Notre Dame Football: Irish's Road to College Football Playoff
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Just like everyone expected, Notre Dame Fighting Irish football checked in fifth in the initial College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night.
Right?
The Irish are ahead of undefeated Baylor (7-0), Michigan State (8-0), TCU (8-0) and Iowa (8-0), plus one-loss Florida (7-1) and Stanford (7-1).
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The rankings can change weekly based on win quality, not just the bottom-line result. But the Irish are in a strong position with four regular-season games remaining.
Where Notre Dame Stands
| 1. Clemson | 8-0 | 12 |
| 2. LSU | 7-0 | 17 |
| 3. Ohio State | 8-0 | 47 |
| 4. Alabama | 7-1 | 3 |
| 5. Notre Dame | 7-1 | 5 |
| 6. Baylor | 7-0 | 54 |
| 7. Michigan State | 8-0 | 42 |
| 8. TCU | 8-0 | 36 |
| 9. Iowa | 8-0 | 52 |
| 10. Florida | 7-1 | 6 |
The Irish are the second-highest-ranked one-loss team, trailing just No. 4 Alabama (7-1). The Crimson Tide have defeated Wisconsin (7-2 record), Georgia (5-3) and Texas A&M (6-2), among others. None of their wins have come against teams in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has topped Navy (6-1), USC (5-3) and Temple (7-1). The Owls earned the No. 22 spot in this week’s playoff poll. Alabama lost by six points at home to No. 18 Ole Miss, while the only blemish for the Irish is a two-point loss to No. 1 Clemson on the road.
The Tigers (8-0) top the poll, while LSU (7-0) and Ohio State (8-0) round out the top three.
Help Needed
First and foremost, Notre Dame needs to take care of business over its final four games to lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Irish still must deal with Pitt (6-2), Wake Forest (3-6), Boston College (3-6) and Stanford down the stretch. And as we learned in last year’s inaugural playoff structure, wins don’t mean everything. A monster win, like a 59-0 drubbing in a conference title game (looking at you, Ohio State), can vault one team past another and leave some squads on the outside looking in.
That being said, four wins in these final four games will leave Notre Dame in outstanding shape. Two of the four teams ahead of the Irish (LSU and Alabama) meet Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, which will help Notre Dame in some way (if the Irish topple Pitt, of course).
LSU also faces No. 18 Ole Miss and Texas A&M to conclude its regular season, while Alabama still has No. 20 Mississippi State in mid-November. Clemson’s biggest remaining opportunity to strengthen its resume—and also the best chance for the Irish to receive some Clemson-related help—is this weekend when it hosts No. 16 Florida State.
No. 6 Baylor still has the resume-boosting opportunities it has so far lacked with November matchups against No. 15 Oklahoma, No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 8 TCU. No. 7 Michigan State gets a crack at No. 3 Ohio State in Columbus on Nov. 21, while the Horned Frogs still have Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, too, plus Baylor in their regular-season finale.
No. 9 Iowa (remaining opponents: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska) lacks big games in November, and No. 10 Florida’s only marquee game is against No. 16 Florida State on Nov. 28.
As long as Notre Dame handles its own business, the Irish likely won’t need too much assistance. Asked Tuesday (before the rankings were announced) how much he considers the help his team might need, Irish head coach Brian Kelly reframed the question.
“We won't think much about it at all, other than talking about what we need to do, what we need to do better as a football team,” Kelly said. “There are a lot of areas within each group that we felt like after the Temple game that we've got to focus all of our time and energy on if we want to be in this conversation next week and then the week after.”
Final Bowl Prediction
Notre Dame is certainly capable of winning its final four regular-season games. In fact, the Irish could even be favored in all four tilts, though a one-loss Stanford team at home likely holds the edge.
Notre Dame shouldn’t have much trouble with Wake Forest and Boston College in a pair of home environments. Pittsburgh does present a trap-game possibility, but we expect Notre Dame to improve to 8-1 come Saturday evening.
So it all comes down to Stanford. The Irish already went into one raucous road environment this season against a highly ranked opponent and nearly came away with a victory. Right now, we see Notre Dame, with its veteran leadership, prevailing in a potential play-in game.
The last question in this hypothetical, then, is could the Irish get jumped? It’s possible. But at No. 5 in the first poll with two-thirds of the season finished, Notre Dame is in good shape.
Prediction: Top 4
All quotes were obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Mike Monaco is the lead Notre Dame writer for Bleacher Report. Follow @MikeMonaco_ on Twitter.
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