmakers in just the right spots to give the Eagles trouble—especially if backup quarterback Mark Sanchez plays.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier took a different track. He voted for the San Francisco 49ers not to upset the Seattle Seahawks, but to eat a bite out of the massive 13.5-point cushion Vegas is giving them:

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The upsets get harder and harder this time of year. But the early line on 49ers-Seahawks is hovering around 10 points. This game has all the earmarks of a 13-10 slog, more like Seahawks-Lions last month than any of the old games the Seahawks would cover via defensive touchdowns and near shutouts.

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Others receiving votes: Chicago Bears (+1.5) over Denver Broncos; Detroit Lions (+1) over Oakland Raiders; Indianapolis Colts (+6) over Atlanta Falcons; San Francisco 49ers cover (+13.5) against Seattle Seahawks

Biggest Blowout

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Expert Consensus Projection: Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco 49ers—five votes

While NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier believes the 49ers are going to give their rival a game, five of our experts liked the Seahawks—and the 12th Man—to rebound nicely from their Week 10 loss at the hands of hot Arizona Cardinals squad.

The Seahawks haven't lost three straight home games since 2008, when they went 4-12. As much as they've struggled to find their Super Bowl form, it's unthinkable that they'd break that streak against any 3-6 team—let alone the hated 49ers, with whom the Seahawks have had one of the NFL's best recent rivalries.

An emphatic victory Sunday would be the perfect catharsis for the frustrated Seahawks, and a majority of our experts think Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom will indeed work out their frustrations on the 49ers.

Others receiving votes: Carolina Panthers over Washington; Dallas Cowboys over Miami Dolphins; New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills

Higher Total: Packers Rushing Yards or Vikings Non-AD Rushing Yards?

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Expert Consensus Projection: Packers—seven votes

On the heels of Adrian Peterson cracking the 200-yard mark for the sixth time in his career, it's hard to imagine the Vikings piling up very many yards without him.

That's why, despite the Packers averaging just 69.3 team rushing yards over the past three games, seven of our eight experts projected Green Bay to rush for more yards against Minnesota than the Vikings (minus Peterson) would gain on the ground against the Packers.

However, there's more to the Vikings rushing attack than just Peterson. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, tailback Jerick McKinnon and the rest of the offensive skill-position players are averaging 33.6 yards per game.

Perhaps more importantly, the Vikings have the NFL's best run defense. They've held opposing teams under 100 yards in six of their nine games, and allowed an average of 78.8 yards per game across their last four contests that did not involve Todd Gurley.

NFL Analyst Ty Schalter is going with the hot unit (Vikings ground game, even without Peterson) over the cold unit (Packers entire run game), even though everyone else is going with the Packers.

Others receiving votes: Vikings (minus Adrian Peterson)—one votes

Biggest Mismatch

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Expert Consensus Projection: Kansas City Chiefs pass rush vs. San Diego Chargers offensive line—three votes

This is pretty simple math: The Chiefs are tied for the sixth-best sack rate in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference, and as NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon writes, the Chargers are poorly equipped to handle them:

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With 3.5 sacks and 15 pressures in his last two games, Justin Houston is on fire again. Against an unstable line that Pro Football Focus ranks 31st in terms of pass-rushing efficiency, Houston should have a field day in San Diego.

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NFL Analyst Gary Davenport went cheeky on the poor beleaguered Cleveland Browns, writing that the bye week will "roll for 150" yards on the Browns—who, in fact, are allowing a league-worst average of 138.8 yards per game.

Others receiving votes: New York Jets defense vs. Houston Texans offensive line—two votes; Bye week vs. Cleveland Browns run defense; Raiders passing offense vs. Lions' banged-up secondary; Todd Gurley vs. Baltimore Ravens run defense

Sleeper QB Performance

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Expert Consensus Projection: Matt Hasselbeck, Indianapolis Colts—six votes

The sleeper categories are usually hotly contested, with just two or three votes being enough to make a plurality—and make one sleeper as bare a "consensus" pick as possible.

There was no drama about the sleeper quarterback position this week, though, as Colts backup Matt Hasselbeck garnered a whopping six nominations from our expert panel. It's no surprise; all the indicators are pointing toward a big day for whomever's under center for Indianapolis.

The Atlanta Falcons are rapidly cooling off after a hot start. They've gone 1-3 as the fire has gone out of their defense—and as the 49ers showed in Week 10, you don't need to score a lot of points to beat them.

Meanwhile, Hasselbeck has an enviable collection of weapons to work with, and he already steered the Colts to two wins earlier this season.

Others receiving votes: Case Keenum, St. Louis Rams; Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

More Passing Yards: Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer?

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Expert Consensus Projection: Carson Palmer—six votes

It's tempting, of course, to use "who will get the most X this week" as a proxy for "who is playing better right now." Palmer is outgaining Dalton on the season, with a per-game average of 305.4 yards compared to 269.2. 

It's even harder to look at Palmer's big win in Seattle and Dalton's epic collapse at home on Monday Night Football and not vote Palmer.

That's not what our experts did.

Who gets more passing yards in a specific game isn't a one-on-one thing; Palmer and Dalton aren't going to go out there just the two of them like Larry Bird and Michael Jordan. Dalton doesn't have to throw a lot because he has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense and his offense has the sixth-most rushing yards.

The Cardinals have the 11th-ranked scoring defense and seventh-ranked passing-yardage defense, so it's more more likely Palmer will need to throw. Even if Dalton plays well, he likely won't need to play catch-up.

Others receiving votes: Andy Dalton—two votes

More Turnovers: Kirk Cousins or Cam Newton?

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Expert Consensus Projection: Kirk Cousins—seven votes

Kirk Cousins is coming off a Mary Poppins performance: practically perfect in every way. In Week 10, Cousins went 20-of-25 for 325 yards, four touchdowns, no turnovers and a maxed-out 158.3 passer efficiency rating.

Cam Newton's passing numbers, on paper, aren't worth singing about: 56.3 percent completion rate, 15-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 84.8 passer rating. In fact, Newton's 3.3 percent interception rate is third-worst among NFL starters, significantly higher than Cousins' 2.7 percent rate.

Yet, our experts voted overwhelmingly for Cousins to turn it over more often on Sunday. Why?

Defense.

Cousins is going up against the gnarly Panthers pass defense. The Panthers aren't just sixth-best in points allowed, they're tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with 13, more than twice as many as 22nd-ranked Washington. Cousins has also fumbled three times this year, one more than Newton.

Others receiving votes: Cam Newton

Sleeper RB Performance

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Expert Consensus Projection: Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions—three votes

One of the preseason's hottest players, Abdullah flashed game-changing ability in August and September. A crowded Lions backfield, as well as a nasty ball-security problem, kept him from showing his stuff for much of the regular season.

Abdullah finally got loose against the Green Bay Packers, breaking off an incredible 104-yard kickoff return that set up the game-winning score. He also had six offensive touches for 21 yards—not world-beating numbers, of course, but more effective than starter Joique Bell. Going up against the Raiders and their 27th-ranked scoring defense, Abdullah should be able to make some serious moves.

Two pairs of our experts disagreed, but in different directions. One pair liked Dolphins tailback Jay Ajayi to build off his team-leading rushing performance in Week 10 when he takes on the flailing Dallas Cowboys. Two others like Chiefs tailback Charcandrick West against the Chargers' 27th-ranked rushing defense.

Others receiving votes: Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins—two votes; Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs—two votes; Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys

Sleeper WR Performance

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Expert Consensus Projection: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks—five votes

The Seahawks have never lost three straight home games under head coach Pete Carroll, and they don't figure to break that streak against the hapless San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers, fourth-worst in per-game passing yardage allowed, are a soft target for Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and the Seahawks passing offense to get back on track. The protection issues that have disrupted the pass game shouldn't be an issue; the 49ers pass rush has been graded third-worst on the year so far by Pro Football Focus.

Baldwin's a boom-or-bust guy, and whether he booms has a lot to do with whether Wilson has time to let his deep routes develop. Our experts are looking for him to try to top his season-best 134-yard performance from Week 10.

Others receiving votes: Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers; Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders; Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings

Sleeper TE Performance

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Expert Consensus Projection: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions—three votes

Our panel keeps going to the Eric Ebron well; last week they came up empty as Ebron dropped catch after catch. He kept getting his big, athletic frame open against the Green Bay Packers, and Matthew Stafford kept throwing it his way—but he kept failing to bring it in.

Pro Football Focus charted Ebron with eight targets, four catches and three drops. But the wide variety of players he was covered by show just what a matchup problem Ebron is: Cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Damarious Randall, safeties Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde and even linebacker Julius Peppers took a crack at guarding Ebron.

He got open against all of them. If Ebron can consistently make easy catches against Oakland, he's going to have a very big day.

Others receiving votes: Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts; Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs; Vance McDonald, San Francisco 49ers; Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings; Jacob Tamme, Atlanta Falcons

Best Defensive Performance

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Expert Consensus Projection: Justin Houston/Kansas City Chiefs—three votes

Our experts can't get enough of red-hot Justin Houston and his Chiefs pass rush against the porous Chargers offensive line. They're our Biggest Mismatch and Best Defensive Performance—and with the flagging Denver Broncos giving them new divisional life, they're going to bring everything they've got against poor, defenseless Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.

But NFL Analyst Gary Davenport just can't give up on his never-ending love for J.J. Watt. Moreover, Watt is starting to reward Davenport's loyalty:

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Over his past three games, Watt has racked up 14 tackles, 5.5 sacks and one hilarious postgame swipe at Andy Dalton ("Red Ryder BB gun"...classic). This week the first-place Texans take on a stumbling Jets team helmed by a Harvard-educated quarterback. If Ryan Fitzpatrick is really that smart, he'll stay at home and let Geno Smith take the beating that's coming.

 

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Others receiving votes: Chicago Bears; Denver Broncos; Josh Norman, CB, Carolina Panthers; New York Jets; J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

Over/Under: 2 Combined Colts-Falcons Sacks

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Expert Consensus Projection: Over—seven votes

OK, I'll admit it: I'm the contrarian.

The matchup between the Colts and Falcons isn't just critical for both teams' postseason hopes. It isn't just a matchup of a 40-year-old backup quarterback against a high-powered offense that's suddenly lost its juice.

It's a matchup of two of the perennially worst pass rushes in the NFL.

The Colts are third-worst in the NFL with a sack rate of just 3.7 percent—and the Falcons, somehow, are even worse. Their 2.9 percent sack rate is only a tenth of a percent higher than the New York Giants' league-worst 2.8.

Moreover, Matt Ryan's 4.5 percent sack rate this season is better than average, 12th-best in the NFL. Hasselbeck's is even better at 3.8 percent, which would tie him for fifth-best in the NFL if he had enough dropbacks to qualify for rate stats. Pro Football Focus grades the Colts and Falcons pass-blocking units 10th- and 11th-best, respectively.

All of the signs point toward the sack rate being really, really low. My seven colleagues didn't think it would be so low that the teams record fewer than three sacks between them, but I do. In fact, I took the under.

Others receiving votes: Under—one vote

Flop of the Week

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Expert Consensus Projection: Blaine Gabbert, QB, San Francisco 49ers—three votes

Media members like our eight experts love to root for great stories, and there would be few better stories than a former No. 10 overall draft pick busting out, groveling for a backup job, riding the pine for a couple of seasons and somehow playing his way back to glory.

Every single one of our eight panelists would love to see 49ers second-stringer Blaine Gabbert dominate the Seahawks, play great football down the stretch and claim a starting job in the spring (either in San Francisco or somewhere else).

But none of our panelists are projecting that to happen. In fact, we're picking Gabbert as our Flop of the Week.

In one of the more interesting minority opinions, NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon picked our Sleeper WR Performance nominee, Doug Baldwin, as his Flop of the Week. Maybe Baldwin's boom-or-bust nature will prevent him from putting together two back-to-back great games.

Others receiving votes: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks; Kansas City Chiefs; Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington; Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears; Case Keenum, QB, St. Louis Rams