Brazilian Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Interlagos Race
The Formula One world championship battle may be done and dusted, but there's still a lot to play for as the drivers and teams arrive at Sao Paulo's Interlagos circuit for the 2015 Brazilian Grand Prix.
Nico Rosberg's dominant victory in Mexico—on the back of his fourth consecutive pole position—saw the balance of power within the Mercedes team wobble a little. Lewis Hamilton may have sealed his third world title at the U.S. Grand Prix in October, but he's at risk of losing some momentum ahead of the 2016 season.
Hamilton would like nothing more than a crushing 11th race win of the season at a track that has not been kind to him in the past, and we expect him to achieve just that.
Sebastian Vettel could also do with a good result after a terrible outing in Mexico, while Ferrari team-mate Kimi Raikkonen absolutely has to perform. A driver of his calibre in the field's second-best car should finish a minimum of fourth in the standings, but Valtteri Bottas of Williams currently holds that position.
The fight of the Finns will be one of the highlights of the final two rounds—and we think Raikkonen can seize the advantage ahead of the Abu Dhabi race on November 29.
The changeable Interlagos weather can throw up all manner of surprise results; even a certain bet can easily go out of the window. But it's always worth trying, so here are our top five bold predictions for the weekend ahead.
Kimi Raikkonen Will Make a Return to the Podium
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Kimi Raikkonen is one of the greatest natural talents of the 21st century to date. On many days in the mid-2000s, he was the match of Michael Schumacher, and to this writer's eyes, he appeared to have a higher performance ceiling than Fernando Alonso.
Any fan who recalls that Raikkonen—and the one that surfaced briefly at Lotus—must wonder what went wrong. Raikkonen has had three full-time Ferrari team-mates since his title win in 2007, and he has been outperformed by every single one.
It was a close-run thing with Felipe Massa, but Alonso destroyed Raikkonen in 2014 and Sebastian Vettel has taken up where the Spaniard left off. The Finn has only outqualified Vettel in a straight fight on two occasions in 2015, and he's finished ahead just three times.
But Raikkonen remains confident things are set to change. Speaking after the Mexican Grand Prix, he told Sky Sports F1, "Hopefully at one point, certain things will turn around and we'll start getting good results."
"It's not nice for me or for the team, but it's a part of a game, and unfortunately we've been going through that for quite a while. I'm sure we will get a good result."
In Brazil, perhaps?
All worms turn sooner or later, and Raikkonen still possesses enough talent to beat Vettel on the odd occasion. He's due to do it again some time soon, so we're going to take a slightly optimistic punt on the 36-year-old being the top Ferrari in Brazil.
And that should, if all goes to plan, give him his third podium of the season.
Lewis Hamilton Will Win by a Mile...or, at the Very Least, by a Kilometre
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Interlagos will always hold a special place in Lewis Hamilton's heart. His overtake of Timo Glock at the final corner on the final lap at the final race of the 2008 season earned him his first F1 world championship by just a single point.
However, it's probably not his favourite track.
He lost the title here by the same margin the season before after finishing seventh, and despite always having (fairly) competitive cars, Hamilton has only been on the Brazilian podium twice—in 2009 and 2014.
It's the only current track on which the 30-year-old has raced more than twice and never won—but we think he's set to break his Brazilian duck this weekend.
The three-time world champion qualified and finished second last season, but his race-pace advantage over winner Nico Rosberg was clear for all to see. Hamilton was stuck to his team-mate's tail the whole race and would have "overcut" Rosberg at the pit stops had he not made an error and spun.
Furthermore, he really, really needs to put Rosberg in his place—the German has reeled off four consecutive poles and beat him with relative ease last time out in Mexico.
Hamilton has to win, and in an ideal world he'd like to do it in crushing style. An average mile around Interlagos (at 2014 fastest lap pace) takes 27.48 seconds, while an average kilometre takes 17.08 seconds.
We think the latter of the two is a realistic figure to aim for, so we'll back Hamilton take pole, set the fastest lap and win by, at the very least, one full kilometre.
Force India to Outscore Red Bull and Williams
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Force India started the 2015 season with a relatively underdeveloped chassis. It wasn't a horrible car, but in the early part of the year, it was at best the seventh-fastest—behind Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams, Red Bull, Lotus and Toro Rosso.
Often, the Sauber C33 was quicker too. After five races, Force India were a lowly eighth in the constructors' championship standings with just 11 points to their name.
But as the races passed by, the team were slowly adding new parts to the car. The British Grand Prix saw the debut of a radical new nose design, and the car was finally developed enough to be considered a "B-spec."
By the end of the 10th round of the season, they had 39 points and were embroiled in a tight battle for fifth, sixth and seventh in the teams' standings. Seven races later, they have 112 points—just 60 fewer than fourth-placed Red Bull.
Force India aren't going to catch their Austrian rivals, but they could certainly close the gap. In the very capable hands of Sergio Perez and Nico Hulkenberg, the VJM08B is a genuine threat to the established top four teams, and we can see an upset occurring this weekend.
On a similar strategy, Hulkenberg had near-identical pace to the Williams cars in Mexico and had the one-stopping Red Bulls in his sights, too. One-stopping Perez struggled in traffic, but in clean air, he, too, could have joined the party.
Interlagos is a short circuit where one- or two-tenths can make the difference between fifth and ninth on the grid—and a car with a powerful engine is very difficult to overtake.
It's a bit of long shot, but we're backing Force India to do a good job on Saturday and be the third highest-scoring team on Sunday.
And if anything unexpected happens at Mercedes or Ferrari, another podium isn't out of the question.
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3 Fun, Close 2-Team Battles and Lots of Irritated, Silver-Starved Mercedes Fans
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In part due to the late safety car, the Mexican Grand Prix saw one of the best two-team battles of the season so far.
In the white corner, Williams duo Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa finished the race in third and sixth, respectively; in the purple corner, the Red Bulls of Daniil Kvyat and Daniel Ricciardo were fourth and fifth.
The nature of the circuit dulled the duel somewhat—following close behind another car proved extremely difficult—but it still produced two of the grand prix's highlights. Ricciardo's pass on Massa was one of the best of the race, while Bottas passing Kvyat, albeit in a less-exciting manner, was decisive in the fight for the final podium position.
Such scraps are always good fun to watch, and we think the two teams will be locked in another this weekend.
So, too, will be the four teams with the most to gain or lose in this race—those fighting over sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth in the constructors' championship.
The blend of long, power-hungry straights and a twisty infield should see Lotus and Toro Rosso very evenly matched, while McLaren should have a happier time here than they had in Mexico—putting them within range of Sauber.
With a bit of luck, there won't be too many grid penalties and in-race reliability will be good—giving the producer three great battles to choose from when he decides Mercedes aren't interesting enough to watch.
Top Rookie: Max Verstappen
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Interlagos is the latest in a string of circuits at which some of the 2015 rookies have no prior experience. Alexander Rossi is one of the exceptions—he raced in (and won) two races at the circuit at the end of his dominant 2008 Formula BMW Americas season.
Interestingly, Driver DB records that a certain Felipe Nasr made his single-seater debut at that very same meeting. Both men then headed to Europe; neither has raced competitively at Interlagos since.
Experience of a circuit is always useful, especially as Manor and Sauber lack the sophisticated simulators used by their wealthier rivals. But even with their knowledge, Nasr and Rossi—along with the American's team-mate, Will Stevens—are likely to be also-rans in the race to be top rookie in Brazil.
The late-season development race has seen Toro Rosso overtake Lotus to become solid points contenders. Max Verstappen in particular has taken advantage of this upturn in competitiveness, scoring points at seven of the last eight races.
Carlos Sainz Jr. has suffered more misfortune than the 18-year-old Dutchman, but—whether he's been trying too hard or just isn't quite as good—he has also failed to match Verstappen's performances.
There's a strong temptation to back Sainz purely because he needs a big performance. He only has 18 points compared to Verstappen's 47, and it won't look good if the gulf isn't closed slightly before the end of the year.
But even with a bold hat on, it's very difficult to see this particular form book being flipped on its head. Though the battle will be tight providing both have reliable cars, Verstappen is our tip to come out on top.
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