Jaguars' Promising Young Offense Finally Has Chance to Make a Statement

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles may still be a developing young passer, but he’s quite skilled in one area: forgetting.

Quarterbacks need to forget quickly. They need to forget interceptions because dwelling on one poor read leads to a mental cloud that snowballs into more wayward balls. And they need to forget that throw behind a receiver because the process of repeating intricate mechanics doesn’t leave time for in-game scrutiny.

Bortles is skilled in the fine art of forgetting as the quarterback of a team that’s won only six games since the start of 2014. He has one of those Men in Black memory zapper things in his back pocket at all times.

Many of the Jaguars' losses in 2015 have been of the soul-crushing variety. Of the games they've dropped this season, five have come when they either led or were within a score during the fourth quarter. Overall, a 3-6 team has played in six games decided by a touchdown or less.

That’s why Bortles still has an optimistic outlook despite a record still three games below .500. His comments prior to a gifted win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10 still apply now.

“If you’re getting blown out every week, you have a lot to work on and a lot to improve,” he told John Oehser of Jaguars.com.

“When you’re as close as we are, I think it’s a small step away. I think it’s developing that consistency, and being able to do it week in and week out. It is frustrating, but we give ourselves through Monday. You have to be over it and ready to start game-planning on Tuesday.”

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He’s not wrong. The Jaguars are close, both on the field and—sadly—in the standings too. They play in a division where seven wins could secure a playoff berth. The dumpster-fire reality of the AFC South isn’t their concern. They just need to win more games than three other teams.

One of those teams is their opponent on Thursday night. In the first of four remaining divisional games, Jacksonville has an opportunity to make a statement in more than one way against the Tennessee Titans.

It can advance further into the playoff conversation by pulling to within a half-game of the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. Just as importantly, a young, blossoming offense can prove itself against one of the league’s top defenses.

The Jaguars' offensive success is rooted in Bortles’ growth, which has been gradual with plenty of crater-sized holes in a meandering road. Still, he’s made noticeable progress as a second-year quarterback, although interceptions are still a tolerated—and frequent—hiccup.

As former scout and NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah recently noted (h/t Big Cat Country), much of Bortles’ advancement has come in a fundamental area:

Bortles is the centerpiece of a unit that needs to take those last baby steps he spoke of, though exactly how many steps are needed remains to be seen.

The offense he leads has been inconsistent, but encouragement can be found in recent results and production. The Jaguars averaged only 15.5 points over their first four games, but that has jumped to 26 points in the five games since that early stretch.

Now they’ll face a Titans defense that enters Thursday night ranked fifth while giving up only 326.1 yards per game. Tennessee’s third-ranked passing defense has been especially tenacious and could present a problem for Bortles.

That depends, of course, on which Bortles shows up—or at least which version of him is present more often. Will it be the guy who’s averaged eight-plus yards per attempt in a game three times this season or the other guy who’s posted only two interception-free outings?

Bortles has made significant strides when we look at the broad picture and some of the basic though essential metrics by which all quarterbacks are judged.

Year	Yards/game	Yards/attempt	TD%	INT%	Rating
2015	264.6	6.7	5.3	3.1	81.0
2014	207.7	6.1	2.3	3.6	69.5

The 3 percent spike in the percentage of Bortles’ throws that have ended in touchdowns is massive, and the 0.5 percent drop in interceptions certainly isn’t nothing either.

He may still be among the league leaders in the latter category, but please remember that after nine games in 2014, the 23-year-old had chucked 15 interceptions. So his 11 entering Thursday is a modest improvement.

One number not shown in the table above is still sagging. Bortles has completed only 55.3 percent of his passes this season, and his inaccuracy has contributed to those balls landing in unfriendly hands. Once again, the theme of consistency—or a lack thereof—emerges.

In fairness to him, completing passes is hard when you’re fearing for the state of your limbs. Bortles has been pressured on 39 percent of his dropbacks in 2015. That’s resulted in three games in which he's taken five-plus sacks.

That is where the center of football sadness in Jacksonville still lies because wonderful things usually follow when Bortles does have time and demonstrates an ability to manage the pocket.

How wonderful? Well, is it good when a receiver and quarterback hook up for a touchdown in seven straight games?

Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns is in only his second season after going undrafted in 2014. Already over 25 career games, he’s scored 13 touchdowns, and he’s averaging 17.0 yards per reception this season. That ranks 12th out of the 118 receivers who have been on the field for at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps.

More importantly, Hurns lives in the deep area codes of football fields, where he’s successfully snatched 47.1 percent of the 20-plus-yard throws in his direction. He’s one of only two regular starters above 40 percent in that category.

Predictably, Bortles feels pretty confident when launching throws toward Hurns. And so he should because the story told by his passer rating on Hurns' targets is a delightful one, often with a happy ending:

Area of the field	Passer rating
20+ yards to the left	158.3
20+ yards to center	114.3
20+ yards to the right	81.5

The developing on-field bromance between Bortles and Hurns hasn’t come close to reaching its ceiling yet. We know that because one half of the pair is playing through an injury.

Hurns has been battling an abdomen issue for much of 2015 so far. He saw a specialist in Philadelphia and offseason surgery remains a possibility, according to Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union.

Having to imagine what life would be like with a healthy offense has been a normal existence for the Jaguars. The young, core building blocks extend beyond Bortles and Hurns, with that list also including wide receiver Marqise Lee, rookie running back T.J. Yeldon and tight end Julius Thomas. 

However, those three have already combined to miss 11 games.

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Thomas has accounted for four missed games after being a marquee offseason free-agent signing. He returned in Week 5, and at a still-spry 27 years old, the 6’5” red-zone behemoth is a veteran compared to Hurns (24) and fellow vertical threat Allen Robinson (22).

Hurns and Robinson have paired to record five 100-plus-yard receiving games, and they’ve each caught seven touchdown passes.

The average age of Jacksonville’s starting tight end, running back, receivers and quarterback is 23.6 years old. If we combined those five people into one incredibly talented and athletic football superhuman, our creation would be too young to really remember the 90s. That's a shame, because what a time that was to be alive with its laser-backdrop school pictures.

The Jaguars are brimming with youth, making the future a potentially bright place if growth stays steady on all fronts.

That’s the long-term goal, and playoff experience would accelerate the maturation of Jacksonville’s cornerstone skill players. The next step in getting there is still a small one, if you ask Bortles.

The Jaguars need to come together and play full, complete games every week, starting on Thursday in a litmus test against the Titans.

Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.