2015-16 NBA Draft Prospects Who Will Need Another Year of College
There are a number of prospects with NBA potential who aren't quite ready to ignite it.
Everyone develops at a different speed. Meanwhile, some players may have to wait for their turns to shine, depending on roster situations and overcrowding.
The following prospects will each have the chance to emerge as first-round picks in the future. But they'll need at least two more seasons in college to be able to fully maximize their draft stock, whether it's due to lack of polish or limited opportunity.
The freshmen included are expected to establish NBA potential in year No. 1 but have a better chance of selling it at higher value as sophomores.
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Kansas, SG)
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After only playing 11.2 minutes in 2014-15, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk's role should look bigger this upcoming season. Kansas could certainly use his shot-making ability and offensive versatility.
Still, having just turned 18 years old in June, he'll continue to be younger than most freshmen in the country.
And unless he's made some pretty dramatic strides, it's tough to envision Mykhailiuk selling himself as an NBA player after just 30-40 more games.
He only converted 11 of 33 shots inside the arc, and despite the jumper being viewed as a core strength, he shot just 28.8 percent from three. Based on last season, you just didn't get the impression he was one year away.
Mykhailiuk's potential remains intact, given his 6'8" size, perimeter ball skills and above-average athleticism. There just wouldn't be much of a point to prematurely declare. Mykhailiuk might as well gain a third year of college experience, considering he'll still be just 19 years old during his junior season.
Chinanu Onuaku (Louisville, C)
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Despite averaging just three points a game as a freshman, Chinanu Onuaku generated some buzz based on analytics and an efficient showing during this summer's FIBA U19 World Championship.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Without an offensive game (6.7 points per 40 minutes last year) or any real touch (46.7 percent from the line), Onuaku's only true selling points—finishing ability, rebounding presence and rim protection—just aren't strong enough to result in guaranteed first-round interest.
The ceiling for an undersized center (6'10") who doesn't score seems more likely to reflect backup potential. Chances are he'll need two seasons (not counting his freshman one, when he played 17.8 minutes and was used just 10.8 percent of the time, per Sports-Reference.com) in a full-time role to become more of a threat offensively with the ball.
For what it's worth, he hasn't exactly blown the Louisville media away by his preseason performances.
"Chinanu Onuaku now has more fouls (eight) than rebounds (seven). That's 16 fouls in two scrimmages. Not moving his feet or getting position," tweeted the Courier-Journal's Jeff Greer. "In the Red White scrimmages, let's just say Chinanu Onuaku has been less than impressive," tweeted Kent Spencer of WHAS.
Devin Robinson (Florida, SF/PF)
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Sophomore Devin Robinson surely has first-round potential fueled mostly by athleticism, defensive versatility and room for growth offensively—he'll likely just need two more years to convince NBA teams he's on track toward reaching it.
To ultimately maximize his stock, he'll have to convince scouts he projects as a small forward (as opposed to a power forward), given his 6'8", 195-pound size. At this stage, the numbers just don't suggest he'll be ready to effectively play the wing.
Robinson only shot 25.6 percent from three with an ugly 48.2 percent true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com. On top of a shaky jumper, he hasn't exactly established himself as a shot-creator in the half court. Of the 38 buckets he picked up at the rim, 22 of them (61.1 percent) were assisted, per Hoop-Math.com.
He'll need to become a more threatening shooter and one-on-one player to really generate serious first-round interest. And it's just tough to picture Robinson putting it all together during one more season at Florida. He looks a good two years away from solidifying himself as a top-30 prospect.
Daniel Hamilton (Connecticut, SG/SF)
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With 6'8" size, plus versatile playmaking (4.7 assists per 40 minutes) and scoring ability, sophomore Daniel Hamilton established himself as a potential prospect to watch for the future.
But chances are we'll be watching for another two years while he looks to maximize his draft stock. Hamilton still has a lot to figure out, both in terms of shot selection and execution.
He took 171 two-point jumpers and 134 threes to just 61 shots at the rim while averaging only 3.1 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes, per Hoop-Math.com. It's not exactly a recipe for offensive efficiency (shot 38 percent from the floor), especially since he's still a work in progress from outside (33.9 percent on two-point jumpers, 34.3 percent from three).
He'll also need to continue adding strength, as he finished just 46 percent inside the paint with that 195-pound frame, according to DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony.
I wouldn't bank on Hamilton completely fixing his 46.8 percent true shooting percentage, 16.6 percent turnover rate and attack game before the season's end. I could, however, see him making enough strides by 2017 to emerge as a first-round option.
Melo Trimble (Maryland, PG)
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Melo Trimble put up some giant numbers as a freshman, including 16.2 points per game, a whopping 207 made free throws and a terrific 41.2 percent clip from downtown.
But these stats were't enough to generate first-round interest in 2015. Trimble just doesn't have the size (6'2"), length (6'2" wingspan) and/or athleticism to successfully sell himself strictly as a scorer.
He'll have to become a more efficient passer and playmaker. Trimble only averaged three assists (just 3.6 per 40 minutes) and 2.5 turnovers, good for a negative pure point rating of minus 1.31, per RealGM.
And he didn't look particularly comfortable this summer at the Pan American Games, where he shot 21.1 percent and averaged more turnovers (1.6) than assists (1.4).
Evolving from a scorer into a point guard won't happen overnight. Dramatically improving his floor game—while maintaining high shooting percentages and offensive outputs—will be a difficult task to accomplish during just one 30-40-game season.
Unless he establishes himself as a facilitator, Trimble will have no reason to leave school, even if he manages to match last year's scoring average and three-point accuracy.
Jalen Brunson (Villanova, PG)
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A high-profile recruit and MVP of this summer's FIBA U19 World Championship, freshman Jalen Brunson is on the radar.
Unfortunately, his game and physical profile don't exactly scream upside. Limited size, length (measured 6'0 ½" in socks with 6'3" wingspan at FIBA this summer) and explosiveness project a ceiling that doesn't appear high enough for a general manager to justify reaching and waiting years to see results.
Plus, with senior Ryan Arcidiacono returning to Villanova's backcourt, Brunson may not even get the chance to fully showcase his floor game as a lead guard.
It seems reasonable to think he'll have a better shot to maximize his stock after his second year at Villanova.
Ivan Rabb (California, PF/C)
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Compared to the other highly touted freshmen, Ivan Rabb's journey to the pros could take a little longer.
He plays the game of a center—only his physical tools project him as an NBA forward. And at this point, Rabb hasn't developed the traditionally required skills for the position.
Though super athletic with great hands, he's only 220 pounds, and lacks polish in the post and credible touch around the perimeter.
And at California, where he'll likely play the 5 this season, Rabb won't have much of a chance to improve his jumper or one-on-one game, especially in a lineup with expected ball-dominant guards and wings (Tyrone Wallace, Jaylen Brown, Jabari Bird, Jordan Mathews). He'll be more of a catch-and-finish target than a featured scorer.
Before declaring, Rabb could easily need two years in college to build his body and reps as a scorer.
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