College Football Rankings 2015: Playoff Standings and Predictions for Week 12

Week 11 was the calm before the proverbial storm in college football. A new batch of playoff rankings were released, but the Top Four remained the same. 

For now, Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame can rest assured the committee still likes what they've done on the field. They can't afford to fall asleep at the wheel, though.

At this point, one bad week could lead to a tumble down the rankings. Even a win that isn't deemed impressive by the committee can lead to losing some ground in the race. TCU found that out the hard way this week. The Frogs dropped three spots from last week after narrowly defeating Kansas.

Here's a look at the most recent Top 25 as the playoff committee sees it.  

The current hierarchy is only a snapshot of how the committee views these teams at this point in time. If we've learned anything so far, it's that tectonic shifts can happen as the season comes to its conclusion. Here's a look at the games that could have a drastic effect on the field. 

Notre Dame vs. Boston College

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

On the surface, this seems like an odd place to start a list of important games in Week 12. 

Based on records and the eye test, this should be an easy win for Notre Dame. But if the Irish think they can start looking ahead to Stanford while keeping their spot at No. 4, this is a game that's more dangerous than its first impression indicates. 

Consider the following:

• Boston College's defense is one of the best in college football by just about every metric. Football Outsiders' S&P rankings have them at No. 2, their FEI is at No. 5 and they're No. 1 in yards allowed per game, per CFBStats.
• This game is being played at Fenway in Boston, which is essentially a home game for the Eagles, with the added weird factor of playing at a baseball field. 
• Notre Dame has No. 11 Stanford next week, which creates a bit of a look-ahead risk in this game. 

This doesn't necessarily mean that the Irish are doomed. There's a reason that they are ranked No. 4. They have plenty of weapons on offense to challenge the Eagles defense in the way most offenses cannot.

Head coach Brian Kelly acknowledged the balance that BC has on defense, noting that there aren't many players you can target.

“It’s really a defensive unit philosophy that you’re working at more than anything else,” he said, according to an Associated Press report via the Indianapolis Star. “So it’s not one particular guy. So you’re really looking at how they’re coached and how they’re defending down-and-distance and formationally.” 

However, it's worth noting that it wouldn't be surprising to see this game get ugly. Boston College's offense is abysmal at just 17.3 points per game, but they do have the ability to make this a slugfest.  

The Irish probably aren't on full-blown upset alert, but it isn't a stretch to think they might have issues getting separation from a 1-7 team on Saturday. With some of the teams sitting behind them looking to make big statements, this game is sneakily important for Brian Kelly. 

Prediction: Notre Dame 20, Boston College 14

The Big 12 Doubleheader: TCU vs. Oklahoma; Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

When the Big 12 put together its schedule, it clearly wanted the conference to be on center stage the last two weeks of the season. 

Mission accomplished. 

The four teams involved in these two games have three losses among them, and only one team really feels like it has been eliminated by the committee. TCU would have to win convincingly the next two weeks to move from 18 to the Top Four. 

However, one of these teams is going to have a strong case for inclusion in the playoff. On Saturday, we'll have a better idea of who that team is. 

Oklahoma State has the inside track. The Cowboys are ranked the highest at No. 6. They're also the only team that hasn't lost. With Baylor and Oklahoma remaining on the schedule, they also have the best opportunity to impress the committee over these last two games. 

Oklahoma might be the best team, though. As Joe Schad of ESPN notes, the Sooners are better than the Cowboys in various metrics:

Vegas seems to think that Oklahoma is the Big 12's best bet to make the playoff as well. RJ Bell of ESPN Radio projected Bob Stoops' squad as favorites over each of the three teams ahead of them right now:

Baylor is the forgotten contender here. Art Briles' squad is actually ranked seven spots ahead of Oklahoma State in terms of Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings. The game is a pick'em according to Odds Shark. 

If the Bears can win with any style points, they would be right back in the conversation and would once again become a difficult team for the committee to rank. 

Prediction: Oklahoma 42, TCU 28

Baylor 34, Oklahoma State 31

Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Ohio State has benefited from the name on their jerseys and the CFP National Championship banner it hung last season. The committee has been slow to give credit to teams that haven't played fellow elite teams, but the Buckeyes are sitting at No. 3 without a game against a team currently ranked in the Top 25. 

Clay Travis of Fox Sports 1 noted that fellow undefeated teams such as Iowa and Oklahoma State could argue strength of schedule with the Buckeyes. 

However, the defending champions will have something to hang their hats on by the end of Saturday. The No. 9 Spartans will roll into Columbus and give them an opportunity to pick up an emphatic win over a top-10 opponent. 

According to Odds Shark, Ohio State is expected to pass its first test of the season with flying colors. It is a 13-point favorite just two weeks removed from the Spartans losing to Nebraska. 

Because Urban Meyer's team did an outstanding job of improving on a weekly basis last season, it will continue to get the benefit of the doubt until that is no longer the case. With Michigan State losing some of its shine in recent weeks, the Buckeyes should make a statement here. 

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 24