Updated 2015 NASCAR Title Odds: Week 36
Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is both the season-ending and the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship-deciding race.
Four of the 16 original drivers that began the Chase back in September remain and will battle it out for the 2015 title: four-time champ Jeff Gordon, defending champ Kevin Harvick and potential first-time champs in Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr.
Ironically, there are three Chevrolet drivers and one Toyota driver in the Sprint Cup Championship 4 round—yet no Ford drivers in a weekend that is sponsored by the blue oval manufacturer.
Although, to be fair, a Ford driver (Chris Buescher) has a good chance of winning the Xfinity Series championship on Saturday. And another Ford driver, Tyler Reddick, could still overtake Erik Jones to win the Camping World Truck Series title.
In last season’s championship race, Kevin Harvick needed to win the actual event to win the championship—and there’s reason to think that will be the case once again this Sunday.
In effect, all four drivers are all-in and will do everything they have to do to win the championship. For the one and only time this season, they don’t have to worry about points, as whoever finishes the highest will be crowned champion.
Let’s look at those drivers in NASCAR’s version of the Final Four and see how the odds of their chances stack up.
Martin Truex Jr.
1 of 4
Working in his favor
This is the true Cinderella team of the Chase. Truex’s “never give up” mantra has propelled him both professionally and personally (during his girlfriend’s battle with ovarian cancer).
Truex has never gotten this far in any form of the Chase. He has nothing to lose and everything to win. While others may expect the championship to come down to Jeff Gordon vs. Kevin Harvick, Truex has a very good chance to steal the championship away if his competitors are more focused on themselves and not on him.
Working against him
Truex has already made history as the first driver from a single-car team (Furniture Row Racing) in NASCAR annals to advance this far in the Chase.
His predecessor at FRR, Kurt Busch, was the first driver to qualify for the Chase from a single-car team, but he failed to make it far enough to win the championship.
Truex has no teammates to lean on, nobody to block for him or to block the other three Chase drivers on the track. Sure, he may get some help from Richard Childress Racing’s three drivers due to the technical alliance Furniture Row shares with RCR (who has no drivers in the final round). There’s no question Truex is going to have his hands full, but what a story it would be if he wound up in Victory Lane.
Odds: 7-1 (up from 25-1 last week)
Kyle Busch
2 of 4
Working in his favor
Kyle Busch has long been a Sprint Cup champ in waiting. There have been several seasons where he entered the Chase strong, only to fall short each time. Not this year. Busch is in it to win it.
Granted, some fans may not be happy that he missed 11 races due to crash-related injuries and was granted an exemption to be eligible for the Chase. But it’s hard to ignore someone who has four wins and has been one of the best on the circuit since he returned in May.
What’s more, he has three teammates to give him great support and help guide him to the championship, including Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth (who returns from a two-race suspension) and Carl Edwards.
Working against him
Every time Busch has made the Chase, he’s folded under pressure. While he’s had a number of events in life this year that may have caused him to become more mature (like the birth of his first child and the comeback from his February crash), the biggest uncertainty is whether he will be able to finally handle the pressure now that he is in the championship-deciding race.
Frankly, given all he’s gone through this year, winning the championship could potentially be the easiest thing he’s done.
Odds: 5-1 (up from 25-1 last week)
Kevin Harvick
3 of 4
Working in his favor
Kevin Harvick is bound and determined to prove last year’s first Sprint Cup championship of his career was not a fluke and that he truly merits winning back-to-back titles.
Harvick has one of the best crew chiefs in the business (Rodney Childers), an excellent pit crew and three teammates (Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick) to help guide him to Victory Lane yet again. If Harvick has a weakness, I don’t see it.
But he does have one major obstacle: Jeff Gordon. The way I see it, this championship could come down to a last-lap battle between Harvick’s No. 4 Chevrolet and Gordon’s No. 24. May the best man win. Plus, Harvick turns 40 on Dec. 8. What better early birthday present to give himself than a second straight championship.
Working against him
Harvick has not exactly had the best Chase. While he finished third at Texas and second this past Sunday at Phoenix, he also finished 42nd at Chicago, 21st at Loudon, 16th at Kansas and 15th at Talladega.
What’s more, he had to win at Dover (his last win of the season and only third win overall in 2015 vs. five wins in 2014) to advance to the second round. Plus, if it weren't for a wreck at Talladega that earned him the elusive one point to advance to Round 3, we may not be talking about him at this point.
I just can’t put my finger on it, but Harvick just doesn’t seem to have the “it” that he had in last year’s Chase. And that could ultimately be the difference between Harvick repeating or falling short.
Odds: 4-1 (up from 10-1 last week)
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Jeff Gordon
4 of 4
Working in his favor
It’s hard not to look at Jeff Gordon as the overwhelming sentimental favorite in Sunday’s race. This will be the final race of Gordon’s illustrious 23-year Sprint Cup career.
He’s been chasing a fifth championship for 14 years. What better way to go out than to do so on top. Gordon has one of the strongest teams behind him, as well as teammates, and that could wind up being the difference between him winning the championship or not.
I said after Kevin Harvick won last year’s championship that a better storyline could not have been written. If Gordon wins Sunday, we just found that better storyline.
Working against him
There’s no question Gordon has been riding a wave of momentum ever since winning at Martinsville three weeks ago.
As much as I hate to bring it up, Gordon has not had a stellar year by any stretch. In fact, he has the worst total record of all four Chase drivers with just one win, and only five top-five and 20 top-10 finishes. Granted, Kyle Busch has just 15 top-10s, but he also missed 11 races due to injury.
Gordon has to reach back for some of his old mojo and magic if he hopes to win this one. The question is, though, will it still be there for him to rely upon?
Odds: 3-1 (up from 4-1 last week)
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