Will Winning Out Be Enough to Keep Notre Dame in the Top 4?
SOUTH BEND, Ind.—A convincing win over the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday bumped the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to 8-1 and, three days later, earned the Irish the No. 4 ranking in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
The locker-room celebration, though, was brief.
“Ten seconds, a Snapchat video, I’m telling you,” Irish senior captain Sheldon Day said of the short-lived “chaos.”
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Now, Notre Dame’s attention turns to the final three regular-season games, beginning with Saturday’s home finale against Wake Forest at Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish then square off against Boston College at Fenway Park and close the campaign at Stanford over Thanksgiving weekend.
Even if the Irish win these final three games, it is not completely clear that it will be enough to keep Notre Dame within the top four and in playoff position.
| 1. Clemson | 9-0 |
| 2. Alabama | 8-1 |
| 3. Ohio State | 9-0 |
| 4. Notre Dame | 8-1 |
| 5. Iowa | 9-0 |
| 6. Baylor | 8-0 |
| 7. Stanford | 8-1 |
| 8. Oklahoma State | 9-0 |
| 9. LSU | 7-1 |
| 10. Utah | 8-1 |
| 11. Florida | 8-1 |
| 12. Oklahoma | 8-1 |
| 13. Michigan State | 8-1 |
| 14. Michigan | 7-2 |
| 15. TCU | 8-1 |
| 16. Florida State | 7-2 |
| 17. Mississippi State | 7-2 |
| 18. Northwestern | 7-2 |
| 19. UCLA | 7-2 |
| 20. Navy | 7-1 |
| 21. Memphis | 8-1 |
| 22. Temple | 8-1 |
| 23. North Carolina | 8-1 |
| 24. Houston | 9-0 |
| 25. Wisconsin | 8-2 |
Remaining schedules make this a difficult call.
The top-ranked Clemson Tigers are 9-0 and boast wins over the Irish and No. 16 Florida State. The Tigers visit the Syracuse Orange (3-6) this weekend, host Wake Forest (3-6) on Nov. 21 and wrap up the regular season at South Carolina (3-6). In a potential ACC title game, Clemson could face North Carolina, Pittsburgh or Duke.
The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide check in at 8-1, with the lone loss a 43-37 setback to the Ole Miss Rebels (now unranked and 7-3) at home in September. The Crimson Tide just toppled the LSU Tigers, 30-16, on Saturday night. Alabama closes with No. 17 Mississippi State (7-2) on the road, home against Charleston Southern (8-1, FCS) and at Auburn (5-4). Should Alabama win the SEC West, it likely could face No. 11 Florida (8-1) in the SEC title game.
The third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are 9-0, but after this weekend’s visit to Illinois to face the Fighting Illini (5-4), they face No. 13 Michigan State (8-1) and No. 14 Michigan (7-2). If they can handle that testy finish, the Buckeyes would advance to the Big Ten Championship, where the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-0) or Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) are the top contenders to represent the West.
The Hawkeyes, up to No. 5 in this week’s ranking, close with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-5), Purdue Boilermakers (2-7) and Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-6), with only the finale on the road.
Then we get to the slew of Big 12 teams all slashing each other like the various news outlets in Anchorman. The No. 6 Baylor Bears (8-0) still face the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (8-1), No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0), No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) and Texas Longhorns (4-5) with the middle two on the road.
The Cowboys are 9-0 and must navigate Baylor and Oklahoma in the final two weeks.
The Sooners and Horned Frogs, both 8-1, are on the periphery for now, but Oklahoma has three prime opportunities (at Baylor, TCU, at Oklahoma State). TCU closes at Oklahoma and home against the Bears after facing the winless Kansas Jayhawks (0-9) on Nov. 14.
Nothing is guaranteed in the final weeks. Notre Dame isn’t certain to win out. Neither is Clemson, despite a trio of 3-6 opponents and a weaker ACC Coastal Division.
But let’s hypothesize and present some possibilities.
What if Clemson slips once? Likely still in?
How about if Ohio State and Iowa both finish with one loss, with the Hawkeyes topping the Buckeyes but Ohio State handling Michigan State and Michigan?
And—perhaps the most worrisome possibility for Notre Dame fans—what if Baylor or Oklahoma State adds a few marquee wins down the stretch and finishes undefeated?
In other words, there are scenarios where the current top three hold their spots while other teams, such as Notre Dame, a Big 12 contender or Iowa, jockey for the final position.
Rankings and resumes, of course, will change. For now, Notre Dame has wins over No. 20 Navy and No. 22 Temple. Those teams could continue climbing or fall out of the Top 25, marginally helping or hurting the Irish resume.
But if Notre Dame handles offensively challenged Wake Forest and Boston College and stamps its season with a road win against Stanford, currently slotted seventh, Brian Kelly’s message to College Football Playoff chairman Jeff Long sounds like this: We lost one game. By two points. To potentially top-ranked Clemson. On the road.
And with potential wins over Stanford, USC, Temple, Pitt and Navy to boot, Notre Dame’s case appears strong, even if Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State maintain their footing and a surging Big 12 team comes throttling forward.
All quotes were obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Mike Monaco is the lead Notre Dame writer for Bleacher Report. Follow @MikeMonaco on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
