Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos are almost the definition of resilience over recent seasons, winning 12 of their last 13 games following losses, going 10-3 against the spread. But this week, they'll try to bounce back from a defeat without Peyton Manning when they visit Chicago to take on the improving Bears Sunday afternoon at Solider Field.

Point spread: Broncos opened as three-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.2-19.6 Bears

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver started 7-0 this season, with wins over Minnesota (7-2) and Green Bay (6-3), but has lost its last two games, most recently a 29-13 decision at home to Kansas City last week. A hobbled Manning was terrible, throwing four interceptions, and had to be pulled, replaced by fourth-year pro Brock Osweiler, who hit on 14 of 24 throws for 146 yards and a touchdown, albeit in garbage time.

On the day, the Denver defense only gave up 303 yards of Chiefs offense, 80 of those coming on one long, late Kansas City scoring play, and held KC to five field goals, against some short fields, thanks to five Broncos turnovers. They also played that game without linebacker DeMarcus Ware.

Denver will be fine defensively; it's mainly a matter of getting the running game going, because after all, a good running game is a backup quarterback's best friend. Perhaps the Broncos can do that this week, going against Chicago's 26th-ranked run defense.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Since beginning this season 0-3, the Bears are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, following last week's 37-13 romp over the Rams in St. Louis. Chicago spotted the Rams a touchdown on the first drive of the game, then went to work from there, taking the lead for good midway through the second quarter, pulling away by scoring the last 13 points of the game.

On the day, the Bears outgained St. Louis 397-285, and 80 of those Rams yards came on the game's opening drive. Quarterback Jay Cutler threw three touchdown passes without a pick, and running back Jeremy Langford, subbing for the injured Matt Forte, produced 182 yards from scrimmage and scored twice.

Two weeks ago, Chicago rallied to beat San Diego, and its only two losses over its last six games both came by a field goal. The Bears are playing some better ball under new head coach John Fox.

Smart pick

Langford is filling in nicely for Forte, Cutler looks good and Chicago is actually playing with some spirit. Meanwhile, Osweiler will be making his first career NFL start, and over the last three weeks teams that have started backup quarterbacks are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. Back the Bears here.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Bears.

The Bears are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.

The Broncos are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.