Pac-12 Football: Bowl Projections for Every Team
With just three weeks left in the regular season and the all-important conference championship weekend, the bowl picture is starting to come into focus for teams all across the country.
While other conferences stick to the "pool" or "tier" system of sending bowl-bound teams to their destinations, the Pac-12 has a clear pecking order, as shown by this helpful chart from the Bear Insider.
This makes projecting bowl games for the Pac-12 more of an exact science than, say, the SEC or the Big Ten, but there are still several weeks of action that could shake up the standings.
Here are the current bowl projections for each Pac-12 team. Final records have been determined by my personal—and way-too-early—predictions of all future matchups on the schedule. Each bowl game has a list of potential opponents too based on other conferences' current and projected standings.
Where do you see your favorite Pac-12 team bowling this season? Let me know in the comments below.
Oregon State and Colorado: Staying Home
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The Pac-12 could have as many as 10 bowl-eligible teams this season, and it looks like Oregon State and Colorado are going to be the ones staying home for the holidays.
Oregon State is mathematically out of the running for bowl eligibility after picking up its seventh loss of the season—and sixth loss in a row—in last Saturday's 41-0 rout against UCLA. In order to have an outside shot at possibly being an emergency fill-in at 5-7, the Beavers would have to beat Cal, Washington and Oregon. Sorry, Beavers.
Colorado is a different case at 4-6 right now. The Buffs have three remaining regular-season games thanks to that early-season trip to Hawaii, and they'll need two upset wins out of USC, Washington State and Utah. With their only conference win this season coming against Oregon State, that doesn't look likely.
Arizona and/or Washington: Replacement Bowl
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With California and Arizona each sporting five wins and Washington and Arizona State both holding on to 4-5 records, there's a logjam right now at the bottom of the bowl hopefuls in the Pac-12.
Right now, Arizona just needs one win in order to become bowl-eligible. However, the banged-up Wildcats must pull off either a home upset of Utah this weekend or a rivalry win at Arizona State. The process is much simpler for Arizona, but it's not easier by any means, as both matchups will be tough.
Washington, at 4-5, needs to pick up two wins from a trio of games—at Arizona State, at Oregon State and vs. Washington State in the Apple Cup. Oregon State looks like a win, but even with their stingy defense and home-field advantage, the Huskies will face a tough matchup against the rival Cougars' Air Raid attack.
Either Arizona or Washington, at 6-6, would be at the bottom of the bowl-eligible teams in the Pac-12. With the Pac-12's six non-playoff or New Year's Six bids claimed in the following slides, the Wildcats and the Huskies would be candidates to be replacements for conferences that couldn't fill their slots.
The most likely replacement candidates include the Big Ten's bids to the Armed Forces and Heart of Dallas Bowls, along with Army's reserved spot in the Poinsettia Bowl down in San Diego. The Poinsettia Bowl would probably love to take a Pac-12 team in the Black Knights' place.
Possible Destinations: Armed Forces Bowl, Heart of Dallas Bowl, Poinsettia Bowl
Arizona State: Cactus Bowl
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Arizona State is currently riding a three-game losing streak, but the Sun Devils have been competitive in all three of those defeats. They get back-to-back winnable home games against Washington and Arizona before capping the regular season at California.
The Sun Devils need two of those three wins, and they'll get that done to close out the season. With home wins over Arizona and Washington, they'd also be lined up to take the Pac-12's final tie-in at the Cactus Bowl against a member of the Big 12.
This bowl is normally played in Arizona State's home stadium, but renovation plans caused it to be relocated back to one of its former sites at Chase Field in Phoenix. The Sun Devils could easily sell tickets to this in-state bowl, as the stadium is just 10 miles away from their campus in Tempe.
It's not the most exciting bowl destination in the world for Arizona State, but it'd be a lot better than missing the postseason entirely. The Sun Devils would have a fun, offensive-minded matchup with a Big 12 foe right down the road from their house.
Possible Opponents: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas State
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California: Las Vegas Bowl
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At 5-4 with a home game against Oregon State remaining, California seems like a lock to get back to a bowl for the first time in four seasons.
My projections have California defeating both Oregon State and Arizona State at home, giving it a 7-5 record. The Golden Bears' loss to Oregon would prevent them from moving up another spot in the standings in the event of a tie.
At seventh in the conference, Cal's return to the postseason would take it to Las Vegas—exactly 10 years after Jeff Tedford's team won this bowl game. This time around, the Golden Bears would most likely face the winner of the Mountain West Conference.
All signs point to Boise State claiming another title in the MWC, but San Diego State could spoil things. The Aztecs, who lost to Cal earlier this season, have won five straight and have an easy schedule heading into a potential title game with Boise. If SDSU pulls off the shocker, the Las Vegas Bowl might get BYU over the Hawaii Bowl to avoid a rematch from this season.
Possible Opponents: Boise State, BYU, slight chance of San Diego State
Oregon: Sun Bowl
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Oregon is starting to find its groove again on the offensive side of the ball, and it should have no problem picking up another win against Oregon State later this month.
Defensively, the Ducks still don't inspire much confidence, which could be a big problem in their upcoming matchups against Stanford and USC. Right now, Oregon is 96th nationally in the defensive S&P+ ratings from Football Study Hall.
Even if Oregon picks up another win along the way, either by shocking Stanford on the road this weekend or knocking off USC at home, it would have to finish with a better record than Washington State in order to get to a better bowl game. If both pull off eight wins, Oregon still draws the Sun Bowl.
The Sun Bowl matchup would pit Oregon against one of the higher-end bowl teams out of the ACC, and almost every projection out there has first-year head coach Pat Narduzzi taking his Pittsburgh team to El Paso, Texas. It's sure to be a clash of styles for the Ducks if they land in the Sun Bowl.
Possible Opponents: Pittsburgh, Miami (Florida), Duke
Washington State: Foster Farms Bowl
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With six wins right now and a tiebreaker over Oregon, Washington State is in a great position to get a good mid-tier bowl after what has been a constantly entertaining season for the Cougars.
Washington State might not have enough to knock off UCLA in the Rose Bowl this weekend, but it should take care of business next weekend at home against Colorado. The Cougars could pick up an eighth win on the road in the Apple Cup, and head coach Mike Leach's team will get that done with red-hot Luke Falk at quarterback.
An 8-4 Washington State team would draw the Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara, California—a game the Pac-12 has won against the Big Ten for each of the last three years.
Leach would bring his own style of high-scoring and massive-yardage football into Levi's Stadium against a higher-end Big Ten opponent. A number of teams fit into this possible range, from a traditional power like Penn State to a rising program such as Indiana.
Possible Opponents: Penn State, Northwestern, Indiana
UCLA: Holiday Bowl
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A 7-2 UCLA team has three intriguing matchups to close out its regular season. First, the Bruins must take care of Washington State inside the Rose Bowl—which isn't a given by any stretch.
Then UCLA must travel to Utah and USC. While the Bruins have gotten back on track after their midseason stumble, both of those opponents have momentum and home-field advantage for these matchups. I'm picking Utah to defeat UCLA and for a highly motivated USC team to end its losing streak against its crosstown rival.
At 8-4, UCLA would land in the Holiday Bowl, which has been a popular spot for the Bruins in other outlets' most recent projections. The Bruins would be able to stay in-state and draw one of the Big Ten's higher-ranked schools for a good game.
The Bruins would've had their sights set on bigger and better games earlier in the season, but the Holiday Bowl would be a nice spotlight for true freshman Josh Rosen and running back Paul Perkins to showcase their skills in what is currently the nation's No. 18 offense.
Possible Opponents: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan
USC: Alamo Bowl
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USC's second-half surge under interim head coach Clay Helton is showing no signs of slowing down this week as the Trojans head into a road game against Colorado on Friday. After that, USC heads to Oregon for a big-time matchup before hosting UCLA in the Coliseum.
As noted on the previous slides, USC should keep up that momentum and continue to show why it was such a highly ranked team at the beginning of the season. The talented Trojans have an excellent shot at finishing 9-3 and falling just short of a possible Pac-12 title berth.
This would put USC as the top Pac-12 team not in a New Year's Six bowl—although the Trojans have huge name value and a win over Utah, the Utes would still most likely get in thanks to their overall record.
Here, USC lands in the Alamo Bowl against the top Big 12 team that didn't get into the playoff or New Year's Six picture. With the way the conference could cannibalize itself, this could feature a number of currently ranked teams. The Alamo Bowl would be one of the biggest standard bowls, with USC taking on a tough team in the heart of Big 12 country.
Possible Opponents: TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Utah: Rose Bowl
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While Utah may have slipped up against USC, the Utes are in good position to stay strong in the race for the Pac-12 title and perhaps a outside shot at the College Football Playoff with one loss.
Utah gets to host its toughest opponent left on the regular-season schedule, UCLA, and it also has favorable matchups against Arizona and Colorado. Now that the Utes have found their footing again, I like them to get into the Pac-12 Championship Game and lose a highly competitive matchup against Stanford.
Even with two losses, Utah would be in perfect position to take the Pac-12's coveted Rose Bowl spot.
This year's Rose Bowl seems destined to feature Iowa, which will most likely finish 12-1 with its lone loss in the Big Ten Championship Game. Utah would take on the Hawkeyes in a matchup of two of the season's most unlikely playoff contenders. Take that, Rose Bowl tradition and blue-blood programs.
Possible Opponents: Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan
Stanford: Orange Bowl (CFP Semifinal)
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Stanford slipped up at the beginning of the year in a bizarre time slot against a Northwestern team that played some lights-out defense in the season's first half. Since then, the Cardinal have played well on both sides of the ball, avoided trap losses and put themselves in playoff range.
The Cardinal's final three regular-season games are all at home, and while Notre Dame is a strong threat—especially on offense—Stanford should roll into the Pac-12 title game with a 11-1 record. After dispatching Utah, the committee would most likely put a team that knocked off one of its early favorites in Notre Dame and has a power-conference title into the playoff.
I've projected Stanford into the No. 4 seed here, and the most likely No. 1 team at this point would be Clemson. As Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer noted, the top seed is set to get the semifinal venue that makes better sense geographically, putting Clemson in Miami for the Orange Bowl.
If Clemson somehow falls between now and the end of the season, current No. 2 Alabama would also be better suited for an Orange Bowl. Ohio State might even get that draw as well, meaning the Cardinal would be taking their talents to South Beach for New Year's Eve.
Possible Opponents: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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