Williams Are Not Ready for a Championship Fight with Mercedes in 2016
Felipe Massa may have been disqualified from Sunday's Brazilian Grand Prix, but Valtteri Bottas finished fifth and clinched third place in the Formula One Constructors' Championship for the Williams team. That matches their finish in the overall standings last year—Williams' best result since a second-place finish in 2003, during their BMW partnership.
The team's resurgence is a curious and fascinating case. Williams have shown moments of brilliance (qualifying in Austria last season, for example, or the first half of this year's British Grand Prix), but are they truly "back"—on their way to winning races and challenging for championships again?
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It is something I have written about several times since last year, but as we approach the end of 2015, what do the numbers tell us? Are Williams closing the gap to Mercedes and their other competitors?
After the 2014 Brazilian Grand Prix, Williams had scored 254 points and seven podium finishes. This year, despite just four podium finishes, the team has 257 points. Bottas and Massa will not match last year's final total of 320 points, but that number was boosted by the much-derided awarding of double points for the season finale in Abu Dhabi, where the Williams team-mates finished second and third.
On the surface, then, Williams have not made a big jump this year, but they haven't regressed either. Still, individual race results demonstrate that there is still a long way to go before they can mount a serious challenge against Mercedes, and even Ferrari.
After the Brazilian Grand Prix, per a team press release, Bottas acknowledged as much, saying:
"I am so proud of the team to get P3 in the constructors’. We are competing against teams that are much bigger than us, and in some cases beating them, which is really cool. The guys at the track and in the factory have done really well this year, so a massive thank you must go to them and also to Mercedes HPP for a really strong power unit. We want to win though, so next year we must continue to make that step forward.
"
To get an idea of the gap that still exists between Williams and Mercedes, let's examine some recent results (between Williams' top driver and the race winner).
In Brazil, Bottas finished more than a lap behind race winner Nico Rosberg. Last year in Sao Paolo, Massa was the top Williams car, and he finished 41 seconds behind Rosberg, who won that race as well.
At the Russian Grand Prix this year, Bottas was about 27 seconds behind Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton and headed for the podium before his Williams FW37 was punted off the track by Kimi Raikkonen. At the 2014 Russian Grand Prix, Bottas finished third, 17 seconds behind the winner: Hamilton.
The Mexican and American races between Russia and Brazil don't provide relevant points of comparison, as Mexico was not on the calendar last year and both Williams drivers retired early in the 2015 United States Grand Prix. Likewise, last year's Japanese Grand Prix included two starts, both behind the safety car, and an early finish after Jules Bianchi's crash, so its results do not provide a meaningful comparison to this year's race.
Looking further back, Bottas finished 34 seconds adrift of Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel in Singapore this year, which compares favourably to Massa's finish 42 seconds behind Hamilton in 2014. It should be noted, though, that both races had a safety car period just past the halfway point, but the 2014 race had three extra laps of racing after the safety car for Hamilton to extend the gap.
In Italy this year, Massa finished third, 47 seconds behind Hamilton. He was also third last year, but 25 seconds behind Hamilton's Mercedes.
Finally, at this season's Belgian Grand Prix, Massa was 55 seconds behind Hamilton at the end of the race. Last year, Bottas finished 28 seconds behind Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo after the Mercs collided on Lap 2, compromising both of their races (it is safe to assume the gap would have been bigger had the Mercs been able to sprint away, as usual).
We won't go through every race, but the point is that Williams are not exactly nipping at Mercedes' heels. If they were truly gearing up for a championship run in 2016, you would expect their results to look something like, say, Ferrari's.
Qualifying results also illustrate the gap that still remains between Williams and the Silver Arrows.
| Australia | +3.848 | +1.391 |
| Malaysia | +3.419 (Q2) | +2.639 |
| China | +2.287 | +1.172 |
| Bahrain | +1.062 | +0.810 |
| Spain | +1.400 | +1.013 |
| Monaco | +1.728 (Q2) | +1.807 (Q2) |
| Canada | +0.676 | +0.709 |
| Austria | -0.185 | +0.737 |
| Great Britain | +4.938 (Q1) | +0.837 |
| Hungary | +0.639 | +1.202 |
| Belgium | +2.458 | +1.340 |
| Italy | +0.588 | +0.543 |
| Singapore | +0.319 | +1.791 |
| Japan | +0.622 | +0.440 |
| Russia | +0.407 | +0.799 |
| Brazil | +0.224 | +0.803 |
As you can see, the top Williams driver has qualified closer to the pole-sitter than he did in 2014 at nine of 16 races this year (highlighted in yellow). However, five of those nine races are the first five of the season, where Williams generally had dismal qualifying results in 2014. It is no surprise they improved there.
But in the last 11 races on the chart (the U.S. is excluded because qualifying was cancelled this year), Williams were only closer to the pole time at four of them. And only once all season has the team been within half-a-second of pole.
Again, there is much work to do before Williams is in the championship conversation.
Another third-place finish in the Constructors' Championship is a great result for Williams. It will help them financially and establishes them firmly in the upper tier of the grid, but it does not look like a precursor to a wheel-to-wheel battle with Mercedes. Even a rejuvenated Ferrari looks out of Williams' reach for next season, with F1's relatively stable regulations.
Deputy team principal Claire Williams said last year, in an interview with the official F1 website, that Williams were aiming for a title challenge in 2016. That was too ambitious, although following finishes of ninth, eighth and ninth in the constructors' standings, her excitement and overoptimism can easily be forgiven.
But a third straight season in third place—and the attendant financial benefits—would set Williams up nicely for 2017, when the sport will introduce significant changes to the technical regulations. At that time, there may be an opportunity to make a significant jump relative to Mercedes.
In the meantime, of course, Williams have to ensure no one jumps them.
All timing statistics are taken from the FIA's official data.
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