Has Pep Guardiola Done Enough to Earn Mega-Extension at Bayern Munich?

Heading into the international break, the primary buzz surrounding Bayern Munich is the upcoming negotiations over coach Pep Guardiola's possible contract extension.

Club officials have repeatedly expressed their desire to retain the trainer past the end of his current deal, which expires at the end of next June. But Guardiola has yet to accept a new deal, and the fans and the club are becoming restless.

Following last weekend's win over Stuttgart, Bayern president Karl-Heinz Rummenigge told Sky (h/t Deutsche Welle) that negotiations would take place during the winter break, and that there would be "a Christmas surprise, one way or another."

That Guardiola is a coveted coach is in no question, and Bayern have positioned themselves as pursuers of the his signature. In Germany and abroad, there have been recent reports about the offer the Bavarians are prepared to make to secure Guardiola's extension.

German television channel Sport 1 reported over the weekend that Bayern are prepared to offer Guardiola an annual wage of €15 million (£10.5 million) to extend his contract by two years, until the end of the 2017-18 campaign.

John Cross of the Mirror has since claimed a deal of the same duration but an even more sensational wage figure of £17 million, or approximately €24 million per year at current exchange rates.

The Mirror reports that Guardiola's contract is laden with performance-based bonuses, with the £17 million being a best-case scenario for the trainer.

Whether €15 million or more, Guardiola's wage is the highest ever paid by the Bavarians to any of its staff. The reputable Fussball-Geld.de (in German) cites Franck Ribery and Mario Gotze as joint-top earners at Bayern, with €12 million (£8.4 million) contracts as of last November. And SportBild (in German) reported in 2012 that Guardiola's predecessor at Bayern, Jupp Heynckes, had earned a base salary of €5 million (£3.5 million) per year.

Suffice to say, it appears that Bayern are willing to pay an enormous wage to Guardiola. The question is, is he worth it?

In terms of end-of-year titles, Guardiola brought the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal to Munich in 2014. Earlier this year, he won "just" the Bundesliga.

These are achievements, but many are not entirely satisfied; the trainer had, after all, inherited a team that had just won a treble and reached the Champions League final in three of the previous four seasons with far less investment in transfer fees and player wages. And certainly less in coach salary.

At the same time, many are convinced that Guardiola, 44, is the man to lead Bayern forward. Many believe that the board more or less accepted a transition period for the former Barcelona man to develop his team, and that we now are seeing the fruits of his labor.

It's hard to deny that they are looking to be at their best since Guardiola's arrival, and the best club in Europe at the moment. On the other hand, they have won nothing yet in 2015-16, and it would be a mistake to call any title a given.

However, Bayern cannot simply wait until April or May, when titles are won, to decide whether to move to extend Guardiola's contract. As with Heynckes in 2012-13, they have to decide earlier and plan for the future without entirely knowing what they have at present.

In Heynckes' case, the decision was made to pursue Guardiola rather than wait for the veteran trainer to make up his mind. He would go on to lead his team to a treble.

This time, Bayern's management is putting itself behind their coach, assuming Guardiola is indeed the best way forward. It's a risk. And especially with the wages offered.

Guardiola is the best-paid coach in football, and a look to Stamford Bridge will reveal just how dangerous it is to offer exorbitant wages to a trainer.

Jose Mourinho had developed the best team in the Premier League at Chelsea in the spring and then signed a new deal in the summer, per John Downes of the Daily Mail. Now, though, the Blues are languishing not far from the relegation zone.

One must not assume the worst will come when offering a contract; if in doubt, another trainer should be recruited. But Mourinho's experience nonetheless should be a warning sign.

Given the resources available to Guardiola, based on titles won and performance in all competitions at Bayern Munich, it's hard to justify his being the best-paid coach in history. There are other Bayern coaches who have won more on far, far lesser wages relative to other trainers at the time. If Guardiola was being rewarded for winning a treble with much credit to his coaching brilliance, it might be another case.

Instead, Bayern have chosen to "pay it forward," assuming they'll get their money's worth in the long-run.

It's a risk that cost Heynckes the right to decide whether to stick around. And it appears that Bayern are unwilling to make the same risk again, to support their trainer and hope for the best.

@Mr_Bundesliga