Snubs, Predictions After 2015 MLB Awards Finalists Announced
And so it is down to three—as in, three players battling for each of baseball's eight big awards.
We're talking Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young and MVP awards in each league. Yes, there's other hardware to be had. But those prizes, which are handed out annually by the voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, remain the gold standard.
And, with the announcement of the finalists for each award on Tuesday, we have a clearer picture of who will earn the honors.
In this case, "finalist" is a bit misleading, since the ballots were tallied before the postseason began. Really, what we've got are the top three vote-getters, in no particular order.
The winners will be rolled out in the coming days, culminating with the MVPs on Nov. 19. While we wait, let's make some updated predictions on who'll take home each trophy, based on stats, recent history and a dusting of gut feeling.
And no awards discussion would be complete without examining the inevitable snubs. This year's finalists feature all the obvious candidates and few—if any—egregious omissions, but there's always room to quibble. That's part of the fun.
As ever, feel free to sound off with your quibbles in the comments, and proceed when ready.
AL Rookie of the Year
1 of 8
Finalists
Carlos Correa, SS (HOU)
Francisco Lindor, SS (CLE)
Miguel Sano, DH (MIN)
Snubs
This is really a two-horse race between Correa and Lindor, so the only possible snub here would be in the third-place slot.
A case could be made for Oakland A's outfielder Billy Burns, who hit .294 and stole 26 bases in 125 games. But Sano, who clubbed 18 home runs and posted a .916 OPS for the overachieving Minnesota Twins, is a worthy honorable mention.
Prediction
Correa has the edge in home runs (22 to 12) and OPS (.857 to .835), while Lindor had a better batting average (.313 to .279).
Lindor also has a noteworthy advantage with the leather. His 10 defensive runs saved (DRS) and 10.5 ultimate zone rating (UZR) blow away Correa's marks of zero and minus-six, respectively. That's especially significant since both players are shortstops, making it a full apples-to-apples comparison.
Still, power is a precious commodity in today's pitching-dominated MLB. Plus, Correa's Houston Astros made the playoffs, while Lindor's Cleveland Indians did not, a factor BBWAA voters frequently consider, fair or not.
This one should be close, and Lindor might be slightly more deserving. But we'll bet on Correa, based on the dingers and Houston's surprise postseason berth.
NL Rookie of the Year
2 of 8
Finalists
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF (CHC)
Matt Duffy, 3B (SF)
Jung Ho Kang, INF (PIT)
Snubs
Bryant will walk away with this award (more on that in a moment), but there was some legit competition for the second- and third-place slots.
Duffy was one of the biggest surprises of 2015. The slender San Francisco Giants infielder went from fringe roster candidate to a more-than-credible Pablo Sandoval replacement, posting a .295/.334/.428 slash line. And Kang translated his success in the Korean league to MLB, clubbing 15 home runs with an .816 OPS for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Still, one of those slots could easily have gone to flame-throwing New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard. And Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco (.840 OPS) and the Chicago Cubs' Kyle Schwarber (.842 OPS) belong in the discussion as well.
Prediction
It'll be Bryant by a landslide. His 6.5 WAR was the 12th-highest in baseball, per FanGraphs, and he led or tied for the lead among rookies in doubles (31), home runs (26) and RBI (99).
Plus, he played all over the diamond, capably logging time at third base, first base and all three outfield positions.
We all heard about how good this kid was going to be, and then he showed up and was as advertised. Here's the fun part: He's just getting started.
AL Manager of the Year
3 of 8
Finalists
Jeff Banister (TEX)
A.J. Hinch (HOU)
Paul Molitor (MIN)
Snubs
This was easily the most wide-open of any awards race. In addition to Banister and Hinch, you can make an argument for each of the other managers whose teams qualified for the postseason.
The Kansas City Royals won their first division title since 1985 behind Ned Yost. John Gibbons helped the Toronto Blue Jays end a 22-year postseason drought. And Joe Girardi got the New York Yankees back to the October dance for the first time since 2012, which counts as a drought in the Bronx.
But it's tough to argue against Banister, Hinch and Molitor, each of whom skippered their squads to dramatically better-than-expected finishes, which BBWAA voters tend to appreciate.
Prediction
This could go to any of the finalists, and it'd be no great shock.
But if you stipulate that the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins were all near-consensus picks to miss the playoffs, you have to give the edge to Banister, since the Rangers won the AL West while the 'Stros settled for a wild card and the Twins faded down the stretch to finish a distant second in the AL Central.
.png?w=256)
NL Manager of the Year
4 of 8
Finalists
Terry Collins (NYM)
Joe Maddon (CHC)
Mike Matheny (STL)
Snubs
Collins steered the New York Mets past the heavily favored Washington Nationals in the NL East. Matheny's St. Louis Cardinals weathered injuries to their ace and key members of the lineup to lead MLB in wins. And Maddon's Cubs won 97 games, a total they've matched just once since 1946.
Yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers won a third straight division title behind (the now-departed) Don Mattingly, and Clint Hurdle ushered the Bucs to a third consecutive wild-card slot. But it's nearly impossible to disagree with this top three.
Prediction
Collins and Matheny are worthy candidates, but this is Maddon's award to lose.
Sure, the fresh-faced Cubbies are loaded with talent. But with so many rookies in key positions, it was worth wondering if this was their year. Not quite, as it turns out, if by "their year" you mean busting Chicago's historic championship drought.
But in the regular season, no one mixed, matched and maximized his talent better than the Cubs' bespectacled skipper.
"Forget the magician in the clubhouse, the petting zoo on the field and the onesies on the plane," Steve Rosenbloom of the Chicago Tribune wrote prior to the playoffs. "What matters is how a team plays, and Maddon coaxed, demanded and worked his own magic..."
AL Cy Young Award
5 of 8
Finalists
Sonny Gray, RHP (OAK)
Dallas Keuchel, LHP (HOU)
David Price, LHP (TOR/DET)
Snubs
Keuchel and Price are the no-duh top two, but the third spot was something of a toss-up. Gray finished third in the AL in ERA (2.73) and tied for second in opponents' batting average (.217), so perhaps it's fitting that he's playing third banana here as well.
The Chicago White Sox's Chris Sale and Tampa Bay Rays' Chris Archer finished first and second in the Junior Circuit in strikeouts, with 274 and 252, respectively. Kansas City Royals reliever Wade Davis posted a minuscule 0.94 ERA while assuming closer's duties from the injured Greg Holland. And there are other fringe names you could toss onto the heap.
Again, though, this is unambiguously a showdown between a pair of southpaw studs: Keuchel and Price.
Prediction
Keuchel, the bearded 27-year-old who hurled Houston into the playoffs, posted a 2.48 ERA and 1.017 WHIP with 216 strikeouts in an AL-leading 232 innings.
Price, the 30-year-old trade-deadline acquisition who helped get Toronto over the postseason hump, posted an AL-leading 2.45 ERA and 1.076 WHIP with 225 strikeouts in 220.1 innings.
Those are strikingly similar stat lines, which explains why Price's 6.4 WAR and Keuchel's 6.1 WAR are also neck-and-neck.
This is basically a push, so we'll give it to Keuchel for the freshness factor, since Price has been here before—winning the award in 2012—while Keuchel is coming off a legitimate breakout campaign.
NL Cy Young Award
6 of 8
Finalists
Jake Arrieta, RHP (CHC)
Zack Greinke, RHP (LAD)
Clayton Kershaw, LHP (LAD)
Snubs
The Nats' Max Scherzer did throw a pair of no-hitters, so...you know what? No. Sorry. We can't muster a case for anyone but the trio of Arrieta/Greinke/Kershaw. So let's just dive right in.
Prediction
How much do BBWAA voters love ERA? That's the question that could decide this race.
Greinke's mark of 1.66 was the best of any qualifying starter in the 21st century, per Baseball-Reference.com. The rest of his stats were excellent, too, but that's his Cy Young case, wrapped up in a rosin bag.
Arrieta, meanwhile, posted a pretty-dang-excellent 1.77 ERA and threw more innings than Greinke (229 to 222.2), amassed more strikeouts (236 to 200) and twirled a no-hitter of his own.
Then there's Kershaw, the reigning NL Cy Young and MVP, who posted a 2.13 ERA but led the pack in innings (232.2), strikeouts (301) and WAR (8.6).
Chicago and Los Angeles each made the playoffs. And while the Dodgers did it as NL West champs and the Cubs as a wild-card team, the Cubs won more games and played in a much tougher division, so that's no good as a tiebreaker.
Being teammates, it's possible that Greinke and Kershaw could split some votes. But we just keep returning to Greinke's ridiculous ERA, and we're betting enough BBWAA members will, too.
AL MVP
7 of 8
Finalists
Lorenzo Cain, OF (KC)
Josh Donaldson, 3B (TOR)
Mike Trout, OF (LAA)
Snubs
Just like with many of the other races, Donaldson and Trout are the no-brainer top two, leaving room for debate only in that third spot.
Cain had a great year for the Royals, posting a .307/.361/.477 slash line while providing typically stellar defense in center field. But there's a case to be made for a pair of Baltimore Orioles: Chris Davis, who paced MLB with 47 home runs, and Manny Machado, who finished third in the AL with a 6.8 WAR.
As Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun pointed out, both Davis and Machado should get plenty of top-10 votes when the full results are announced.
Enough preamble, though. Let's get on to this epic Trout/Donaldson clash.
Prediction
Trout, who is somehow still just 24, posted a .299 average and .991 OPS to go along with 41 home runs and an AL-best 9.0 WAR.
Donaldson, meanwhile, put up a .297 average, 41 home runs, .939 OPS and 8.7 WAR, along with an eye-popping 123 RBI.
Both also played exemplary defense at premium positions.
If you use the playoff argument, Donaldson gets points, since Toronto won its division while the Halos finished in a disappointing third place.
This one's almost too close to call. But Trout's slight edge in WAR and—more importantly—his undeniable, face-of-the-league star wattage give him the narrowest of advantages.
OK, fire away, Donaldson supporters. You have plenty of ammunition.
NL MVP
8 of 8
Finalists
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (ARI)
Bryce Harper, OF (WAS)
Joey Votto, 1B (CIN)
Snubs
The only real snubs here are the trio of pitchers up for the NL Cy Young Award, any of whom would also make a worthy MVP candidate.
After giving the MVP to Kershaw last year, though, it's no surprise BBWAA voters shied away from the Senior Circuit's arsenal of arms.
Prediction
Goldschmidt (.321/.435/.570, 33 HR, 110 RBI) and Votto (.314/.459/.541, 29 HR, 80 RBI) are excellent also-rans. But they're also-rans nonetheless.
This prize is Harper's all the way.
The brash Nats outfielder led the NL in OPS (1.109), tied for the lead in home runs (42) and topped baseball with a 9.5 WAR.
Yes, Washington suffered through an epically disappointing, dysfunctional year. But at the tender age of 23, Harper shot through the stratosphere and into MLB's firmament of stars.
"Definitely very fortunate to play this game every single day," Harper told MLB Network's Fran Charles and Mike Lowell on Monday after winning most outstanding player in the NL, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.
Whatever you think about his outsized personality, we're fortunate to watch him play.
All statistics current as of Nov. 10 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
