UFC 194: Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor Early Main Card Preview and Predictions
UFC 193 was quite the event, huh? Ronda Rousey dropping the title to Holly Holm via emphatic knockout? How crazy was that?
Well, buckle in, fight fans, because you ain't seen nothin' yet. Enter UFC 194, one of the most thoroughly stacked cards in recent years and home to one of the most highly anticipated fights in UFC history: the featherweight title unification match between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor. The full card is as follows:
Main Card (PPV)
- Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor
- Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold
- Ronaldo Souza vs. Yoel Romero
- Demian Maia vs. Gunnar Nelson
- Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
- Urijah Faber vs. Frankie Saenz
- Tecia Torres vs. Michelle Waterson
- Warlley Alves vs. Colby Covington
- Leonardo Santos vs. Kevin Lee
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
- Joe Proctor vs. Magomed Mustafaev
- John Makdessi vs. Yancy Medeiros
- Court McGee vs. Marcio Alexandre Jr.
That's quite the lineup of fights, and this is your chance to get the early lowdown on what is going to pass on December 12 in Las Vegas. Who are these people and why are these fights important? Read on and find out.
Demian Maia vs. Gunnar Nelson
1 of 5
Division: Welterweight
Records: Demian Maia (21-6), Gunnar Nelson (14-1-1)
Fan of grappling matches? If so, this fight might be an absolute treat.
Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson are two of the greatest submission artists in the sport today, with a total of 20 submissions in 35 combined wins. Both men have an uncanny ability to drag foes to the ground and, from there, sucker them into giving up a limb or exposing their neck. That could make for an exciting, tactical battle should it hit the ground.
Of course, that's not at all guaranteed. More than a few fights between top-notch grapplers have wound up devolving into tentative striking matches, and it's entirely possible that this fight could turn into a stinker.
Regardless of which way it goes, however, the odds lie in the veteran's favor. Maia's tricky southpaw game never ceases to fluster less than highly experienced fighters, and that should make the difference here.
Prediction: Demian Maia def. Gunnar Nelson by unanimous decision
Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens
2 of 5
Weight Class: Featherweight
Records: Max Holloway (14-3), Jeremy Stephens (24-11)
The UFC is taking a page out of Bellator's book here and hedging its bets at UFC 194. With the featherweight and middleweight titles on the line in the main and co-main events, the UFC has taken the precautionary measure of adding potential fill-ins to the card. In this case, should anything go wrong with either Jose Aldo or Conor McGregor in the main event, Max Holloway is ready to slide in on a moment's notice.
He's a strong choice, too. Since dropping a unanimous decision to McGregor back in 2013, Holloway has been a perfect 7-0. His most impressive win came over Cub Swanson, where he demonstrated top-notch skills in every area of the cage before finishing the veteran striker in the third round with a guillotine choke.
The current plan, however, is for Holloway to face Jeremy Stephens.
Lil' Heathen has always fit into a kind of gatekeeper role with his simplistic (yet effective) "plod forward and throw right hands" style. A dark-horse run to the 145-pound title was nixed by the aforementioned Swanson, and that was followed up by a similarly disappointing loss to Charles Oliveira.
While it seemed he was going to fade into the middle of a crowded featherweight division, however, he managed to retain top-10 relevance by defeating Dennis Bermudez at UFC 189. This fight affords him the chance to do one better, and potentially jump back into the title picture.
Picking this one is tough, entirely because of Stephens' immense punching power. That said, Holloway has the smarts and the tools to put on the same kind of performance Oliveira did and control Stephens en route to a win with the judges.
Prediction: Max Holloway def. Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision
Ronaldo Souza vs. Yoel Romero
3 of 5
Weight Class: Middleweight
Records: Ronaldo Souza (22-3, 1 NC), Yoel Romero (10-1)
Like Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Yoel Romero functions as a contingency plan for one of the headlining fights. Unlike Holloway vs. Stephens, however, both men competing here could reasonably be slotted into a title fight today.
Much like Holloway, Souza has been on an absolute tear since losing to his division's top contender. Long known for his Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Souza has rounded out his overall game by adding heavy punches alongside some improved wrestling. That makes him an amazingly dynamic threat and, arguably, the man that should be facing off with Chris Weidman in the co-main event.
All that said, don't sleep on Romero. A two-time Olympian who took home a silver medal in 2000, Romero's wrestling resume is as good as anyone's in the UFC. Add to that his titanium fists, and you have somebody that could end any opponent in a blink.
This is, perhaps, the toughest fight to call on the card, but the edge here goes to Romero. While Souza is likely the better all-around mixed martial artist, the three-round length favors Romero's wrestling-focused style. Look for him to overpower Souza and either beat him by decision or force him into mistakes late.
Prediction: Yoel Romero def. Ronaldo Souza by TKO in Round 3
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Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold
4 of 5
Division: Middleweight
Records: Chris Weidman (13-0), Luke Rockhold (14-2)
It's always tough to take the belt off a legend. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson faced major backlash from fans when he demolished Chuck Liddell back in 2007. Frankie Edgar never quite resonated with the general population, despite twice beating B.J. Penn. Johny Hendricks? More of the same (except he lost to an MMA legend).
Chris Weidman, though, is starting to gain ground with fans who are finally accepting that the Anderson Silva era is over. Unfortunately his opponent, Luke Rockhold, has the skills to undo a lot of that progress.
In most ways, Weidman is a fully realized version of the "wrestle boxers" that dominated the early- and mid-aughts. His bread is buttered by his almost unstoppable takedowns, and the mere threat of them works to keep better overall strikers at bay. That could make for a lengthy title reign, but the grandmaster of Legitsu is a tough draw for anyone, including Weidman.
Rockhold hasn't quite exploded in popularity the way some thought he would after getting called up from Strikeforce, but his UFC career has been defined by impressive finishes. Every aspect of his game can be described as "opportunistic," and that can lead to organ-destroying body kicks or absurd submissions.
This fight is tough to call, but there's one formula that almost always works when predicting a title fight. Weidman is the better pure wrestler and has the champion's advantage. While it would be unwise to sleep on Rockhold, the most likely outcome is for the All-American to retain.
Prediction: Chris Weidman def. Luke Rockhold by unanimous decision
Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor
5 of 5
Weight Class: Featherweight
Records: Jose Aldo (25-1), Conor McGregor (18-2)
At long last, Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor are set to face off. Maybe. Hopefully...
Assuming the fight actually happens, everything I said about Aldo vs. McGregor back when I previewed it at UFC 189 remains true today:
"Aldo is one of the pound-for-pound greatest fighters in the game today and, arguably, ranks among the greatest of all time. His devastating striking game, built around a timely jab and a devastating leg kick, is inherently low-risk, high-reward, but his sheer power and ferocity leaves opponents wearing punches even when his output is low.
McGregor, like Lyoto Machida before him, is a unique fighter who has challenged fans' and pundits' preconceived notions of what techniques work at the highest level of mixed martial arts. A long fighter who fights even longer, McGregor's left hand is a lethal weapon that has left almost all comers in a heap.
It is a fight between men with wildly contrasting styles that pull one another out of their comfort zones, and it is a fight that will be decided on which one can better adjust to his foe.
"
The one thing that changes between UFC 189 and UFC 194? My prediction.
While I was feeling bullish on McGregor's chances to the point where I predicted him to beat Aldo at UFC 189, that has changed since the Irishman's fight against Chad Mendes. Yes, McGregor's wrestling defense was "exposed" as less-than-steely back at UFC 189, but that isn't the big trouble here.
McGregor, as many forecast, looked cockier than ever against Mendes. While he obviously managed to get through the fight in impressive fashion, he continues to be more and more willing to take hits in order to give them.
That's not a formula for a lengthy career, and it's not a formula to beat Aldo. Look for the champ to work his jab and keep McGregor at range long enough to win over the judges.
Prediction: Jose Aldo def. Conor McGregor by unanimous decision
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