NASCAR at Phoenix 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for the Quicken Loans 500
Other than next week’s season-ending and championship-deciding race, no other race this season carries more significance in the Chase for the Sprint Cup than Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500.
It’ll be on the one-mile flat track at Phoenix International Raceway that we finally learn what three drivers will join Jeff Gordon to fight it out for the championship next Sunday, Nov. 22, at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
So much rests on where each driver finishes at Phoenix, including the fates of Joey Logano and Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski. Can both bounce back to qualify for Homestead?
There’s a lot riding on the line for the two teammates, not the least of which is they are the only two Ford-powered drivers remaining in the Chase.
If both fail to reach Homestead, it would be Ford Championship Weekend and the Ford 400 Sprint Cup finale, without a Ford driver in the championship mix.
There are plenty of other storylines and drivers to pay attention to, so let’s get to it.
By the Numbers: Phoenix International Raceway
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Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500
Place: Phoenix International Raceway
Date: Sunday, Nov. 15
Time: 2:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBC, 2 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 312 laps, 312 miles
Defending winner: Kevin Harvick is not just the defending winner of this race, he’s won the last four races that have been held at Phoenix, dating back to the 2013 Chase race and continuing through this year’s early-season race there.
Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on November 13, 2005 (20 years, 6 months, 11 days)
Oldest winner: Mark Martin on April 18, 2009 (50 years, 3 months, 9 days).
Youngest pole winner: Kyle Busch on April 22, 2006 (20 years, 11 months, 20 days).
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on March 3, 2013 (54 years, 1 month, 22 days).
Most wins: all-time and active—Kevin Harvick (7)
Most poles: all-time and active—Ryan Newman (4)
Most top-fives: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (14)
Most top-10s: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (23)
Lead-lap finishes: all-time—Mark Martin (30); active—Jeff Gordon (25)
Laps completed: all-time—Mark Martin (10,477); active—Jeff Gordon (10,137)
Laps led: all-time and active—Kevin Harvick (1,202)
Most race starts at Phoenix: all-time—Mark Martin (34); active—Jeff Gordon (33)
Race record: Tony Stewart (118.132 mph) on Nov. 7, 1999
Qualifying record: Joey Logano (142.141 mph) on Nov. 7, 2014
Best average start: all-time—Rusty Wallace (8.053); active—Jeff Gordon (10.788)
Best average finish: all-time—Alan Kulwicki (5.200); active—Jimmie Johnson (7.833)
TRACK NOTES:
* Total number of races at Phoenix: 38
* Total number of different pole winners in Phoenix history: 21
* Races won from pole: 5
* Last race won from pole: Kevin Harvick on March 15, 2015
* Number of race winners at Phoenix: 23
* DNFs (most): all-time and active—Joe Nemechek (9 in 28 starts)
* DNFs (least): all-time and active—Kevin Harvick (0 in 25 starts)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations
Key Storylines
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Can Joey Logano rally back: After sweeping all three races in Round 2 of the Chase, Logano is in the exact opposite position heading into Phoenix. He is the only driver in a must-win situation. He cannot advance to Homestead on points alone. Logano has an average record at Phoenix, where he has never won before. While he’s going to do everything he can, will it be enough?
Can Kevin Harvick make it five in a row? Kevin Harvick has been the most dominant driver of late at Phoenix, having won the last four Sprint Cup races there, five of the last six and seven overall, the most of any active driver. To his credit, he won last year’s Chase race—he was in a must-win situation, too—which propelled him into the championship race the following week at Homestead. Can he do it again Sunday?
Will fate go against Harvick? Yes, we already covered Harvick’s record at PIR. But there’s one very unique thing that has occurred in this year’s Chase that could also cause him to fall short of Homestead, namely, fate. Consider the following: Jimmie Johnson went into Dover with 10 career wins, most of any active driver. Almost everyone thought it would be a slam dunk for the six-time champ to advance to Round 2. Unfortunately, Johnson did not advance and was eliminated (and, ironically enough, Harvick wound up winning that race).
Let’s move to the elimination race of Round 2 at Talladega. Dale Earnhardt Jr. came into the race with six wins there, the most of any active driver. Again, it looked like a slam dunk that Junior would win and move on to Round 3. Unfortunately, when Harvick wrecked Trevor Bayne on the green-white-checkered restart, Earnhardt fell short and was eliminated. Now, is it Harvick’s turn?
What does Jeff Gordon do: Jeff Gordon is comfortably in the championship round at Homestead, courtesy of his win at Martinsville two weeks ago. He can very easily coast through this week and preserve himself for next week.
But that’s never been the four-time champion’s modus operandi. He’s a true racer: If he’s in a race, he’s in it to win it. And if Gordon wins Sunday, not only will it give him added momentum and confidence heading to Homestead, it will also serve to potentially eliminate a Chase driver on points who may have needed a win to reach Homestead, someone like Brad Keselowski or Carl Edwards.
What does Joe Gibbs Racing do: Now that Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth are both eliminated—not to mention Kenseth will be serving the second race of his two-race suspension—Joe Gibbs Racing’s fortunes rest in the hands of Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards. Can both of them manage to go forward, or will one be eliminated (if not both)? It’s kind of the same situation for Stewart-Haas Racing (Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch) and Penske Racing (Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski).
Drivers to Watch
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Denny Hamlin: If it’s a short track, Hamlin is always a threat to win at it. And Phoenix certainly falls into that category. He’s already won there once (spring race in 2012). He doesn’t have to worry about points or championships or standings. All he has to do is put his foot to the floor and go for the checkered flag. It doesn’t get much simpler than that. Plus, Hamlin has incentive: to win not just for himself, but also for suspended teammate Matt Kenseth. Because if Hamlin wins, Joey Logano will be eliminated from advancing to the final round.
Austin Dillon: While everyone has been focusing on the Chasers, Austin Dillon has quietly been accumulating some decent finishes of late. In his last five starts, Dillon has finishes of seventh, 41st, 14th, 18th and 11th. Dillon grew up on short tracks and was a career-best 15th at Phoenix earlier this year. Keep your eye on the No. 3.
Greg Biffle: The Washington state native has definitely underperformed this season. He’s tied career lows for wins (none) and top-fives (just three), and has just four top-10s in total, the worst he’s ever amassed in his 14 seasons in Sprint Cup racing. That being said, Biffle has a less-than-stellar record at Phoenix in his career. But what better place to surprise a lot of folks—and to potentially be someone who could impact which driver(s) make or don’t make the championship round—than at Phoenix?
Kyle Larson: Still in pursuit of his first career Sprint Cup win, Larson has flown well under the radar in his sophomore season in NASCAR’s premier series. Unlike his rookie season in 2014, Larson really hasn’t had many highlights from 2015. He still has two races left to earn that elusive first win, and Phoenix is likely the better of the two to afford him the best chance to break through and end up in Victory Lane.
Two drivers NOT to watch—Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick: I’ve picked one or both drivers several times this season, to the point where some readers joked about it. Well, this is no joke this time: I don’t see either Stewart or Patrick doing much in Sunday’s race. Sure, it’d be great to say Patrick will do well because she lives in the Phoenix area or that she’s shown confidence on short tracks, but I’m not.
It would also be great to say Stewart will do well because he’s a former winner at Phoenix. But that win came 16 years ago. Frankly, I expect both Stewart and Patrick to finish where they typically have finished much of this season: between 20th and 30th. Okay, readers, I give up!
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Favorites
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Jeff Gordon: He doesn’t have to even have to show up Sunday if he doesn't want to. But that’s never been Jeff Gordon. Every time he climbs into a race car, he is in pursuit of the checkered flag. As I’ve already said, if Gordon wins at Phoenix (where he’s won twice in his career), it would give him confidence and momentum to carry over into the championship race at Homestead. Right now, he’s the odds-on favorite to win the championship and retire on top.
Kurt Busch: He may be in seventh place in the standings, 34 points behind Jeff Gordon, but Kurt Busch is definitely someone who can win at Phoenix. Like his younger brother, Kyle, Kurt spent his career growing up and racing on short tracks like Phoenix. They’re his first love. And with all that’s on the line Sunday, Busch can race with just one goal in mind: to win. Sure, he can still sneak into the final four by points (although he’d need a lot of help that guys ahead of him heading to Phoenix have failures or wrecks there). But why worry about points when he can assure a trip to the final four with a win.
Kyle Busch: The younger Busch brother has never gotten this close in any prior Chase, either under the new format (last year) or the previous format. He’s had nothing short of a miraculous comeback after the devastating crash at Daytona in February. If anyone deserves to reach Homestead, it’s Kyle. But can he handle the pressure, given his past track record of falling short in past Chases? That’s the biggest question of all.
Kevin Harvick: Even though I still think Harvick’s run of success at Phoenix—four straight wins—will come to an end Sunday, there’s no way not to make him a favorite. Harvick has a long history at PIR. It’s where he essentially grew up racing, long before his Sprint Cup career began, and he knows virtually every inch of the one-mile flat track. But all good things must come to an end. Will that be the case for Harvick? Or will he be able to keep his momentum going and head to Homestead to attempt to defend last year’s championship?
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: It’s been over a decade since Dale Earnhardt Jr. won at Phoenix. In fact, he won back-to-back races there in 2003 and 2004 (back when PIR only hosted one Cup race per season). Given how he was eliminated after Talladega, Earnhardt could very well be a surprise spoiler at Phoenix and prevent one or more of the remaining Chasers from advancing to Homestead. If so, it would be some sort of way to avenge what happened to his own Chase hopes.
Dark Horse Pick: Kyle Larson
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It’s been a rough sophomore season for Kyle Larson. After an excellent Rookie of the Year season in 2014, he’s struggled far too much in 2015 for a driver with his talent.
But he still has two races to make a statement, and Sunday at Phoenix gives him the best opportunity. Harkening back to his short-track racing roots, Larson could surprise a lot of people with a win at Phoenix.
But he wouldn’t surprise me. I’ve been predicting that he’d win his first career Sprint Cup race this season. Phoenix will the kind of race that Larson could use to begin momentum for 2016. He finished 13th in last year’s Chase race at Phoenix (no thanks to Ryan Newman, who put Larson into the wall so that Newman could move on to the final race at Homestead) and was 10th in this year’s spring race there.
Keep your eyes on the No. 42 Chevrolet this Sunday.
And the Winner Is: Jimmie Johnson
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I picked Kurt Busch to win last week, but believe me, Jimmie Johnson was a close second choice.
And after Johnson won at Texas, it shows he’s still in it to win it, even though it’s just for individual race wins, not the Chase, which he was eliminated from after the first round.
Sure, Kevin Harvick has won the last four races at Phoenix and seven overall, but all streaks must come to an end, and his ends Sunday.
And let’s not forget: Before Harvick became the dominator at Phoenix, Johnson amassed four wins there, including three in a row in 2007 and 2008. Look for the No. 48 in Victory Lane on Sunday.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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